IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 funny that we toss the GFS and think the NAM is better. New England crowd, tosses the NAM and rides the GFS. Still looks like a general 1-4 inches of snow. More going east or if you crank out the norlun. Best You're such a noob The snowiest model is always the most correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The fact that the GFS doesn't really show the norlun and pretty much every other model does should be a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 2/13 12z Summary for Sat PM (2/14) - Sun AM (2/15) Storm QPF NYC (TTN - NYC) 12:1 ratios with winds. SREF: 0.15 - 0.30 (2 - 5 inches) NAM: 0.15 - 0.40 (2 - 6 inches) RGEM: 0.25 - 0.50 (3 - 6 inches) GFS: 0.10 - 0.25 ( 1 - 3 inches) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Can't go wrong with 2-4" looks like a pretty good consensus. Winds will be interesting as well I wonder if we'll see those 60 mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The NAM was the only model to correctly foresee that pocket of heavy snow in the mid-Hudson Valley yesterday, and it seems to have done fairly well with mesoscale features in general this winter (hence its name, I suppose). I don't see any reason to oppose its inverted trough depiction, though obviously QPF may be overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Can't go wrong with 2-4" looks like a pretty good consensus. Winds will be interesting as well I wonder if we'll see those 60 mph gusts. I hope the winds aren't as crazy as predicted. Our power lines are all above ground. To have a power loss on Sat into Sun would be really bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The GFS has 10m winds of 35kts back to EPA on Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The NAM was the only model to correctly foresee that pocket of heavy snow in the mid-Hudson Valley yesterday, and it seems to have done fairly well with mesoscale features in general this winter (hence its name, I suppose). I don't see any reason to oppose its inverted trough depiction, though obviously QPF may be overdone. It has all been very consistent with putting that band of snow over the same area through ELI through WCT and into parts of SNY through several of its recent runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The GFS has 10m winds of 35kts back to EPA on Sunday afternoon.Sustained? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 50-55kt winds at 10m on the 12z GFS for almost all of SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Sustained? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 YesThanks, that's really impressive. I'm really excited for this storm, regardless of how much snow we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This is the windiest panel on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 2-4 a good call with higher amounts nyc to Li...not sure why I keep seeing posts talk about 6 inches in nj and ridiculous ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Unless I'm mistaken,the upgraded gfs, does fairly well to a certain time period, then sends to get a little bonkers lol. Upton upped there totals at 938 btw 6-8 now over parts of east end. Chances of blizzard warning for parts of long island? How many hours of high winds are we looking at? ( winds that are within the blizzard requirements) Last question,side I only now have gotten on to check updates, suppose to have Valentine's diner at girl friends parents house Saturday night, 5 or 6 pm. What would a rough guess time wise for eastern long island late afternoon/ evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The PSU E-wall now has zoomed in GFS panels like the NAM when you click on the detailed model views. Cool stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like the wind and cold will be the biggest stories. Potential widespread power outages on Sunday. Take a look at these forecasted wind chills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z GGEM is a bit hit. 0.25"+ all areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The H5 low passes SW of Philly in nearly a perfect spot for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm riding the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GGEM looks to be 4+ area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The UKMET looks like the RGEM to me, it also shows the inverted trof although its mostly for LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Either the GGEM is on drugs or the GFS is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Either the GGEM is on drugs or the GFS is Both are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Either the GGEM is on drugs or the GFS is Most likely gfs. Its alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toople Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 SnowGoose69, on 13 Feb 2015 - 11:47 AM, said:Both are My reaction to all the models especially GGEM and GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The GFS is the most north with the H5. Don't discount it but most/all other models agree that the H5 passes to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 FWIW, I posted a WPC discussion earlier from 130 am and they were discarding the GEM in favor of a compromise of the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 As with the last few storms, I'll be putting my trust in the HRRR about 12 hours before the snow starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's simple. The optimists are rooting for the GEM (which has far more support) and the negativos are rooting for the GFS. It's pretty simple. I'm admittedly a snow lover, so I hope the GEM wins. But I remain dumbfounded as to where people get this GFS is awesome feeling from. It was right (sort of) for the blizzard bust, but was otherwise terrible this season. It's selective memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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