rnaude241 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Another 12+ for EMA WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Dont jump the gun boys. Blending is still a good idea but the pathetic bone dry runs just didn't jive with H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 cweat must be trying to find something that went wrong on that run Right, looking for the nail in the coffin for the GFS to fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 got to feel bad for ryan wonder what he does at 11I would be honestSay there are 2 camps GFS, and everything else...say what can happen in each. And then say, my gut tells me to go with...but it could wind up being ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 If only the GFS could be believed verbatim... The weenie in me is holding on to hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This storm is a beast. Nearly impossible to pin down a forecast. Its throwing wrenches left and right.Its one of those times where you know its gonna be really bad but just not exactly where! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Dont jump the gun boys. Blending is still a good idea but the pathetic bone dry runs just didn't jive with H5. Well the NAM and RGEM alreayd both half-caved at 00z...but the full cave makes a big difference. A half-cave is still that 6-10 type deal ORH-eastward. Maybe a bit less on the RGEM...more like 4-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't expect GFS to make much of a move at all It was really consistent...now the whole region gets a blizzard. It's either brilliant, or choking on the offshore initial conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Tough forecast if you are going on at 11. Meh, just add a + to the higher totals. E MA 8-12"+ would work, focus the coverage on Boston anyway for mass, where an easier forecast of "lots of snow and wind don't go outside stay safe" will almost definitely verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't think I buy the widespread 12"+ on the GFS, but I also don't buy a deepening low over the benchmark with zero precip in SNE like the RGEM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Well the NAM and RGEM alreayd both half-caved at 00z...but the full cave makes a big difference. A half-cave is still that 6-10 type deal ORH-eastward. Maybe a bit less on the RGEM...more like 4-8. I know we're zeroing in, but I'd still be very curious to see how the 00z Euro trends/caves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm not all in yet, but I'm definitely counting my chips and considering increasing my bet after that GFS run. Here's how I see it. At 12z, all the guidance except the GFS goes east despite having arguably better looks in the midlevels. GFS is assumed out to lunch. At 18z, all the guidance except the GFS goes way further east despite having similar or better looks aloft. GFS is consistent, and now raises some eyebrows. At 0z, all the guidance to date has now come back substantially west with a similar look aloft to the 18z run. GFS holds, but now has the other guidance trending towards it and arguably some support from the other guidance with the midlevel look. One can argue that the GFS is "seeing" the potential in the midlevels while the other models are not and that having the others trend towards it validates that the GFS is at least not completely clueless. I can't commit to it 100% because it's still a fairly large outlier, but I have a lot more eggs in it's basket than I did at 18z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This storm is a beast. Nearly impossible to pin down a forecast. Its throwing wrenches left and right. Its one of those times where you know its gonna be really bad but just not exactly where! Eastport Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS after doubling down at 18z...just double downed again. They split their blackjack hand and got double downs on each split.... Epic epic epic epic epic epic epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Gfs after people saying it would fold 12+ for all of eastern ma, really impressive solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't think I buy the widespread 12"+ on the GFS, but I also don't buy a deepening low over the benchmark with zero precip in SNE like the RGEM shows. I think RGEM is making that show up as Virga. (dry air) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Just watching the radar coming over the great lakes and OH/PA. Seems as though the heavier precip is slightly further SW than some of the modeling and the approach looks is slightly different angle. It'd be interesting to see where this exists offshore on the transfer. If it happens further south may give us a better chance for this to Bomb over the BM/earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Does anyone actually expect Euro to hold at this point? Two hours to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I know we're zeroing in, but I'd still be very curious to see how the 00z Euro trends/caves. Yeah I would too...it's a pretty big difference right now. We aren't 60 hours out anymore...this is a 30-36 hour forecast for the important part of the storm (the models are in decent agreement on the WAA stuff tomorrow afternoon) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This could certainly help atone for some of its past sins if the GFS could pull of the coup here. Amazing how the GFS is playing the role of the Euro. Very strange indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Nothing out of the ordinary, basic 496 ULLs don"t produce, out on the Cape is where NC forecaster should park, thats one of the most intense soundings I can recall and totally unstable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Does anyone actually expect Euro to hold at this point? Two hours to go I don't think a complete hold is likely, but a full conversion to GFSism probably isn't too likely either. We may very well end up with a middle of the road solution between the two, as the old anecdote goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Right, looking for the nail in the coffin for the GFS to fail. So you believe all of SNE gets a blizzard? Hey I hope it happens, it clobbers everyone. But given the situation, I'll take the RGEM, and NAM together. If the EUro suddenly comes way west, hats off to everyone that thought this was a regionwide blizzard like the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 gfs is pretty much a blizzard for all of sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Eastport Maine. Only thing in eastport maine right now is snow (They just broke the maine record for most snow in 10 days @ 76 inches!) I am talking more so about trying to pin down the southern CCB and how far inland things actually come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Gfs after people saying it would fold 12+ for all of eastern ma, really impressive solution GFS was much stronger out of the gate, hence the comment about ML monkeys loving it. I hope it's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 So you believe all of SNE gets a blizzard? Hey I hope it happens, it clobbers everyone. But given the situation, I'll take the RGEM, and NAM together. If the EUro suddenly comes way west, hats off to everyone that thought this was a regionwide blizzard like the 0z GFS. I highly doubt I get a blizzard in this area...no matter what the GFS says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Harvey going 12"+ basically inside of 128 ont he 11pm newscast...and the south shore that sticks out. Essex county of course too. 8-12 for ORH up through ASH and down to E CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 i hope its right i kind of want to see how the public reacts So you believe all of SNE gets a blizzard? Hey I hope it happens, it clobbers everyone. But given the situation, I'll take the RGEM, and NAM together. If the EUro suddenly comes way west, hats off to everyone that thought this was a regionwide blizzard like the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 If only the GFS could be believed verbatim... The weenie in me is holding on to hope I can slide it back out if you want... but you're so warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.