Super Snow Sunday

[SR Airglow]

We're 6.5 ahead of that.

 

Another thing that gives me pause is the fact that how often do you get 4 storms 12+ in a season?

To your second point, how often do you get 3 storms that are 16"+ in two weeks?

 

I think we're past that point with this winter.

[weathercoins]

We're 6.5 ahead of that.

 

Another thing that gives me pause is the fact that how often do you get 4 storms 12+ in a season?

Us being in 3rd place by the end of next week is a fairly good bet I would think, with the GFS hinting at a chance to make a run at #2 by then

[weathafella]

To your second point, how often do you get 3 storms that are 16"+ in two weeks?

 

I think we're past that point with this winter.

 

 

So true.  We're on hallowed ground.   Can we break the record?   Guidance says without too much trouble...lol.

[SouthieWX]

The MBTA has cancelled all services for Sunday. Seems to be boom or bust in BOS, according to who or what you believe. The wind and visibility issue remains valid, of course.

[HoarfrostHubb]

To your second point, how often do you get 3 storms that are 16"+ in two weeks?

 

I think we're past that point with this winter.

That has never happened before

[NorEastermass128]

So true. We're on hallowed ground. Can we break the record? Guidance says without too much trouble...lol.

But Bouchard said the pattern changes after the midweek storm?

Amazing that we're outpacing 95/96.

[SR Airglow]

So true.  We're on hallowed ground.   Can we break the record?   Guidance says without too much trouble...lol.

I just hope that if we miss it, it's by more than 5-6" or so, because if we finish with say 105, that means that if BOS had measured correctly in the blizzard, we would have beaten it. Would sting a little to have it end like that...

 

For the record, I think that not only do we beat the record, we smash it by >10". We're in incredible territory at this point, something that none of us will likely ever see again, and we've got to enjoy every minute of it.

[J Paul Gordon]

But what about ORH? What about MBY?

[SR Airglow]

That has never happened before

Exactly my point.

[Typhoon Tip]

Where was BOS at by this date in 95/96?

 

1995 - 1996 was different... We had a lot of wetter snow from mid November through the 2nd week of December, then it got very cold, leading up to the big early January storm.  But then one helluva thaw set in..  Two or perhaps three Lakes cutters brought DPs close to 60 on southerly gales.  30 to 40" snow packs were obliterated down to bare ground almost.  Then, winter came back later in February and again, it seemed to snow at least excuse imaginable through early April.  But only one storm in those two stretches (that I recall) were very large. It was mostly nickle and dimed to death...  Seemed to snow every 3.5 days, to 3-8"

 

This year... I think we have been cashing in quite a bit on higher ratio with available cold. This has helped exaggerate our snow depths and result.  I haven't seen this many back to back to back to back powder events toppling over a foot per, in my life. Not at this latitude. Folks should really appreciate that string for ratios alone.  12-20+" of powder, four times in a row come this time Monday, with no intervening melt off.  

 

And it may in fact all culminate next week with a 12" blue fall from a southern stream bringing hellagood PWAT up over only a weakly moderated cold air mass.   

[HoarfrostHubb]

Exactly my point.

Yup

I think there had only been one year where there were even 2, 1977-78

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Sat night could be fun for CT as the waa gets going, I could see radar really explode and surprise.

I'm liking the gfs obv but I rode the lonely horse during Juno and my arse cheeks still haven't recovered...so I'm a little hesitant to ride the loner again.

[TheSnowman]

We're 6.5 ahead of that.

 

Another thing that gives me pause is the fact that how often do you get 4 storms 12+ in a season?

1947-1948 had for in about 30 days for me But Boston missed out on all that AND that was my only year on record with 4 12"ers. So Yes - Hollowed Ground.

[ineedsnow]

if the gfs is right there are going to be alot of unhappy people so many people are sick of the snow! not any of us this forum would be in its glory!! Think it moves away from its solution at 0z though

[Ginx snewx]

1947-1948 had for in about 30 days for me But Boston missed out on all that AND that was my only year on record with 4 12"ers. So Yes - Hollowed Ground.

Sammy Lillo is keeping a running daily comparison

http://weather.ou.edu/~splillo/misc/BOSsnow.png

[78Blizzard]

NCEP

"12z gfs likely too close to the coast"

Translated. No forecastso off gfso or failo

Now that it doubled down at 18z, will they maintain that stance?

[ORH_wxman]

Now that it doubled down at 18z, will they maintain that stance?

They won't have to decide until after 00z anyway. By then I suspect we will have our answer.

[CoastalWx]

No idea what Pete B is talking about. None.

[BostonWX]

No idea what Pete B is talking about. None.

What are his thoughts?

[moneypitmike]

Thoughts from the folks out west. 

 

4.5/-11

 

 

 

 

 

[mostman]

What are his thoughts?

He's on record as saying the pattern is changing and this will be the last shot at a foot. Or something like that.

[CoastalWx]

What are his thoughts?

Just how there is a pattern change after this storm. Look at Wednesday and beyond. I see no change even if we got a taint storm.

[mostman]

These new maps where the TV guys just stick a + on the number seem to be really in vogue this year. Next year I expect the maps to be "a little" "a good amount" "more than usual" and "a ton".

[Roger Smith]

RGEM may have disappointed in details but look at its robust values on 500 mb heights and surface pressure. If you combine that trend with the GFS scenario you can retain confidence in a higher end solution.

 

I don't claim to know what's going to happen in reality, but the potential given the dynamics available and the positive SST anomaly values in the target area would suggest caution in downgrading expectations.

 

Even the very short-term forecasts may bust with this, once the actual system gets out over the open Atlantic, bombs away and if there's any hint of the GFS near-loop sort of lingering while deepening, you would have to figure on 3-5 inch per hour snowfall rates as well as the extreme wind gust scenario.

 

What brings me back to the GFS as best guidance is simply the feeling that thickness values will be quickly modified by the ocean temperatures and this will create a very strong coastal forcing mechanism that will not be transitory. Given that almost all guidance shows sub-500 dm heights over Cape Cod, a less complicated forecast philosophy would have to point towards blizzard evolution. But as I say, it could go either way. Few have been talking about the upside bust potential with this and that might be something to ponder. Not how bad can this get, but how great can it get? What if it drops even faster into the 960s and loops?

[78Blizzard]

Just how there is a pattern change after this storm. Look at Wednesday and beyond. I see no change even if we got a taint storm.

The next 16 days show maybe one or two days with high temps getting to the mid-upper thirties in Boston.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I hope Boston gets another foot Wed. Pete will look like a fool to the public who just heard him basically say, "no more snow after sunday."

[Damage In Tolland]

Well let's see if this phails or nuts the squirrel

[rnaude241]

Well let's see if this phails or nuts the squirrel

I'd take that in my for sure!

[BostonWX]

I'm pretty sure Pete's playing the climo game

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I'm pretty sure Pete's playing the climo game

 

Thats fine...eventually it will end. However, there is nothing in the near future that suggests the pattern is changing. Will it snow every 3/4 days? No. But that doesnt mean the pattern changed, just Boston's luck.