BRSno Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 NAM insists on a nice lull around Eastern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Blizzard warnings are up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What's interesting to note is that the GFS at 18z for today is too far east and 12mb too weak with the storm just east of Nova Scotia. Wonder if the same thing will be true for our potential Blizzard, but this time too far east from Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GYX supersizing for some LOL I love the little 8-10 cut right over my house....10-14 everywhere but there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Congrats Eastport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Blizzard warnings are up.First call of 6-9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Kev, I think the feature least talked about but with the best % chance of causing you to get buried, will most likely be the INV trough feature. I think there is a better shot given guidance that you over-perform from that, and not from the CCB or some TROWEL feature extending wayyyy back. But i'm just a weenie. INV troughs as you know are impossible to predict or forecast..so the people saying they know it's going to set up over LI or wherever are pulling stuff from azzes. I believe if Ct is going to do well it's from a couple massive mesobands or deformation bands as the low explodes as it comes off of south Jersey and they just sit overhead for hours. I'm not counting on the CCB making it back to CT unless the GFS is right which it's probably not. if we don't get any of the mesobanding..then it's a lot of 6-8 inch amounts east of 91 and 3-5 west of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Makes sense looking at the QPF and 15:1 ratios. GYX supersizing for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 That is an ugly (and weird looking) dryslot on the NAM over SNE around 09z Sunday...it fills back in, but that is bizarre...esp given that it is north of the ML centers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 wow they added me to the blizzard warning and up me to 10-14 nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 5" for my area, final call. Can always adjust up during nowcasting if need be. Things trending worse means you estimate below current expectations. Engineering school taught me to use a factor of safety, even in snow accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 That is an ugly (and weird looking) dryslot on the NAM over SNE around 09z Sunday...it fills back in, but that is bizarre...esp given that it is north of the ML centers. At least the 18z run trended stronger with the upper levels from 12z. Just has things pushed off further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 No there's actually not. Your posts always seem to somehow find a way for NE Mass to get the most snow. It never fails. Today's another example. What reason can you give for west of BOS too be negative? Well what reason can I give? People have been posting literally all day with reasons why so I'm not gonna waste time listing them. For the record I think you see 5-10"have you seen rgem, nam, gfs, euro? Ne ma is clearly the #1 spot but okay. If you ignore all guidance maybe west of bos would be more impressive. It really doesn't matter if bos or ne ma jackpots because I can be in either location so your point doesn't matter if you think I'm favoriting andover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 wow they added me to the blizzard warning and up me to 10-14 nice.I'm a little concerned about these depicted lulls. We may end up doing a 7-10 split. Going for a conservative 6-9" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 At least the 18z run trended stronger with the upper levels from 12z. Just has things pushed off further east. Yeah the ULL was stronger...we had better downstream ridging too...but the NAM focused on the eastern region of WAA at 850mb instead of further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Noone here is taking objective guidance with this one.You just can't. Well "you" can..but most of us are not I said last night I would wait until the 00z models and then would stop looking at globals. It's too weird. Bring on the event, and I'll track it from there. And we will see what sort of craziness happens, for which there will be no shortage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 NAM hinting at the low being shoved off the east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Thanks Jay. Sound reasonsi was driving... now I am driving around Southie taking pictures. Streets are absolutely absurd! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Interesting the NWS expanded the watches even farther west, even with the current trend in models. Hartford, Franklin, Hampshire, and Hampden counties now included for 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 And, WSWatch extended back here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Box has had a hot hand,what they forecast is what I expect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 5" for my area, final call. Can always adjust up during nowcasting if need be. Things trending worse means you estimate below current expectations. Engineering school taught me to use a factor of safety, even in snow accumulations. yeah, I'm going with 4 - 5" of dry baking powder out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Blizzard warnings and WSW's just issued. Congrats everyone. Let the fun begin Looks like we are still holding in a watch zone - not that it matters at the end of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Box has had a hot hand,what they forecast is what I expect I dunno mang. I've seen a lot of different ways for a lot of folks to NOT reach warning criteria today. I am not vibing on this jam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I dunno mang. I've seen a lot of different ways for a lot of folks to NOT reach warning criteria today. I am not vibing on this jam. maybe far western MA/CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 If you were to use the NAM QPF, it would be a marginal call to issue winter weather advisories. QPF is much lighter than previous runs and more importantly, H5 is also less wrapped up (though just a little bit) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm actually wondering if the WAA portion may over-perform late tomorrow afternoon and evening...we have really steep lapse rates during that phase. Almost a semi-windex type look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 At least the 18z run trended stronger with the upper levels from 12z. Just has things pushed off further east. Lull is related to how it develops and I believe is perfectly valid to some degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Box has had a hot hand,what they forecast is what I expect They've grossly over-forecasted for southern areas the entire winter for every event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Wow, 18Z NAM gets this down to 960mb in the Gulf of Maine. Regardless of how much snow falls this thing has got to produce some really strong winds. With so much snow on the ground it will be very hard to measure so. Differences between 5" and 9" will be hard to even note by Joe public. It will look and feel (with the super cold temperatures) like a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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