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Super Snow Sunday


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I don't think there is much problem driving up 93 to Loon tomorrow PM.  Loon has a NE exposure and I am just guessing but I would think with such high wind and low temperatures they may have to shut down on Sunday because of wind conditions.  Possibly Monday AM too. Tough 2 days to ski.  Tomorrow is actually the day to get out on the slopes, light winds and light snow in the PM

 

I thought the same thing, but according to the folks up there, the "bunny slopes" and ski school for the little kids is going to be open.  They said with so many cancellations that it'll pretty much be one-on-one with the instructors, and they'll just do 20 minutes outside, 10 minutes in, whatever the kids are feeling.  They're all young, like I mentioned.  The adults in this group, including myself, don't do the skiing thing anymore.  We're more "Have some drinks in the lodge and watch others work on the slopes" type folks. 

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I don't think there is much problem driving up 93 to Loon tomorrow PM. Loon has a NE exposure and I am just guessing but I would think with such high wind and low temperatures they may have to shut down on Sunday because of wind conditions. Possibly Monday AM too. Tough 2 days to ski. Tomorrow is actually the day to get out on the slopes, light winds and light snow in the PM

yea leave early ski all day check in after sking,drink wine Sunday, beast day for kids to be out,is anyone paying attention here?
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I hear that.  Problem is she can't check into the hotel until 4:00 p.m., so kind of tough to hang around with 5 kids (only 2 are mine, thankfully :) )under the age of 7 for too long, so don't want her to leave a whole lot earlier than she needs to either.  

you should be OK at 4 pm.. maybe some light stuff arriving

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FWIW 4KM nam at 0z has WAA snows until about 9pm over entire area. Then a dry slot starts pushing thru CT to RI to about BOS -WNW'ard at 1am while JUST NE of there keeps ripping... and then it sort of sags back West and sinks South of Boston in the wee hours as the Low starts to get a nice tuck W-WSW going between 4 and 7 am. By 7 am you can see the convective precip start to approach E MA shoreline from about 5 miles east of Clinch's house to over James weenie. At that time it looks like 10M winds are approx. 45 Knots sutained from Scituate to N shore of Cape Cod bay. By 9am it starts to push eastward and Moderate Snows wind down From Cape Ann to cape cod around 1pm .

 

FInal QPF on this map shows 1 pixel 1.75 jackpot over like NE Essex county and another larger 1.75-2.00 maximum from PTown S into Cape cod bay, as seen here.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_0z/ptot45.html

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FWIW 4KM nam at 0z has WAA snows until about 9pm over entire area. Then a dry slot starts pushing thru CT to RI to about BOS -WNW'ard at 1am while JUST NE of there keeps ripping... and then it sort of sags back West and sinks South of Boston in the wee hours as the Low starts to get a nice tuck W-WSW going between 4 and 7 am. By 7 am you can see the convective precip start to approach E MA shoreline from about 5 miles east of Clinch's house to over James weenie. At that time it looks like 10M winds are approx. 45 Knots sutained from Scituate to N shore of Cape Cod bay. By 9am it starts to push eastward and Moderate Snows wind down From Cape Ann to cape cod around 1pm .

FInal QPF on this map shows 1 pixel 1.75 jackpot over like NE Essex county and another larger 1.75-2.00 maximum from PTown S into Cape cod bay, as seen here.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_0z/ptot45.html

i like it.
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Some may want to close the blinds

 

The issue is way offshore..like I said I'm simplifying it, but the low "wants" to form WTF out there, unusually far east.  That struggle and that spinup robs a lot of the moisture inflow and what you get is a 498 ULL without the ability to drop a ton of moisture at speed.

 

MEH...but this frame does show the problems as the low spins up with the best contrast SE of the BM and rotates up into NS.  This is a system where the UCAR WV will show a huge purple area blossoming out there heading straight NE to NS, while a cake hole develops over us before it gets filled in some by the developing CCB.  But then it's already all rotating out anyway.

 

JMHO but the blizzard warnings have no shot of verifying in MA at the main stations.  At least unless there's a major init error, this is a run of the mill 2-4/3-6, maybe 4-8 in most of EMA with heavy winds.  High impact, but...unlikely we see three hours of heavy snow.

 

I_nw_r1_EST_2015021400_033.png

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FWIW 4KM nam at 0z has WAA snows until about 9pm over entire area. Then a dry slot starts pushing thru CT to RI to about BOS -WNW'ard at 1am while JUST NE of there keeps ripping... and then it sort of sags back West and sinks South of Boston in the wee hours as the Low starts to get a nice tuck W-WSW going between 4 and 7 am. By 7 am you can see the convective precip start to approach E MA shoreline from about 5 miles east of Clinch's house to over James weenie. At that time it looks like 10M winds are approx. 45 Knots sutained from Scituate to N shore of Cape Cod bay. By 9am it starts to push eastward and Moderate Snows wind down From Cape Ann to cape cod around 1pm .

 

FInal QPF on this map shows 1 pixel 1.75 jackpot over like NE Essex county and another larger 1.75-2.00 maximum from PTown S into Cape cod bay, as seen here.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_0z/ptot45.html

 

FWIW 4KM nam at 0z has WAA snows until about 9pm over entire area. Then a dry slot starts pushing thru CT to RI to about BOS -WNW'ard at 1am while JUST NE of there keeps ripping... and then it sort of sags back West and sinks South of Boston in the wee hours as the Low starts to get a nice tuck W-WSW going between 4 and 7 am. By 7 am you can see the convective precip start to approach E MA shoreline from about 5 miles east of Clinch's house to over James weenie. At that time it looks like 10M winds are approx. 45 Knots sutained from Scituate to N shore of Cape Cod bay. By 9am it starts to push eastward and Moderate Snows wind down From Cape Ann to cape cod around 1pm .

 

FInal QPF on this map shows 1 pixel 1.75 jackpot over like NE Essex county and another larger 1.75-2.00 maximum from PTown S into Cape cod bay, as seen here.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_0z/ptot45.html

that's a nice run for some

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I will say that the RGEM did kick the Jan Blizzard out waaay too fast, so perhaps it's doing the same thing again. Just something to keep in mind.

 

 

Yeah it ended it around 11am...was pretty bad on that front...it did nail the deformation band though that went down 495 and through ORH into Windham, County CT and lack of QPF west of there.

 

 

I actually thought this RGEM run was an improvement over 18z...18z was pretty terrible though so it was hard to get worse.

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Wrapping up by this time.

 

I_nw_r1_EST_2015021400_043.png

Do you have the 6z or 9z panels, what i'm seeing on some models is a heavy band that is the initial WAA stuff, make it to about Bos or NE mass (as dry slot pushes up to just SW of there) by 4z or so, and then that band sort of pivots NW and sinks south a bit and hangs out thru about 14z (which may match the maps of CMC you posted) . Now I'm just saying we have to watch for a Band of say 12-16"  or "SO" totals from BOS NE and maybe including part of Cape cod (maybe) and close to kissin You in Coastal PYM county. but Prob more like 10-13". Wouldn't necessarily forecast those amount but it's on the table IMO, especially Bos NE as some models are starting to key on area of enhancement in NE mass to SE NH and SW maine then sort of skip over the mid coast until you get to far eastern Maine, not that that will happen with regard to central Maine coast but worth watching as a good slug of precip was always going to go toward Machias, Eastport , Nova Scotia etc.

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1/26/11

 

Never said I get them all right, or even most, but I'll go deep on any additional dinner bets on this one if you'd like :)

 

We'll have some unforecast epic bands for a time, probably some OE, and of course my comments exclude extreme NE coastal MA to Bar Harbor...but....I don't see the Blizzard Warning verifying for say Taunton, or it even coming close.

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