KeithB Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Thats what I was thinking. 4-6 for my area (Rockland)? No way, based on all the model runs that is way too high. I'd love to say otherwise but I'm being realistic here I agree. I'll be dancing in the streets if we get 4-6 inches here in rockland county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The RGEM seems to have the heaviest precip south and east of the city, kinda strange and Boston gets only a small amount. Interesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 NAM Simrad, 18z. 7am Tomorrow - 7pm Sunday. Hits NYC and central NJ with the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The RGEM seems to have the heaviest precip south and east of the city, kinda strange and Boston gets only a small amount. Interesting?NAM like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The RGEM is very east with the initial WAA but is not bad at all after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Updated map for Mt. Holly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 RGEM is like 3-6". Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The GFS is shifting south yet again with the track of the 500mb low. Ultimately this was a total failure for the GFS which everyone was praising yesterday, at least in terms of the track at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The GFS is shifting south yet again with the track of the 500mb low. Ultimately this was a total failure for the GFS which everyone was praising yesterday, at least in terms of the track at H5.Juno was supposed to be further southwest than it ended up based on modeling, so it was reasonable to be suspicious of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Long Island and New England hammered. No inverted trough. Completely lost. Just the main low pressure system that develops too late for NJ. Nothing more than a strong clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 RGEM is like 3-6". Not bad. 60 mph gusts between 12-18z Sunday crossing LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS is beautiful for almost all of LI.. 6+ http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015021318&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=045 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 New GFS although so far no more precip, has a better overall look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 NYC might actually do better than Boston here if the initial WAA misses them to the east and if the inverted trough misses them to the west and pivots south with the 500mb flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 0.25"+ from Queens East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 0.25"+ from Queens East.How much nw of NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 How much nw of NYC? 0.1" - 0.25"...prob around 0.2" for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 How much for the city proper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Nam would be rockin' out here early sun morning.....TT - 60? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Strongest winds shifted 20 miles southeast. I have a big feeling that this storm is going to be awful for anyone West of NYC in NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The GFS is about 2-3 for me (Brooklyn) and progressively better as you head east. The difference between the NAM and GFS for central CT through eastern MA is downright comical (like with our failed blizzard) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Updated map for Mt. Holly If you're going to post these maps as updated or not updated, you really need to save and upload them. If you link them, they look exactly the same when someone browses an hour later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Thanks,though I don't see ones I saw back when I was in high school,. They need to make that a little better to understand winter season, and then tropical season etc..but thanks! And how can you be unsure of meeting blizzard conditions?! With 6-8+/- inches, winds possibly guessing to 70 sustained for at least 2 days 25-35 mph... That's criteria met in my opinion.. Blizzard Warning: Issued for sustained or gusty winds of 35 mph or more, and falling or blowing snow creating visibilities at or below ¼ mile; these conditions should persist for at least three hours. This is a good page to peruse. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/winterweather.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Strongest winds shifted 20 miles southeast. I have a big feeling that this storm is going to be awful for anyone West of NYC in NNJ. depends on expectations.. if you're expecting 1-4" west of the city - there should be no disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Strongest winds shifted 20 miles southeast. I have a big feeling that this storm is going to be awful for anyone West of NYC in NNJ. For EWR to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Upped QPF to .80 in Eastern Sufflok at it hits the Norlun harder this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 New GFS although so far no more precip, has a better overall look. 00z will change again as GFS continues to adjust. Hoping it's more RGEM like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hopefully this is just the 18z models acting up. It was a major shift towards one consolidated low pressure system which would normally be great region wide, but it develops too late for the Western half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 depends on expectations.. if you're expecting 1-4" west of the city - there should be no disappointment.Thats why I'm not disappointed, I saw how this was trending all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Strongest winds shifted 20 miles southeast. I have a big feeling that this storm is going to be awful for anyone West of NYC in NNJ. I dont know why you imply that this an bad run...it is no different than 12z. In fact, both the .25 line and the .50 line have shifted slightly westward vs. 12z. The GFS is never going to do a good job in picking up a small scale inverted trough feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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