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Valentine's Day weekend storm discussion part 2


Sickman

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SREFS plumes are basically 3-8" for most of the area.....of course those higher amounts east (sorry if I left out some areas that fall outside of those amounts).....and I've got to mention.....30-50" on the plumes for parts of coastal Maine with the highest amounts northern coastal Maine inland a bit.....wow

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SREFS plumes are basically 3-8" for most of the area.....of course those higher amounts east (sorry if I left out some areas that fall outside of those amounts).....and I've got to mention.....30-50" on the plumes for parts of coastal Maine with the highest amounts northern coastal Maine inland a bit.....wow

Many 2's and 3's for EWR
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I have seen a blizzard in Wisconsin without any snow falling.  It was just very windy with whiteout condition from blowing snow, >On one level the whole area except where buildings block the blowing and drifting of snow you could issue one. The only problem with that is no one would understand it.

you'd almost have to call it a ground blizzard warning...most folks around here hear blizzard warning and think 1-2 feet of snow is coming

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Thanks,though I don't see ones I saw back when I was in high school,. They need to make that a little better to understand winter season, and then tropical season etc..but thanks!

And how can you be unsure of meeting blizzard conditions?! With 6-8+/- inches, winds possibly guessing to 70 sustained for at least 2 days 25-35 mph... That's criteria met in my opinion..

Blizzard Warning: Issued for sustained or gusty winds of 35 mph or more, and falling or blowing snow creating visibilities at or below ¼ mile; these conditions should persist for at least three hours.

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Thanks,though I don't see ones I saw back when I was in high school,. They need to make that a little better to understand winter season, and then tropical season etc..but thanks!

And how can you be unsure of meeting blizzard conditions?! With 6-8+/- inches, winds possibly guessing to 70 sustained for at least 2 days 25-35 mph... That's criteria met in my opinion..

Blizzard Warning: Issued for sustained or gusty winds of 35 mph or more, and falling or blowing snow creating visibilities at or below ¼ mile; these conditions should persist for at least three hours.

Eastern Suffolk MIGHT hit near those conditions, but the rest of the county, Nassau, and NYC will not hit that forecast. 

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Yep best lift down in snj. Honestly I think it's all noise at this point. 2-4 event...winds will be the bigger story

 

agreed, not sure what the obsession is between 2-4/3-6... it wont matter, its going to incredibly windy with a few inches of snow in the NYC metro - the details will be ironed out tomorrow, regarding any potential norlun trough.. 

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I didn't see this posted anywhere

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1211 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015

...FRIGID WINDCHILLS THIS MORNING...

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...

CTZ007-008-011-012-NYZ079-081-140115-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.A.0005.150214T1800Z-150215T1800Z/
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
1211 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...STRONG WINDS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WITH
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

* WINDS...WEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING
HEAVY AT TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
BEFORE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW...WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...IS POSSIBLE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WITH
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN POWER
LINES AND TREE LIMBS.

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Still think 2-4 is best call - no need to go nuts with every model... look at SR tomorrow.. more on CLI and ELI... 

 

wind and cold will be the real story, the rest is semantics at this point

 

 

Look for a BLIZZARD WARNING tomorrow night for the eastern half of Suffolk County

 

I've been saying 2-4" (and 3-6" for eastern LI/CT) to all my weather peeps who actually think I know something, lol.  

 

Also, while we may only get 2-4" of snow in most of the area, we very well could have "blizzard" conditions of sustained winds/frequent gusts over 35 mph and visibility of <1/4 mile for short periods (10-40 minutes, during bursts of snow).  Unlikely to meet the more formal definition of having those conditions for 3+ hours, but that doesn't matter to the person who is suddenly unable to see much more than 100 yards in front of him on a major highway going 40-50 mph.  

 

And even when the snowfall intensity isn't great, the winds will likely be enough to cause localized ground blizzard conditions, at least in relatively open areas. I would be surprised if WW Advisories, at least, don't go up everywhere, even for places not expected to make the 3" criterion for most of the region.  

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