Arnold214 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The egg the RGEM just laid really broke my confidence. Still think there will be meso stuff not being modeled, but you can't base a call on amounts on that. I think the precipitation character could end up being more showery for you after awhile under that upper level low. Who knows you might pull off some thunder though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I am seriously considering a road trip to Portsmouth NH... Good spot? That's where I would go, Stay right downtown. Pretty easy to imagine 1717 in a town that still looks like it did in 1717 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 If there is ever a time for the GFS to be right...please let this be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS is South and West at 30! Spank that NAM! Spank that NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think the precipitation character could end up being more showery for you after awhile under that upper level low. Who knows you might pull off some thunder though.What you thinking in terms of winds over the General region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What's interesting to note is that the GFS at 18z for today is too far east and 12mb too weak with the storm just east of Nova Scotia. Wonder if the same thing will be true for our potential Blizzard, but this time too far east from Cape Cod. Wouldn't shock me ... I can think of a synoptic reason that combined with GFS oper. model bias could certainly lead to that outcome. The GFS has a progressivity bias. Hard to know when it will rear its head, or what set ups lend to it doing so more than others, but in this situation ... it seems with so much raw mechanical power settling into 40/80 (lat/lon) some kind of transient west Atlantic height bulge should super-impose of that region. That's not always true, ...of course, but something to look for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The exciting thing about this storm: pretty awesome ULL and midlevel potentials? Wind. Cold. Potentially great snowfall amounts (if we remember that in most years 6-12, or, 8-15 is pretty darn good). If the GFS has smelled it out right we are all in for a pretty decent event. Hardly time to start crying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 That's where I would go, Stay right downtown. Pretty easy to imagine 1717 in a town that still looks like it did in 1717 It's a toss up between there and Boston. Was leaning heavily towards Portsmouth but just saw the 18Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What you thinking in terms of winds over the General region?I think you'll pull off gusts of 40-45 kt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Whoa GFS - even more impressive than 12z.Something very strange is going on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS is totally on its own with this one. 1/2" of liquid back to CT/NY border and the Berkshires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Even better aloft than the 12z run. I'm throwing it out, but one can dream. Working on a regionwide map now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Whoa GFS - even more impressive than 12z. unbelievable.ever since the upgrade it seems as though the RGEM and the GFS have been pretty locked in step within 24 to 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What's the resolution on the new GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS is totally on its own with this one. 1/2" of liquid back to CT/NY border and the Berkshires. Nah, the NAVGEM bit hard earlier, too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS even has a 0.75" in 6 hour spot over EMA!!!! GO GFS!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What's the resolution on the new GFS?There's the 27km and then the hires 13km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Even better aloft than the 12z run. I'm throwing it out, but one can dream. Working on a regionwide map now. yeah, on its own, either the upgrade kicks ass or ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What's the resolution on the new GFS? I think 13km...it basically is doubling down and going for broke now on this 18z run after others trended opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You're making some purely idiotic comments. Jesus, if your that jealous, take a drive.....dunno what to tell you. Jesus, if you want more snow after the 70" you guys had in 2 weeks, and half of you have your hearts disappointed. No one said I was jealous, lol this is kind of payback for you guys. When we where having KU events back in 09-11". This is just a congrats. One of these years it will be the opposite. Expect that climo favors. Either way, I'm done posting in storm threads. I get attacked very easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think 13km...it basically is doubling down and going for broke now on this 18z run after others trended opposite. Hard to go with it after Euro and rgem went advisory on us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS increases QPF for EMA while others decrease it.. nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So pretty much GFS against the world at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Something very strange is going on here.somethings happening here. What it is aint exactly clear. There's a model with a ton over there. Telling me i got to beware. I think it's time we stop weenies, what's that sound, everybody look what's going down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS even has a 0.75" in 6 hour spot over EMA!!!! GO GFS!!!!!I'd buy it if the RGEM didn't back down.....man,ehat s headache Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Blizzard warnings have nothing to do with the amount of snow that falls. Yes they do as you need heavy enough snow to get 1/4 vix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Well I'm gonna hold off until 00z to get a true gauge. It's on an island right now, but even if the other models that backed off, edge back west a bit....it's a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 1" in a Circle from My house to SNH to Cape Cod and everywhere in between. Boston the center of that circle, and that's the Jackpot for the Whole storm, Not Maine. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This run might actually be better than 12z since it is a bit SW with the ML centers. Shafts Sw Maine and parts of nh which is the beginning of it caving IMO. Still pretty to look at but the cake hole is inevitable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Shafts Sw Maine and parts of nh which is the beginning of it caving IMO. Still pretty to look at but the cake hole is inevitable why is that the beginning of caving in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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