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Valentine's Day weekend storm discussion part 2


Sickman

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Event is finally starting, buckle up,

:/ I'm all buckled in and it's not even snowing anywhere near here and the buckle's all tight and it hurts and I can't get out.....*wahhhhhhhhhh*

Sorry man :P you went all out with that so I couldn't help myself. Maybe next time though we'll get it....or next time....or next time....

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I know Norluns are tough to predict but trends were exceedingly positive past 36 hours till the very end whne the HRR , RAP and others came in further south and said no NY. so the question is why? this is in many ways as big a bust, metreoligically, as the Blizzard bustfor CPK. We need to understand.

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This is definitely one of the more torturing NJ/NYC winters in quite some time. I'm pissed and I'm not even home!!

The most frustrating part is that we keep getting lured back in over and over again. It's as if the storms are playing games with us, saying "betcha can't get it.......you can ? come on then.....betcha can't....." all the way to the coast and then offshore. Funny thing is that despite many of the models repeatedly saying "no, this isn't going to happen", the tendency is to always look at the ones and hold dear the ones that say there is the chance, and then go all out with that idea. It's not an opinion; that is a fact. What is clear is that the storms are obviously favoring mainly coastal locations this year. Also, as Pam said and has been proven this season, the RGEM inside of 24 hours is just awesome. Also, the reason why the HRRR and RAP have not shown impressive banding over the areas that the other models showed is not because they're out to lunch, it's because they've already eaten lunch and are showing more accurate information. Altogether, we probably should look more at the models, not less. They could definitely be much more reliable, however, certain ones at certain times are not too bad

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It's only pivoting on an axis it won't push any further north than it is now

Sent from my iPhone [/

you don't even know that. It's absolutely unpredictable what's going to happen. But the poster above mentioned the southeast precip movement stopped and it ticked northeast the last 10 minutes as its getting dragged up north by the actual axis of itself!
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you don't even know that. It's absolutely unpredictable what's going to happen. But the poster above mentioned the southeast precip movement stopped and it ticked northeast the last 10 minutes as its getting dragged up north by the actual axis of itself!

The short term models have been 100% spot on, no one wanted to believ then tho this afternoon when they showed exactly what's happening, that band will pivot as it pulls east

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The short term models have been 100% spot on, no one wanted to believ then tho this afternoon when they showed exactly what's happening, that band will pivot as it pulls east

Exactly. Exactly, although while pivoting I'm pretty sure it will throw a bit of moisture toward NENJ/NYC. HRRR showed that as well. Again.....it'll be up to an inch, if that. If the HRRR showed 10 inches to come but the radar looked bad for us, many would still be waiting for the radar to explode as modeled. However, even though the HRRR has consistently showed that we simply won't get hit with much of anything in these parts and the radar still looks bad for us, many are still waiting for something.....anything.....to happen lol. The easiest way to tell that the Blizzard was not going to pan out was when the HRRR simply wanted no part of it at all as everyone was calling it the worst model ever that couldn't sniff out the complex situation at hand
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Nyc may very well see a quick burst of snow, but not more than a quick inch or so

may be more than an inch as it stalled the trough and it's literally spinning it towards the city! Hopefully it does at least but it's hard to tell. I don't look at models we all knew that this would be more of a Monmouth county special earlier today when dc was getting heavy snow. All models had the inverted trough negatively tilted and that could churn it northeasterward towards the city, you being in Orange county may be too north for this but nyc is still possibly in the game.
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may be more than an inch as it stalled the trough and it's literally spinning it towards the city! Hopefully it does at least but it's hard to tell. I don't look at models we all knew that this would be more of a Monmouth county special earlier today when dc was getting heavy snow. All models had the inverted trough negatively tilted and that could churn it northeasterward towards the city, you being in Orange county may be too north for this but nyc is still possibly in the game.

I'm in wallkill so I'm way out of the game

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