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Valentine's Day weekend storm discussion part 2


Sickman

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It's simple. The optimists are rooting for the GEM (which has far more support) and the negativos are rooting for the GFS. It's pretty simple. I'm admittedly a snow lover, so I hope the GEM wins. But I remain dumbfounded as to where people get this GFS is awesome feeling from. It was right (sort of) for the blizzard bust, but was otherwise terrible this season. It's selective memory.

It was right for nyc metro NOT points further east where totals were higher than gfs had indicated.

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You know you're spoiled when you've had over 70" in 3 weeks and are disappointed in getting only 6" out in SNE. I would kill for a 6" snowfall.

Still say go with 2-4" and start using short term models soon they'll provide greater insight than models like the Euro or Gfs especially if an inverted trough is involved.

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The Euro dug a lot further southwest with the H5 low. I thought it was going to be a much better solution.

 

It's almost think the surface is not responding well the upper levels... but the INV trough is VERY well depicted on all the models for our area except GFS.  If that overperforms we could do quite well..

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