NycStormChaser Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 For you miss William, dunno what crawled up your butt Who is miss William? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Who's ready for Spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Mr. Pamela Didn't get who you meant. Sorry. And I'm not going to start another war but you should really have respect for others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Norlun is setting up south of NYC in Jersey. Jackpot Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It is a risky forecast, although I do not see how we are going to reach blizzard criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think noT and it picked this battle seasick lol What battle? Do people call you by a different gender pronoun than you like to identify with? Then why do it to Pamela? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Hey let's start banning the phobes! Calling BxEngine!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Event is finally starting, buckle up, :/ I'm all buckled in and it's not even snowing anywhere near here and the buckle's all tight and it hurts and I can't get out.....*wahhhhhhhhhh* Sorry man you went all out with that so I couldn't help myself. Maybe next time though we'll get it....or next time....or next time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 In Monmouth and Ocean counties there are 2 to 3 inch per hour snowfall rates. Reports out of Toms River of 1.5 in 20 mins These IVT are impossible to forecast period . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Uggh, my prediction went up in flames too so I'm sharing in the misery to an extent. Lavalette might come in with a 6" spot and that's it. And obviously our snow deprived Beantowners... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think noT and it picked this battle seasick lol Time for a long time out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Do you think we could get a moderator in here and clean up Weatherman654's unsuccessful foray into trying to be clever? Like maybe his last 10 posts or so...Reported them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I know Norluns are tough to predict but trends were exceedingly positive past 36 hours till the very end whne the HRR , RAP and others came in further south and said no NY. so the question is why? this is in many ways as big a bust, metreoligically, as the Blizzard bustfor CPK. We need to understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Snowing lightly here now...1.5" for the day...temp at midnight 24(damn midnight hi) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Forky called it hours ago....Stated that the trough would set up a bit more south then what was being forecast at the time(nyc area) Good observation and good call by him U mean he saw all the short term models and said it was gonna bust like most of us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 And it's over for you...It was over for my area before it started. I'm done with this flurry-fest. Good night guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This is definitely one of the more torturing NJ/NYC winters in quite some time. I'm pissed and I'm not even home!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Slight push north and east with the band on latest radar. Who knows if it's anything... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Slight push north and east with the band on latest radar. Who knows if it's anything...b] It's only pivoting on an axis it won't push any further north than it is now Sent from my iPhone [/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Slight push north and east with the band on latest radar. Who knows if it's anything... Sent from my iPhone Models, even all short range ones have it pretty much sitting where it is and then heading south/pivoting out. This one is over for NYC/Long Island. Nice for Monmouth/Ocean County though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This is definitely one of the more torturing NJ/NYC winters in quite some time. I'm pissed and I'm not even home!! The most frustrating part is that we keep getting lured back in over and over again. It's as if the storms are playing games with us, saying "betcha can't get it.......you can ? come on then.....betcha can't....." all the way to the coast and then offshore. Funny thing is that despite many of the models repeatedly saying "no, this isn't going to happen", the tendency is to always look at the ones and hold dear the ones that say there is the chance, and then go all out with that idea. It's not an opinion; that is a fact. What is clear is that the storms are obviously favoring mainly coastal locations this year. Also, as Pam said and has been proven this season, the RGEM inside of 24 hours is just awesome. Also, the reason why the HRRR and RAP have not shown impressive banding over the areas that the other models showed is not because they're out to lunch, it's because they've already eaten lunch and are showing more accurate information. Altogether, we probably should look more at the models, not less. They could definitely be much more reliable, however, certain ones at certain times are not too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It's only pivoting on an axis it won't push any further north than it is now Sent from my iPhone [/ you don't even know that. It's absolutely unpredictable what's going to happen. But the poster above mentioned the southeast precip movement stopped and it ticked northeast the last 10 minutes as its getting dragged up north by the actual axis of itself! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 In fact I think this will pivot back to nyc now that's how unpredictable this system is! It just keeps getting me back in it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 you don't even know that. It's absolutely unpredictable what's going to happen. But the poster above mentioned the southeast precip movement stopped and it ticked northeast the last 10 minutes as its getting dragged up north by the actual axis of itself! The short term models have been 100% spot on, no one wanted to believ then tho this afternoon when they showed exactly what's happening, that band will pivot as it pulls east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 In fact I think this will pivot back to nyc now that's how unpredictable this system is! It just keeps getting me back in it! Nyc may very well see a quick burst of snow, but not more than a quick inch or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Next 5hrs, light snow at best, maybe a small squall of moderate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Who's ready for Spring?ME!!! Feel like I haven't seen grass in forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The short term models have been 100% spot on, no one wanted to believ then tho this afternoon when they showed exactly what's happening, that band will pivot as it pulls eastExactly. Exactly, although while pivoting I'm pretty sure it will throw a bit of moisture toward NENJ/NYC. HRRR showed that as well. Again.....it'll be up to an inch, if that. If the HRRR showed 10 inches to come but the radar looked bad for us, many would still be waiting for the radar to explode as modeled. However, even though the HRRR has consistently showed that we simply won't get hit with much of anything in these parts and the radar still looks bad for us, many are still waiting for something.....anything.....to happen lol. The easiest way to tell that the Blizzard was not going to pan out was when the HRRR simply wanted no part of it at all as everyone was calling it the worst model ever that couldn't sniff out the complex situation at hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nyc may very well see a quick burst of snow, but not more than a quick inch or somay be more than an inch as it stalled the trough and it's literally spinning it towards the city! Hopefully it does at least but it's hard to tell. I don't look at models we all knew that this would be more of a Monmouth county special earlier today when dc was getting heavy snow. All models had the inverted trough negatively tilted and that could churn it northeasterward towards the city, you being in Orange county may be too north for this but nyc is still possibly in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 may be more than an inch as it stalled the trough and it's literally spinning it towards the city! Hopefully it does at least but it's hard to tell. I don't look at models we all knew that this would be more of a Monmouth county special earlier today when dc was getting heavy snow. All models had the inverted trough negatively tilted and that could churn it northeasterward towards the city, you being in Orange county may be too north for this but nyc is still possibly in the game. I'm in wallkill so I'm way out of the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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