TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 18z RGEM vs 00z RGEM....it improved by all objective measures. Even for the QPF queens who scoff at the upper level stuff...hopeflly we cna get one more tick Thats a pretty good shift. Good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 WAA tomorrow afternoon could be prolific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That's actually a pretty sizeable shift there Will. Good catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Messenger wants to bet me. I don't bet wx any more. Wanna shovel for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 18z RGEM vs 00z RGEM....it improved by all objective measures. Even for the QPF queens who scoff at the upper level stuff...hopeflly we cna get one more tick You didn't use the same end point on the time though..18z Sunday vs 0z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Seeing the NAM and RGEM come significantly west makes me think that if the GFS holds, you have to at least give it some weight considering we're coming very close to go time and all guidance so far tonight has trended towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You didn't use the same end point on the time though..18z Sunday vs 0z Monday. May not matter for E MA but for Maine and NS yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You didn't use the same end point on the time though..18z Sunday vs 0z Monday. Nothing falls after 18z...so it doesn't matter. Not for SNE anyway. Something like 0.2mm fall over E MA after 18z which is an order of magnitude less than those maps...it wouldn't change the colors at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The dual Low on the CMC really looks funky. Usually with such a deep low and all that energy it wraps up pretty tight. I'm not buying that disbursed mess. I think we see a much better precip shield that what the CMC depicts and a solid wrap effect. No science behind it, just a hunch and typically how these deep storms have panned out in my experience here in EMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You didn't use the same end point on the time though..18z Sunday vs 0z Monday. That's because that graphic only goes to 48 hours. Here's 18z RGEM between 48 and 54 though, basically nothing for SNE and a coating to an inch in NNE. Still a major improvement across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You didn't use the same end point on the time though..18z Sunday vs 0z Monday. I did it shifted west, improved wAA and is another shift away from a NAM GFS solution, I like Boxs map. Bufkit is prolific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Messenger wants to bet me. I don't bet wx any more. Wanna shovel for me? That's an impossible bet because we would be stuck if we lost, and have to shovel two driveways. mid level monkeys are going to love the new GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't expect GFS to make much of a move at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Seeing the NAM and RGEM come significantly west makes me think that if the GFS holds, you have to at least give it some weight considering we're coming very close to go time and all guidance so far tonight has trended towards it. Yea, we give the gfs weight but I think it will tick east and move to more of a compromise. Just a hunch. If it holds steady then I'll get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Nothing falls after 18z...so it doesn't matter. Not for SNE anyway. Something like 0.2mm fall over E MA after 18z which is an order of magnitude less than those maps...it wouldn't change the colors at all. But it would have changed the colors on the 18z panel as it extended precip beyond 18z Sunday on both the 12 and 18z runs. So it's not quite an apples to apples comparison. Vs the 12z this run drops more early, but the earlier CMC stuff extended well into Sunday afternoon/evening which wouldn't have been capture on those charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 No sig changes on the GFS through 24hr vs. 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't expect GFS to make much of a move at allwatch it only get better lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 But it would have changed the colors on the 18z panel as it extended precip beyond 18z Sunday on both the 12 and 18z runs. So it's not quite an apples to apples comparison. Vs the 12z this run drops more early, but the earlier CMC stuff extended well into Sunday afternoon/evening which wouldn't have been capture on those charts. I posted the precip above between 18z sunday and 0z monday on the 18z run, it's essentially nothing for anyone except far northern NH and ME(Less than 0.02" QPF which wouldn't change any of the colors on those maps at that range). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 QPF ticking down. ASOUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You didn't use the same end point on the time though..18z Sunday vs 0z Monday. It was basically over except for a few flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 No sig changes on the GFS through 24hr vs. 18z. 18Z GFS on bufkit was 10-12 IJD east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Me like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 But it would have changed the colors on the 18z panel as it extended precip beyond 18z Sunday on both the 12 and 18z runs. So it's not quite an apples to apples comparison. Vs the 12z this run drops more early, but the earlier CMC stuff extended well into Sunday afternoon/evening which wouldn't have been capture on those charts. No it wouldn't have...0.2mm won't change color shading that is every 5mm or so...unless it was right on the line...you aren't changing ORH from 0.2 inches of QPF to 0.50" of QPF because we were missing post-18z when barely any measurable falls....00z RGEM was just a lot wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 gfs is sweet!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Brass nuts GFS looks like it holds. Hr 36 looks pretty sweet for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 the GFS should Kenny Rogers at 1030. Or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS is going to end up slightly NE of 18z I think, but it's still a really nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Between 14 more inches of snow on top of what you already have OTG in east Mass, and wind gusts to hurricane force over the weekend there, houses are gonna get covered up by drifts just like back in 1717. Congrats, enjoy, and stay safe! Can You Dig It???????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Can we just clarify that blizzard verification has basically zero to do with snowfall and intensity of snowfall. It's sustained winds and visibility. Those 2 elements we know we have in eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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