WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 SREFS plumes are basically 3-8" for most of the area.....of course those higher amounts east (sorry if I left out some areas that fall outside of those amounts).....and I've got to mention.....30-50" on the plumes for parts of coastal Maine with the highest amounts northern coastal Maine inland a bit.....wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 i thought they were .25"+ last run as well... what is the difference?? The 0.25"+ contour shifted another 30-40 miles southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I have seen a blizzard in Wisconsin without any snow falling. It was just very windy with whiteout condition from blowing snow, >On one level the whole area except where buildings block the blowing and drifting of snow you could issue one. The only problem with that is no one would understand it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 SREFS plumes are basically 3-8" for most of the area.....of course those higher amounts east (sorry if I left out some areas that fall outside of those amounts).....and I've got to mention.....30-50" on the plumes for parts of coastal Maine with the highest amounts northern coastal Maine inland a bit.....wowMany 2's and 3's for EWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 New NAM = Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I have seen a blizzard in Wisconsin without any snow falling. It was just very windy with whiteout condition from blowing snow, >On one level the whole area except where buildings block the blowing and drifting of snow you could issue one. The only problem with that is no one would understand it. you'd almost have to call it a ground blizzard warning...most folks around here hear blizzard warning and think 1-2 feet of snow is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Thanks,though I don't see ones I saw back when I was in high school,. They need to make that a little better to understand winter season, and then tropical season etc..but thanks! And how can you be unsure of meeting blizzard conditions?! With 6-8+/- inches, winds possibly guessing to 70 sustained for at least 2 days 25-35 mph... That's criteria met in my opinion.. Blizzard Warning: Issued for sustained or gusty winds of 35 mph or more, and falling or blowing snow creating visibilities at or below ¼ mile; these conditions should persist for at least three hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 New NAM = Not good. Yep best lift down in snj. Honestly I think it's all noise at this point. 2-4 event...winds will be the bigger story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth.P Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Thanks,though I don't see ones I saw back when I was in high school,. They need to make that a little better to understand winter season, and then tropical season etc..but thanks! And how can you be unsure of meeting blizzard conditions?! With 6-8+/- inches, winds possibly guessing to 70 sustained for at least 2 days 25-35 mph... That's criteria met in my opinion.. Blizzard Warning: Issued for sustained or gusty winds of 35 mph or more, and falling or blowing snow creating visibilities at or below ¼ mile; these conditions should persist for at least three hours. Eastern Suffolk MIGHT hit near those conditions, but the rest of the county, Nassau, and NYC will not hit that forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 If they think 1-2 feet of snow, is not anyone problem or fault expect for the idiots who don't listen to media outlets every single year or see nws informational postings etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Once again with long island being completely different from NYC jersey,can we please be as location specific? Really does help everyone follow if they are new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yep best lift down in snj. Honestly I think it's all noise at this point. 2-4 event...winds will be the bigger story agreed, not sure what the obsession is between 2-4/3-6... it wont matter, its going to incredibly windy with a few inches of snow in the NYC metro - the details will be ironed out tomorrow, regarding any potential norlun trough.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I didn't see this posted anywhere URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY1211 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015...FRIGID WINDCHILLS THIS MORNING......STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTOSUNDAY MORNING...CTZ007-008-011-012-NYZ079-081-140115-/O.CON.KOKX.WS.A.0005.150214T1800Z-150215T1800Z/NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-1211 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOONTHROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.* HAZARD TYPES...STRONG WINDS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WITHNEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.* WINDS...WEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMINGHEAVY AT TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING ANDDRIFTING SNOW...WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...IS POSSIBLELATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE.* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WITHNEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN POWERLINES AND TREE LIMBS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 New NAM = Not good. It even is not GOOD for NE... whacked out model! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Nam is .25+ for Boston...that would be a huge co-op by the nam if correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Nam is .25+ for Boston...that would be a huge co-op by the nam if correct. YEA HUGE DRYSLOT for them!! This model needs to trashed honestly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 New NAM = Not good.If the rgem does the same thing then worry. We can pretty much guarantee the GFS is going to show another non event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I didn't see this posted anywhereYeah I'm surprised more people aren't focusing on the wind potential tomorrow night into Sunday afternoon. Power outages should be a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 If the rgem does the same thing then worry. We can pretty much guarantee the GFS is going to show another non event The SREF's are basically the complete opposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 NAM jumps around too much for my liking inside of 48 hours. Last few storms it's done a lot of swinging back and forth on the QPF locations/ranges and the north/south trajectory of the pressure centers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Tell you the truth, lately I don't trust any of these models. Its almost time to nowcast. Will be looking at water vapor loops, current upper level maps and radars in earnest starting tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Winter storm warning. Upton isn't pulling trigger lol quite alright with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yeah I'm surprised more people aren't focusing on the wind potential tomorrow night into Sunday afternoon. Power outages should be a concern. MOS forecast winds are the highest on Long Island since 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Upton increase snowfall a bit, especially in NE NJ (from 2-3" to 3-4")... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth.P Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Winter storm warning. Upton isn't pulling trigger lol quite alright with me I see no reason for this to be a WSW in NYC. A WWA, and the HWW is sufficent and the most accurate forecast thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Upton increase snowfall a bit, especially in NE NJ (from 2-3" to 3-4")... No less important increased NY from 3-4 to 4-6!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 All of the modeling has a burst from the initial arctic front before any inverted trough features take over. Bernie Rayno likes 1-3" from that alone. The question will be how far West the inverted trough can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Upton increase snowfall a bit, especially in NE NJ (from 2-3" to 3-4")... NE NJ is mostly in the 4-6" range with 3-4" closer to EWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Still think 2-4 is best call - no need to go nuts with every model... look at SR tomorrow.. more on CLI and ELI... wind and cold will be the real story, the rest is semantics at this point Look for a BLIZZARD WARNING tomorrow night for the eastern half of Suffolk County I've been saying 2-4" (and 3-6" for eastern LI/CT) to all my weather peeps who actually think I know something, lol. Also, while we may only get 2-4" of snow in most of the area, we very well could have "blizzard" conditions of sustained winds/frequent gusts over 35 mph and visibility of <1/4 mile for short periods (10-40 minutes, during bursts of snow). Unlikely to meet the more formal definition of having those conditions for 3+ hours, but that doesn't matter to the person who is suddenly unable to see much more than 100 yards in front of him on a major highway going 40-50 mph. And even when the snowfall intensity isn't great, the winds will likely be enough to cause localized ground blizzard conditions, at least in relatively open areas. I would be surprised if WW Advisories, at least, don't go up everywhere, even for places not expected to make the 3" criterion for most of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 MOS forecast winds are the highest on Long Island since 2012.Does that include Sandy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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