40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 RGEM an improvement from the extrapolated 6z on earlier extrapolated runs looked like it tracked too far south with a dual low structure that swung around to largely miss SNE too far east, sort of like GGEM. That was a red flag bothering me last night, and this 12z run is greatly reassuring. Likewise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 lol there are certainly reasons why a "screw zone" over CT/W Mass could happen. I wouldn't look at the RGEM/NAM and totally toss. It's completely possible that they're accurate with that depiction.Except that the Rgem gets the CCB cranking from 91 east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The hi res models are gonna do weird things with double lows or what have you in this setup. I wouldn't worry at the moment. It's just static stability screwing around with things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The RGEM still has a shaft zone though in parts of SNE much like the nam does The column is less than ideally saturable prior to this thing's arriving kinematics.. It's been plaguing all guidance types, and cycles there in, up to this point. I suspect the trends folks are noting re the steadily improving profile over all, is really just a result of the steadily strengthening depictions of the deep layer fields coming down with this thing, compensating. Note on that: Even at a mere 30 hours prior to said crossing the Apps cordillera, there is time for this thing to be more potent yet. For the general reader ... The current initialization is up in midriff Canada ... as the NAM would have it, over the western shores of James Bay. Now, I am less than certain of this, but I suspect that is not the best sampled region for the input grids. Perhaps someone with better specific knowledge wrt the assimilated vs physical sonding regions of the domains could atone for that .. One issue that's sort of taken a back-seat here is the fast nature of the flow. That impulse coming down is ginormous ... for shear power alone it's probably top tier in anomaly. So strong that it appears to offset what would otherwise take anything that's embedded in that trough and zoom it half way to England before one finishes dinner. If the flow overall was just a little weaker, than this thing stalls nearly ideally; and then there's no justification for any consternation, whatsoever, by those poor, suffering denizens of the SNE forum. Reading so many of these posts ... ha, there's a clear albeit smoldering/underpinning sense of loss in constant play with this. You think if you didn't know of the last three weeks, this region might have gone through snow abandonment ... the likes of which would make a prom night dumpster baby feel cozy in mom's bosom. People joke about "addiciton" - one may laugh, but that proportion is quite correct. And like any addicts, there not much room for rational thought or higher reasoning when it comes to the mere prospect of interfering with the constant flow of drugs. I digress ... anyway, the fast flow means that we can transport such a powerful feature from that region over N/A all the way to SE of CC in 24 to 36 hours. A lot of moving parts there to correctly sample... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Except that the Rgem gets the CCB cranking from 91 east Except it doesn't! Looks like maybe 0.4" liquid out in NE CT total. That's about what the NAM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Definitely a stronger ULL vs the 06z run...a shade slower too. Should be a very similar run, maybe a little bit better further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS is actually NW of 6z at h5 but pretty similar result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Like PWM demolished Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Except it doesn't! Looks like maybe 0.4" liquid out in NE CT total. That's about what the NAM shows. .10 west!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 PWM demolished 12z GFS hammers this area as well, Like the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 All out blizzard on GFS. Verbatim 12+ for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS maybe a tick north, but overall excellent consistency 0z-6z-12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 All out blizzard on GFS. Verbatim 12+ for BOS. GFS looks good for EMA, nice ccb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 All out blizzard on GFS. Verbatim 12+ for BOS. Gets an inch of QPF about back to 495...for the queens. Even 0.75" is getting back to western ORH county and parts of NE CT. Pretty solid run. As the mid-level center around 700 tracks from SE of Montauk to roughly ACK...that is when the whole precip shield should just blossom almost overhead and get pretty intense for a time. It is a rapdily deepening ML center too so it should produce pretty awesome lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z GFS hammers this area as well, Like the RGEM Your area has been in the line of fire for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Great hit again 91 east. Not bad west of there either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Your area has been in the line of fire for days. It has but the main focus has been further down the coast to the east and now looks like it has shifted back to the west some so far over the last couple model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 PWM demolished The 12Z GFS just destroyed our area. Incredible storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Nice, western areas on the western side of the ccb. I think we might do ok if gfs Verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Are we still looking at very high ratios? Sorry but I cannot look back 10+pages on the previous thread to find this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Pretty sweet 700 back bent front look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Pretty sweet 700 back bent front look. Nice BOS sounding at 12z Sunday....-11C at 850mb and -16C at 700mb...with a rapidly deepening H7 low over MVY/ACK...I think you'd take your chance swith that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Pretty sweet 700 back bent front look. I'll take that mid level look all day. I might not get a foot like you but can't complain gfs verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Nice BOS sounding at 12z Sunday....-11C at 850mb and -16C at 700mb...with a rapidly deepening H7 low over MVY/ACK...I think you'd take your chance swith that Pretty sick man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This is going to rip over many areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Nice BOS sounding at 12z Sunday....-11C at 850mb and -16C at 700mb...with a rapidly deepening H7 low over MVY/ACK...I think you'd take your chance swith that No, Will. I doubt this will win the new logo contest for the Wu Tang clan. Perhaps we could come up with a better entry if they revealed the Wu Tang secret; but alas; they never shall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'll take that mid level look all day. I might not get a foot like you but can't complain gfs verbatim. CT could do well with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Gets an inch of QPF about back to 495...for the queens. Even 0.75" is getting back to western ORH county and parts of NE CT. Pretty solid run. As the mid-level center around 700 tracks from SE of Montauk to roughly ACK...that is when the whole precip shield should just blossom almost overhead and get pretty intense for a time. It is a rapdily deepening ML center too so it should produce pretty awesome lift. 12-20" in ne MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 OK OK OK.... Ponder This.... This is off the freaking Charts. In Of the 4 months that can have record snow every year, and the records going back 140 years or so. That's 560 Months. Of those 560 Months, THIS Month is going to Break the ALL-TIME Record in Less than HALF the Month AND this does NOT even Count the Blizzard of 2015 which happened BEFORE February Started!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 CT could do well with that. Yes GFS is a great example of what could go really well with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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