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Valentine's Day weekend storm discussion part 2


Sickman

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It was just a quote from a movie, thought you'd appreciate that my friend.

Looks like the squall line will dump a quick inch or so

 

No problem; as you can see from my last post...I definitely "got it" :)

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The High Resolution 4 kilometer NAM *seems* to edge things a fraction further north than its cousin the regular NAM...and, like that Frost poem...that "has made (or may make to use the conditional tense) all the difference."

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Here's a summary of our storm tracking on americanwx (NYC forum).....

1)something on the horizon.....let's not get too worked up

2)euro shows it....lets follow it to the end.....

3)models almost all agree this is our chance.....separate thread made.....

4)they're backing off a bit but euro is holding serve

5)winter storm watches up.....locked and loaded for our big one

6)actually now it seems to be a faster mover. Might only be 6 hours of snow and not 36

7)NW suburbs will get this one good as well.....just as the models almost all lose it.....a few inches now

8)we lose hope.....then it's back! Some models show a dynamic situation. Someone's getting hammered

9)snow amounts have been increased for our area.....as models lose it again

10) ignore all models now. Radar looks robust. Models were also 2 degrees off with temperatures for some suburbs. Toss them. They can't handle the dynamics of this system

11)ignore radar as well. Wait for precip to blossom

12)oh well that one was close.....it could have been huge. We had it all going. H5 screamed potential. We're getting nothing

13) oh wait it's expanding a bit.....maybe an inch or two??

14)next up.....euro shows something for next week.....this has all the ingredients and will be the one

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The amazing part is how many bought into something that was reliant on the norlun verifying...this was a 1-4 storm based on model qpf

 

Well, to be honest, more than that. Vigorous 500 mb low dropping to our south, new surface low, also to our south, extreme arctic air being injected into dynamics, high ratio snow, etc.  Sounded plausible.

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The squall line is no freaking joke. The rates were insane and the wind on the backside was stronger than any thunderstorm I saw last year (granted last year sucked) 

 

We got absolutely hammered in Millersville.

 

If you guys cash in on it, get off the computer and take some time to appreciate it. 

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Well, to be honest, more than that. Vigorous 500 mb low dropping to our south, new surface low, also to our south, extreme arctic air being injected into dynamics, high ratio snow, etc.  Sounded plausible.

 

Its fairly hard to get a more perfect synoptic setup for snow around here...

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Here's a summary of our storm tracking on americanwx (NYC forum).....

1)something on the horizon.....let's not get too worked up

2)euro shows it....lets follow it to the end.....

3)models almost all agree this is our chance.....separate thread made.....

4)they're backing off a bit but euro is holding serve

5)winter storm watches up.....locked and loaded for our big one

6)actually now it seems to be a faster mover. Might only be 6 hours of snow and not 36

7)NW suburbs will get this one good as well.....just as the models almost all lose it.....a few inches now

8)we lose hope.....then it's back! Some models show a dynamic situation. Someone's getting hammered

9)snow amounts have been increased for our area.....as models lose it again

10) ignore all models now. Radar looks robust. Models were also 2 degrees off with temperatures for some suburbs. Toss them. They can't handle the dynamics of this system

11)ignore radar as well. Wait for precip to blossom

12)oh well that one was close.....it could have been huge. We had it all going. H5 screamed potential. We're getting nothing

13) oh wait it's expanding a bit.....maybe an inch or two??

14)next up.....euro shows something for next week.....this has all the ingredients and will be the one

lol.....wash, rinse, repeat

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The High Resolution 4 kilometer NAM *seems* to edge things a fraction further north than its cousin the regular NAM...and, like that Frost poem...that "has made (or may make to use the conditional tense) all the difference."

 

After taking a minute to see the simulated reflectivity on the quoted model; the 4 KM NAM at 0z doesn't exactly "get 'er done" either...

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