Quincy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not buying some of the higher forecasts for CT, especially with the lackluster RGEM. Will post a map in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not buying some of the higher forecasts for CT, especially with the lackluster RGEM. Will post a map in a couple hours.might want to wait for 0z,things are changing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 might want to wait for 0z,things are changing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Tonight's 00z GFS will be really interesting. We're all pretty sure it's going to be some sort of a compromise, but a lean to the GFS would be huge for the entire region. Hopefully the upgraded res and performance is sniffing something out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Are srefs better or is that a mirage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 ~18z Sunday the winds on the outer cape, looking at the 12z euro, are >50mph. This is off eurowx. Homegrown map has GFS 925mb winds >90mph wrapping into Boston Harbor 18Z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41048 240 west of Bermuda, east of the Gulf Stream NW at 20 with a 44 degree dewpoint at 8pm. Not exactly a potent source region of low level moisture tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Are srefs better or is that a mirage? better out west about the same east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 As dry as it ever gets out there, instead of upper 50s and 60s on the dews, it's pushing to the low 40s. JMHO this is a major source of model init "issues".....these are not climo normal conditions. This may be the GFS Achilles heal, or it's savior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 better out west about the same east There were a few members at 15z that only had 0.10"-0.25" in CT so I bet those got wiped out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 FWIW SREF's look better in western areas Looks better (more snowy) than other modeling for KCON too. about .8 qpf and weenie ratio 19" mean one of the members is over 40" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You don't new Dewpoints near 60 with sub 500 heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Keep reminding selves.. We've never seen this set up before.. We've never seen this setup before. So we can't know what will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Keep reminding selves.. We've never seen this set up before.. We've never seen this setup before. So we can't know what will happen I remember a setup similar to this in January 92, it busted for everyone but the cape and islands, they even had us getting 3-5 in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Keep reminding selves.. We've never seen this set up before.. We've never seen this setup before. So we can't know what will happen If the models gave you 1.50" QPF would you be saying the same thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 If the models gave you 1.50" QPF would you be saying the same thing?I would think they were too high on qpf. I never base a forecast on modeled qpf. Usually draw from past experience, but can't do that with this one since its unique Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I remember a setup similar to this in January 92, it busted for everyone but the cape and islands, they even had us getting 3-5 in NYCwhat day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Keep reminding selves.. We've never seen this set up before.. We've never seen this setup before. So we can't know what will happen huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 what day I want to say 1/16 or 1/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 huh?Not one instance in history where we've had an ULL this strong take this track. Not one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Definitely a sizable jump on the SREFs back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not one instance in history where we've had an ULL this strong take this track. Not one I don't think that's true at all. I think there's only been one KU with a setup like this with such a deep/anomalous closed low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't think that's true at all. I think there's only been one KU with a setup like this with such a deep/anomalous closed low. Can you post a few examples ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not one instance in history where we've had an ULL this strong take this track. Not one Guess what. It's not modeled to be sub-500dm over SNE anymore. 498dm...504dm...516dm...whoopdeedoo. It's not a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 At this point, I'll hang my hat on anything... so gfs/sref combo it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 srefs with a good bump west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 nam looking better early on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Guess what. It's not modeled to be sub-500dm over SNE anymore. 498dm...504dm...516dm...whoopdeedoo. It's not a huge difference. Brian - why are you Debbying this? It's unbelievable! This is the most remarkable synoptic setup we've ever seen. Unprecedented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msg112469 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 huh? This guy from Tolland is having a melt down. Geeesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Holy crap that would be epic here. EPIC!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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