TheSnowman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Wow NWS keeping 6-10 / 8-10 amounts for Northeast RI. Not believing the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Just had updated me to 4 to 7 and.models have .25 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Wow NWS keeping 6-10 / 8-10 amounts for Northeast RI. Not believing the GFS? Consider it this way, you are to this storm what NYC was to the January blizzard. Only instead of the Euro being your stalwart champion, you have the Global Forecast System. Let us think on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 No, most is expected Monday AM. Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z RGEM is pretty far east...only really grazes E MA with the CCB. That's probably not a meaningless shift either given the RGEM is getting more into its better range. That gives less credence to the bigger solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Makes no sense that Boston is higher than this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z RGEM is pretty far east...only really grazes E MA with the CCB. That's probably not a meaningless shift either given the RGEM is getting more into its better range. That gives less credence to the bigger solutions. Game. Set. Match. 6-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think this could be the first event you over analyze the situation. I have barely looked at it, not buying the extreme predictions or solutions and never have. It's a windy 4-8ish, but otherwise meh. Everyone is looking for reasons to make lemonade when we got a meteorological pile of lemons despite a death ULL. Models are dry because winds are honking NW 600 miles off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The 18z 4km NAM actually looks like the BOX map S of the NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Game. Set. Match. 6-10" Yep...going 4-6 here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Charlie baker just on.... Right as the RGEM goes east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z RGEM is pretty far east...only really grazes E MA with the CCB. That's probably not a meaningless shift either given the RGEM is getting more into its better range. That gives less credence to the bigger solutions. I think this becomes a ME event. Not complaining, but we just don't have a lot of room for error in SNE with this setup. I bet we average around a half foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The 18z 4km NAM actually looks like the BOX map S of the NH border. ptot54.gif Drier than BOX to the west of 128 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I posted on this exact thought 18 minutes ago. No need to throw more cold water on this thread. Already enough people jumping ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 8-10 my call enjoy Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Game. Set. Match. 6-10"5-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 well what's the damage with the RGEM?. how bad does it look back in the 91 corridor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z RGEM is pretty far east...only really grazes E MA with the CCB. That's probably not a meaningless shift either given the RGEM is getting more into its better range. That gives less credence to the bigger solutions. welp. Thats not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Drier than BOX to the west of 128 You really think so? I'm going with a 15:1 ratio in this system. 0.50 = 7.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The 18z 4km NAM actually looks like the BOX map S of the NH border. ptot54.gif Map perfectly illustrates the point....if the bzone wasn't pushed to Bermuda there would be tons more moisture to the NW of where the convection finally does fire. You can see how the lack of thag moisture never gets to curve up over us so we rely on a "ccb" which still doesn't amp up in time. Dead cat bounce on this one, it's falling away in a fashion similar to last nights threat as it gets close. Still a nice storm but blizzard? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Game. Set. Match. 6-10" Box has up to 11 for my area. I'm thinking 6 max. My county is in the Pink, but only 3 CT counties are there right now. Not sure if that will revise to more or less or none in the pink zone later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 well what's the damage with the RGEM?. how bad does it look back in the 91 corridor? BDL is 0.15-0.2" QPF. 3" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yeah that was unexpected..Well we're going to have to rely on mesoscale banding now for amounts greater than 6 inches anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 well what's the damage with the RGEM?. how bad does it look back in the 91 corridor? coating to an inch in the CEF/BDL snowhole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Map perfectly illustrates the point....if the bzone wasn't pushed to Bermuda there would be tons more moisture to the NW of where the convection finally does fire. You can see how the lack of thag moisture never gets to curve up over us so we rely on a "ccb" which still doesn't amp up in time. Dead cat bounce on this one, it's falling away in a fashion similar to last nights threat as it gets close. Still a nice storm but blizzard? Lol You'll verify a Blizzard there. I'm certainly not banking on any CCB love here. Maybe some wrap-around but my focus is on the WAA portion down this way. May see upwards of 6" in some areas just from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 coating to an inch in the CEF/BDL snowhole? I find it hard to believe that from here up to ORH to 128 it's only a 2-4 inch storm..but maybe we've all gotten excited for nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yeah that was unexpected..Well we're going to have to rely on mesoscale banding now for amounts greater than 6 inches anywhere maybe west of 495, this area still looks good.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Man that RGEM run is ugly. That's about 4"-5" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yeah that was unexpected..Well we're going to have to rely on mesoscale banding now for amounts greater than 6 inches anywhere I don't think it was unexpected if you paid attention to some of the caution flags that models and knowledgeable posters were throwing out instead of blindly hugging the snowiest solution and tossing all models but the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I don't think it was unexpected if you paid attention to some of the caution flags that models and knowledgeable posters were throwing out instead of blindly hugging the snowiest solution and tossing all models but the GFS. Noone was expecting advisory amounts nearly into Boston..You are as surprised as everyone else is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.