Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 RGEM should finally give us a better idea which way to start leaning ..Considering how ramped up it was at 12z..I'd expect even more so at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Blizzard warning for a lot of eastern ma. Wow..... WSW for RI and eastern Conn, with watches a bit west of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Expanded WSW, Blizzard warnings seem a little bullish to me. But I think it's better to err on the side of caution and forecast on the high side in the interest of preparation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm actually wondering if the WAA portion may over-perform late tomorrow afternoon and evening...we have really steep lapse rates during that phase. Almost a semi-windex type look. strong inflow off the pond too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Based on the 18z NAM QPF, by 12z tomorrow it should be down to a 1-3" deal with low end advisory, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Lull is related to how it develops and I believe is perfectly valid to some degree It's the NAM. It was showing 3 feet for Jersey not even 3 weeks ago and we all know how that turned out. I think Tip's point is very valid. There is valid reasoning for the eastern low and valid reasoning for the western low. Which one wins out is not as cut and dry as the January Blizzard in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm actually wondering if the WAA portion may over-perform late tomorrow afternoon and evening...we have really steep lapse rates during that phase. Almost a semi-windex type look. That part intrigues me... one of the more enjoyable possibilities the GFS presents is little lull between the WAA snows and the CCB kicked in from the bombing low. The NAM on the other hand really calms things down... the Euro kind of looks like that too. I imagine some area -- maybe SE NH? -- manages to make the leap without the lull and sees higher totals as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Based on the 18z NAM QPF, by 12z tomorrow it should be down to a 1-3" deal with low end advisory, lol.is this nam run really that bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The ratios tomorrow should be high with little wind. It could really stack up quickly tomorrow afternoon and evening before any lightening up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm actually wondering if the WAA portion may over-perform late tomorrow afternoon and evening...we have really steep lapse rates during that phase. Almost a semi-windex type look. Yeah I think that could be really good. Obviously good snow growth too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 is this nam run really that bad? I'm talking about how the QPF has been trending down each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What is the NAM actually good for? Is it more reliable for other types of weather or other parts of the country geographically? It seems like its useless even in the very short term during Winter around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's the NAM. It was showing 3 feet for Jersey not even 3 weeks ago and we all know how that turned out. I think Tip's point is very valid. There is valid reasoning for the eastern low and valid reasoning for the western low. Which one wins out is not as cut and dry as the January Blizzard in my opinion. I think there will be a pretty big cake hole with this one as it tries to overcome the dry air at first aloft. I think 4-8 will do it even on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 15z NMM is a good example of how some strange intense banding could happen with a rapidly deepening ML center just to our south...see that area over RI which is a bit seperate from the main CCB in E MA later on http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAEAST_18z/etaloop.html Jesus, that is painful to watch for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What is the NAM actually good for? Is it more reliable for other types of weather or other parts of the country geographically? It seems like its useless even in the very short term during Winter around here. It's geared to convection nowadays. It hurts it in these storms frequently because it will go nuts with an area of convection out over the open ocean and start feeding back on itself there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 is it too late for the Euro ens to be helpful? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 New BOX map is very pixely... looking like 10-14 BOS-east, 8-10 out to ORH along a slant close to 146, and 6-8 outside of there, with 4-6 hugging 91. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's geared to convection nowadays. It hurts it in these storms frequently because it will go nuts with an area of convection out over the open ocean and start feeding back on itself there. Remember the Monday storm this week when it rained up to PF and then shifted about 500 miles south in 36 hours..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm actually wondering if the WAA portion may over-perform late tomorrow afternoon and evening...we have really steep lapse rates during that phase. Almost a semi-windex type look. My eye is on that down here. Models have looked rather robust putting out 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 BOX 3:30 Update: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Jesus, that is painful to watch for me. I foresee a lot of storm sucks posts from you come tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think there will be a pretty big cake hole with this one as it tries to overcome the dry air at first aloft. I think 4-8 will do it even on the coast I think this could be the first event you over analyze the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 My eye is on that down here. Models have looked rather robust putting out 3-5". Yeah I've been noticing it more and more on the soundings how it becomes almost unstable for a brief time. We get TTs in the upper 40s. It wouldn't shock me to see some periods of legit heavy snow in that part of the event...even if only for a fairly short time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 New box map is out..... 10-14 all of Plymouth county.... 8-10 bristol county..... Box not backing down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Remember the Monday storm this week when it rained up to PF and then shifted about 500 miles south in 36 hours..lol Haha that was an incredibly bad forecast it had. It was jackpotting Montreal with the snow Boston got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This event is going to have more surprises for more people than the "blizzard" did for the 9 million New Yorkers three weeks ago. That's my final prediction. Over n Out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 I foresee a lot of storm sucks posts from you come tomorrow night. No, most is expected Monday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 That is an ugly (and weird looking) dryslot on the NAM over SNE around 09z Sunday...it fills back in, but that is bizarre...esp given that it is north of the ML centers. The NAM's had an ugly dry slot for several runs through western areas, I think. This time is just widened quite a bit. Box has had a hot hand,what they forecast is what I expect Aside from the blizzard out here (a big oops), I agree. I wonder how much of the limited qpf in SNE may be lost to evaporation as this moves in. 9.1/-11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 NAM is probably hinting Virga. There will be a lot of dry air in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yeah I've been noticing it more and more on the soundings how it becomes almost unstable for a brief time. We get TTs in the upper 40s. It wouldn't shock me to see some periods of legit heavy snow in that part of the event...even if only for a fairly short time. I'm thinking the system is basically split is 2. We get that initial WAA punch than we await the CCB. The wildcard being that CCB and where ir sets up. The GFS would be optimal for all. This is speaking in general terms for the SNE area, Up in ME they are golden as they are and have been ground zero for quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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