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Valentine's Day weekend storm discussion part 2


Sickman

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It may come down to nowcast time with the Norlun placement which the models usually struggle with more than 24-36 hrs out. There have been numerous Norluns that models have missed even under 24 hrs.

remember Feb 2009? 8-12" in a narrow band near Philly
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remember Feb 2009? 8-12" in a narrow band near Philly

 

Yeah, I was just going to mention that one.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/2009/02_04/index.php

 

A band of very heavy snow set up right over Lancaster and Lititz, PA during the evening of Tuesday, Feb 3rd, 2009, and lasted into the early morning hours of Wednesday, the 4th. Snowfall rates were estimated to be up to 3 inches per hour at times. 

Hardly any snow fell to the Southwest and Northeast of the band of snow. The band was generally stationary for 5-6 hours in 10-15 mile-wide a line from Lititz to Lancaster and Strasburg. Locations in Northeast Lancaster County (Reamstown for example) hardly had a dusting. To the southwest, Millersville University had just a half of an inch.

Hints at the potential convective nature of the snow were given by the NWS CTP local WRF model run during the daytime on the 3rd. The location of the (potential) heavy snow was near to Lancaster County, but not perfectly located. It was within a few grid points for a 12km model, though. 

Larger/Broader-scale models will not catch such a small-scale event, and underestimated the potential for snowfall in that tiny area. 

A look at the LWX (Sterling, VA) balloon/upper-air sounding from 00Z on the 4th (7 PM EST on the 3rd) portrays a very steep lapse rate in the lowest 15kft of the atmosphere. The atmosphere appeared to be unstable all the way up to the tropospheric inversion at about 25kft. The unstable atmosphere most likely led to convective enhancement inside the snow band which began to show up early in the day over Northern and Central PA. An upper-level low pressure area moving eastward from the Great Lakes provided additional lift. The focusing mechanism for the band - that is why it developed and stayed where it was - is much more difficult to explain. 

For many in Lancaster and Lititz, this will probably be the heaviest snow they receive this winter.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2009/us0203.php

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2009/us0204.php

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There was also one up in Connecticut in the last few winters (can't remember which year), which gave a pretty significant swath around 10-14 inches.

Saw that one in ct , I think we got around a foot here in Trumbull but I think it was new town or south bury that got more than 20 inches...I remember extremely heavy snow rates for a few hours straight that afternoon.
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The wind is going to be the biggest problem with this storm. If forecasters stress that and give 3-6" for the area, I'm certain most people will heed the warnings better than overforecasting the snow totals.

That said, it'll be difficult to stress extreme winds and possible blizzard conditions with run of the mill snow totals.

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The wind is going to be the biggest problem with this storm. If forecasters stress that and give 3-6" for the area, I'm certain most people will heed the warnings better than overforecasting the snow totals.

That said, it'll be difficult to stress extreme winds and possible blizzard conditions with run of the mill snow totals.

I don't think this is an area wide 3-6 inch snowfall at all. Areas nw of nyc may only see 1-2 inches. Long Island is a different story
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The wind is going to be the biggest problem with this storm. If forecasters stress that and give 3-6" for the area, I'm certain most people will heed the warnings better than overforecasting the snow totals.

That said, it'll be difficult to stress extreme winds and possible blizzard conditions with run of the mill snow totals.

 

 

Very much agreed... a lot of people do not realize the severity of 55-65 MPH wind gusts... well up there in the range of TS force winds and the eastern end into southern NE could come close to hurricane force gusts... that and will cause problems for the coast with erosion and flooding... I think that part of the storm has not been discussed enough for the general public.

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I don't think this is an area wide 3-6 inch snowfall at all. Areas nw of nyc may only see 1-2 inches. Long Island is a different story

 

I disagree... while areas NW in rockland and orange may not.. the 5 boroughs into LHV/MHV over to SWCT and western LI should do OK with this storm... obviously eastern LI will be closer to the meat of the storm so it will be almost a guarantee for them to see over 6+ inches... like i said earlier in the thread this all comes down to where the INV trough sets up.  It can set up anywhere in the metro area.  It is a wait and see!

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I disagree... while areas NW in rockland and orange may not.. the 5 boroughs into LHV/MHV over to SWCT and western LI should do OK with this storm... obviously eastern LI will be closer to the meat of the storm so it will be almost a guarantee for them to see over 6+ inches... like i said earlier in the thread this all comes down to where the INV trough sets up.  It can set up anywhere in the metro area.  It is a wait and see!

The inverted trough is pretty much the dealbreaker. I know this is said often, but this will really be a "nowcast" storm.

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Could setup Upton for some criticism, as people are conditioned to expect heavy snow with a Blizzard warning despite the official criteria.   Might be justified though...

I bet they are reluctant to pull the trigger after the last el busto and this one is iffy as well outside of the winds which seem like a done deal

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I bet they are reluctant to pull the trigger after the last el busto and this one is iffy as well outside of the winds which seem like a done deal

If we are talking about the eastern half of LI, the last Blizzard warning verified with flying colors.  Why would they be gun shy if they thought B conditions will verify again?

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If we are talking about the eastern half of LI, the last Blizzard warning verified with flying colors.  Why would they be gun shy if they thought B conditions will verify again?

Out there yes, but for 90% of the others out, none verified-maybe New London Cty as well, but west of there and Suffolk no.

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If we are talking about the eastern half of LI, the last Blizzard warning verified with flying colors. Why would they be gun shy if they thought B conditions will verify again?

this is a blizzard for eastern Long Island without a doubt. Combine 4-12 inches of fluffy snow with exceptionally cold and very windy gusts up to 60mph yes that's a blizzard boys
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Ok it's been a while but I know there's probably about erm 10 different kinds of warnings nws could use with a winter storm if I am correct.. blizzard watch, warning. Winter storm watch, warning. Winter weather advisory. Want there a heavy snow warning and blowing snow warning as well? I feel like I'm missing some

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Ok it's been a while but I know there's probably about erm 10 different kinds of warnings nws could use with a winter storm if I am correct.. blizzard watch, warning. Winter storm watch, warning. Winter weather advisory. Want there a heavy snow warning and blowing snow warning as well? I feel like I'm missing some

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/warningcriteria.shtml

 

for BOX but I think its the same

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