Jersey Shore snow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yeah it's time to watch the evolution of this storm, and stop looking at models. Focus on the radar and spc mesoscale analysis page. The HRRR has proven useful in the past in identifying banding features within storms. Had it been believed in the hours leading up to the NYC/NJ blizzard bust in January the forecasted snow amounts would have been lowered sooner. But, to each his own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You guys down around Freehold might do really well with this one.....i remember last season you were the snow magnet!** Finally!!** Bring it on I said to my plow foreman! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 21Z for what's it worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It has had the inverted trough over central NJ for the last 6 hours....could be wrong but it does not change dramatically every hour it keeps shifting the inverted trough south. my location was particularly sensitive to those shifts. it cut my QPF in half in 1 hour. i realize inverted troughs are impossible... but i look at the HRRR during every snow threat and it's just extremely unreliable. it routinely has dramatic changes in hourly runs. sometimes it does a remarkable job, but most of the time it's not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 21Z for what's it worth. Is it not strange that the greatest height falls are that far south? I would think they'd be off New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 EDIT : wow the RGEM did not bring it further south than its last run (I was thinking it was still over C/NNJ at 12z), but it's consistent with the banding over that same area. Looks almost identical.....really impressive The HRRR continues to bring the heaviest further south into C/SNJ now, as it has each run.....The new RGEM also has shifted much further south with the band (more so even than the HRRR, but close) : 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Man, it would be great if we get lucky for a change this winter here in Middlesex County. Hopefully 18z NAM is right about the inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Aren't temps already colder then modeled right now? I'm interested in the ratios this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Im 28..pretty close to progged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's nowcasting time folks. No need for models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick T Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Man, it would be great if we get lucky for a change this winter here in Middlesex County. Hopefully 18z NAM is right about the inverted trough. Bare spits in the snow pack in southern Middlesex county. Nice to see maybe some improvement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 EDIT : wow the RGEM did not bring it further south than its last run (I was thinking it was still over C/NNJ at 12z), but it's consistent with the banding over that same area. Looks almost identical.....really impressive The HRRR continues to bring the heaviest further south into C/SNJ now, as it has each run.....The new RGEM also has shifted much further south with the band (more so even than the HRRR, but close) : 18z 12z Lol that shows state college getting 0.3? erm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's nowcasting time folks. No need for models.Not trying to be sarcastic, but aren't the short term HI-res models based on the current trends and what we would look at while watching the radar to determine a short term forecast as we get closer to the snow's approach? Especially considering they are converging on an approximate location of where it will set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's nowcasting time folks. No need for models.Bingo... Interesting night coming up... Surprises in the making and likely in a very good way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Lol that shows state college getting 0.3? erm.... I've already got what this map shows 2+" imby. Models are a joke this year, watch the radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Bingo... Interesting night coming up... Surprises in the making and likely in a very good way. Looking at the radar. I'm encouraged to think this storm will over perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thundersnow with the squall line in PA. https://twitter.com/hashtag/PAWX?src=hash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's nowcasting time folks. No need for models. any educated guess on where the inverted trough sets up? the lack of model consensus makes this all the more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 any educated guess on where the inverted trough sets up? the lack of model consensus makes this all the more interesting. It's very hard to pinpoint Norluns. At this time models will wave back and forth with the exact location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looking at the radar. I'm encouraged to think this storm will over perform. Really? I would've thought the opposite. The only significant thing is the squall but that'll blow through in like 15 minutes if it even holds up this far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 For those keeping score at home, the 500mb low is still way up in Canada. We won't have the inverted trough until that feature slides to the southwest of NYC late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS!!! Going to be a big screw zone on a line southwest from MMU to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thundersnow with the squall line in PA. https://twitter.com/hashtag/PAWX?src=hash Lots of lightning showing up on the map http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&page_0=33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looking at the radar. I'm encouraged to think this storm will over perform. Yeah in eastern suffolk where I had a foot. I think the exact opposite in the city and western Long Island. Light barely accumulating snow continues in manhattan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thanks for the analysis. I'm surprised you're not a met. Dude just relax. This was just the initial wave. The show is between midnite and 6. There will b lightning in spots later . .3 to 6 may fall west to east with good ratios away from the wind, 50 kt wind gusts and your temp will tumble. Some in NWNJ and somers are reporting 2 inches already. It just getting underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Going to be a big screw zone on a line southwest from MMU to NYC.SW of that area seems to be the area that the short term models are consistently hitting harder, no? Coastal SNJ up and across to Trenton look to do very well.....hopefully the HRRR is wrong, but I know in the past I've doubted it (as we have with the Blizzard) even up until the time the precip hits and it's been pretty darn close (especially with it continuing its trends for 7 or so runs in a row and showing 1-2" additional in NNJ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 SW of that area seems to be the area that the short term models are consistently hitting harder, no? Coastal SNJ up and across to Trenton look to do very well.....hopefully the HRRR is wrong, but I know in the past I've doubted it (as we have with the Blizzard) even up until the time the precip hits and it's been pretty darn close (especially with it continuing its trends for 7 or so runs in a row and showing 1-2" additional in NNJ) That was going off the 18z GFS which hits NE NJ and SE NY the hardest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The arctic front does look impressive. The snow amounts still feel like a guessing game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That was going off the 18z GFS which hits NE NJ and SE NY the hardest.Ah ok gotcha.....it's surprising again how consistent the RGEM has been with its last couple runs and the HRRR with its last 7 runs as well as the NAM pretty similar (though north some) with the 3-6" area well south of here.....pretty hard to think that it's completely wrong, though we hope it is! Forky actually made a good call last night saying that the band should develop further south than progged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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