Mophstymeo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It's not even a flizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Heavy snow continues in colts neck. You can see the radar back building in WCNJ out of DIX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Upton update finally THE LOW WAS MOVING EAST OF THE DELMARVA WHILE DEEPENING. THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS ONE WEAK LOW MOVES OVER CAPE COD WITH A WEAK MESO HIGH OVER LONG ISLAND. LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE JUST ALONG THE COAST OR SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO LATE TONIGHT. WITH SLIGHTLY LESS QPF EXPECTED FROM 00Z TO 06Z LOWERED THE SNOW AMOUNTS ABOUT AN INCH OR SO ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHEASTER NEW JERSEY AND INTO WESTERN LONG ISLAND. WHILE THE MODELS ALL AGREE ON THE GENERAL TRACK OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WITH THIS STORM...THERE ARE STILL QUITE A BIT OF DIVERGENCE IN THE DETAILS. DO EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF LOCAL VARIABILITY IN SNOW FALL AMOUNTS...WITH VARIATIONS OF 2-6 INCHES OVER A 10-20 MILE DISTANCE QUITE POSSIBLE. THE SNOW FALL FORECAST WILL BE REFINED FURTHER THIS EVENING AS THE PLACEMENT OF SNOW BANDS BECOMES MORE EVIDENT. THE NAM/CMC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF SUGGEST A PRECIPITATION MINIMA WILL DEVELOP OVER CT/FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE GFS/SREF HAVE THE HEAVIEST SNOW OVER THE SAME AREA. MESO- SCALE MODELS DO LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM/CMC IN WANTING TO PLACE THE TROWAL AND ITS ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND FROM CENTRAL-WESTERN LONG ISLAND ON NW INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT...WHILE THE GFS PLACES IT OVER CT/CENTRAL/EASTERN LONG ISLAND...THE ECMWF S OF LONG ISLAND/NYC. NOTING THUNDER OVER SW PA/N WV AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER SNOW AS WELL. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING THOUGH TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH AN EXPECTATION OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR AND/OR GUSTS TO AT LEAST 60 MPH FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM SUNDAY FOR NYC/NASSAU COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NE NJ...THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE EXPECTATION OF SIMILAR WINDS IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREA. IN THE AREA UNDER THE WINTER STORM WARNING...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA NOT UNDER THE HIGH WIND WARNING/BLIZZARD WARNING EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-35MPH AND GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH. HAVE THUS CONTINUED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING/WIND ADVISORY PRODUCT AS APPLICABLE. IN ADDITION TO CAUSING BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCING VISIBILITIES...THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING DOWN BRANCHES AND POWER LINES...AND POSSIBLY SOME TREES AS WELL IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING/BLIZZARD WARNING AREAS. THIS WILL ADD POWER OUTAGES AND BLOCKED ROADWAYS TO THE HAZARDS IMPACTING THE AREA...BEYOND THE SNOW ITSELF. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT...AND RISE ONLY A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY. AS THE WINDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...WIND CHILLS WILL FALL OF TO FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10 BELOW...AND REMAIN NEAR THESE LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Eye damage for you Mr Pamela Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Moderate to heavy snow union nj. Numerous accidents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think Suffolk may pull this off,Jersey seems to be a surprise,but the rest are unknown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 So, which model had an open H7, cause neither the GFS or EURO did? 700mb (1).gif It's closed at H5 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It's closed at H5 though. Great, not the question though....Both Euro and GFS, from today mind you, had a closed H7 low strengthening as it traveled south of NYC. That is not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 2z RAP hardly a thing of beauty...but it is an improvement over the 0z & 1z runs...and does bring some snows up over the Island overnight. 3z RAP looks worse than the 2z RAP; I think that wraps it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Great, not the question though....Both Euro and GFS, from today mind you, had a closed H7 low strengthening as it traveled south of NYC. That is not happeningYeah I can't directly answer your question as I don't know why that is occurring. It's unusual to have H5 closed off but not H7, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metro Devils Fan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 3z RAP looks worse than the 2z RAP; I think that wraps it up. Even the wind is at most 20-25 mph Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Snowing again, just realized it's only 11, thought wad way later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks like Suffolk might still do well but radar looks like any heavy snow will miss Nassau county for the most part!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Event is finally starting, buckle up, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Event is finally starting, buckle up, Where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yeah I can't directly answer your question as I don't know why that is occurring. It's unusual to have H5 closed off but not H7, no? I see what you mean, I'm not sure. Although, I'm not sure H5 is as impressive as was previously modeled either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Winds suddenly just picked up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Where? Im in brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Event is finally starting, buckle up,Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Models to trust under 48 hours: RGEM RAP HRRR. All did well today, we just didn't wanna believe them. Closet global model was GGEM. GFS made a big big loss. This storm is basically over in an hour or two. Onto Tuesday into Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Im in brooklyn Can't wait for your post in the morning wondering what went wrong. I love you Ant but geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Gem-lam ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Models to trust under 48 hours: RGEM RAP HRRR. All did well today, we just didn't wanna believe them. Closet global model was GGEM. GFS made a big big loss. This storm is basically over in an hour or two. Onto Tuesday into WednesdayI don't understand why people are basically saying to write off this storm and move on when we have a major wind event on our doorsteps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Can't wait for your post in the morning wondering what went wrong. I love you Ant but geez. Snowing nicely here. Foot post ftl, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Can't wait for your post in the morning wondering what went wrong. I love you Ant but geez. He'll get an inch and be happy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 All I have to say is if I lose power with a half an inch of snow that fell 8 hours ago. I am going to be really bummed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Snowing nicely here. Foot post ftl, And it's over for you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 IVT looks DOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Sorry guys but it's over. I-195 should pick up maybe a few inches more, but besides that the snow is organizing around that area and then it will move out. It's times like this I'm glad I'm removed from all this. Weather here in Austin is much more certain than back home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.