WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 From Clint in the New England forum (maybe explains a bit the whole "surface should be responding" notion : "Will be a historic storm at mid-levels though! Development is being hindered IMO by the fact that the cold dry air has pushed towards Bermuda. That'll slightly hinder consolidated development at the surface with the best moisture so far east initially, and that in turn doesn't provide positive feedback for more rapid intensification and organization aloft. The results are these strung out type solutions which are perfectly valid. MEH" Overall though, I think this would be bad for the New England area though and not us really. We were never going to be part of that super band anyway (too young to be in Dream Theater during their prime). I still think we're good for 2-4" for most all of us with more parts of eastern LI/WCT/SNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 These were overall positive trends again for our area. Not wishcasting, just a fact. The ULL is in better placement on all the models. The GFS is north and now is against its ensembles and every other model in terms of ULL placement. Still some time for positive trends here. Hopefully the continued better evolution aloft translates to an increase in QPF. We'll see, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The Euro dug a lot further southwest with the H5 low. I thought it was going to be a much better solution. Yea. I don't get it. If you look at the upper level maps, it should show a borderline Mecs for us. A track that far south should do that with such a dynamic system we're dealing with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro is .6" for Bos, I don't know the specifics for NYC yet. 0.24" for NYC. No change from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The MDA Earthstat maps have the .25 line barely to NYC. Why the different outputs from different vendors? Not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Took a track similar to ggem just light on preciep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 0.24" for NYC. No change from 0z.Thanks Don, I don't know why some vendors have the same area over .4 it's real odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 1-4" is the best call right now areawide. Then the big story will be the damaging winds on Sunday and life threatening wind chills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The MDA Earthstat maps have the .25 line barely to NYC. Why the different outputs from different vendors? Possibly higher resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Possibly higher resolution. Ahh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 From Clint in the New England forum (maybe explains a bit the whole "surface should be responding" notion : "Will be a historic storm at mid-levels though! Development is being hindered IMO by the fact that the cold dry air has pushed towards Bermuda. That'll slightly hinder consolidated development at the surface with the best moisture so far east initially, and that in turn doesn't provide positive feedback for more rapid intensification and organization aloft. The results are these strung out type solutions which are perfectly valid. MEH" Overall though, I think this would be bad for the New England area though and not us really. We were never going to be part of that super band anyway (too young to be in Dream Theater during their prime). I still think we're good for 2-4" for most all of us with more parts of eastern LI/WCT/SNY 2-4 for us and boston gets the shaft? I could live with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 011.png What site do you use for these maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The .50'' line just about makes it to NYC. If by "just about" you mean 100 miles east, well yeah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 1-4" is the best call right now areawide. Then the big story will be the damaging winds on Sunday and life threatening wind chills. im sorry I usually agree with you but no one is getting less than 2.5-3 inches out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 2-4 for us and boston gets the shaft? I could live with that Haha well I believe Boston would still get 6-10" even if the less impressive models are closer to the truth.....not exactly shafted, but maybe a Bostonian bust (which means 1/2 of what some expect, rather than 1/4" of what some expect around our areas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Rgem is the best model at this range and I'll take it and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 im sorry I usually agree with you but no one is getting less than 2.5-3 inches out of this I doubt the Trenton to Sussex corridor sees more than an inch or two. Most of the modeling keeps precip confined to areas northeast of MMU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 People here are obsessed with Boston to a comical extent. Yes, I am upset that we've narrowly missed on a few storms and they've hit the lottery. But why would people here be ok with a 2-4 inch storm so long as Boston gets shafted? If NYC and Boston get no snow the rest of winter, ours sucks and theirs was still record breaking. At this point, I don't want nuisance snow; I want a legitimate big snowstorm (the bigger the better). This storm may not deliver the goods, but I'll still hold out hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I doubt the Trenton to Sussex corridor sees more than an inch or two. Most of the modeling keeps precip confined to areas northeast of MMU. Have you seen RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Have you seen RGEM?im telling u guys rgem is the best model at this range and your not listening. It's literally got the low at a perfect spot. I wouldn't be surprised if someone in eastern Long Island gets a foot with blizzard warningsEdit: it's not alone either. The driest model is all alone and as much as I got to like the GFS this winter I'll take the rgem over it in the 48hrs or less before impact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The main reason why we haven't done well is because this has been a northern stream dominated Winter. We need Southern stream involvement to inject moisture from the Gulf. Otherwise we're relying on whatever comes in off the Ocean and typically by then the systems are too far gone. NYC and LI have done quite well because they are further East. And the far interior has done well because of the initial overrunning that has been coming in with these systems before they redevelop. This results in a bit of a moisture hole that is focused over NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 im telling u guys rgem is the best model at this range and your not listening. It's literally got the low at a perfect spot. I wouldn't be surprised if someone in eastern Long Island gets a foot with blizzard warnings Edit: it's not alone either. The driest model is all alone and as much as I got to like the GFS this winter I'll take the rgem over it in the 48hrs or less before impact I disagree to a extent, the rgem has been playing catch up all year, it usually gets the solution correct but not until we're within 24hrs or earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I disagree to a extent, the rgem has been playing catch up all year, it usually gets the solution correct but not until we're within 24hrs or earlierwell if ur saying its a catch up model, than fine I can understand that but It has a good track and plenty of qpf for us which totally makes sense with the track and strength. It's only gotten wetter the last few runs I expect New York city to get .4" around 3-6 in the five boroughs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Your getting mixed up with the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Your getting mixed up with the GGEM. Correct rgem only goes to 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I doubt the Trenton to Sussex corridor sees more than an inch or two. Most of the modeling keeps precip confined to areas northeast of MMU.I agree, I think Rockland county and Orange County are 1-2 and 2 may be pushing it. They are in a bad spot for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I agree, I think Rockland county and Orange County are 1-2 and 2 may be pushing it. They are in a bad spot for this one East of the Hudson could do quite well... if the INV trough moves a bit SW then it could work out for you to receive a few more inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yea. I don't get it. If you look at the upper level maps, it should show a borderline Mecs for us. A track that far south should do that with such a dynamic system we're dealing with. It may come down to nowcast time with the Norlun placement which the models usually struggle with more than 24-36 hrs out. There have been numerous Norluns that models have missed even under 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It may come down to nowcast time with the Norlun placement which the models usually struggle with more than 24-36 hrs out.I think it's going to come down to the hrrr and rap tomorrow morning as to where that inverted trough sets up. If I'm a betting man it sets up over Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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