Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Valentine's Day weekend storm discussion part 2


Sickman

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Friendly reminder to everyone,they when talking about locations, long island,NYC,Jersey,etc. Try hard to be as specific to what area you may be referring/ talking to!! Less confusing and easier for all.

Also, EASTERN LONG ISLAND logs to be in or extremely close to 0.75 amounts..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Note quite Va/NC border but I was onto something, three days ago, that's for sure...

I certainly remember that I'm quite honestly I didn't think it was possible then. Extremely well done, and now the question is do you think that means the totals will have to be up? Clearly the models did not believe the local church if that far south. Are projected 3-6 or 4-8 depending on who you ask are largely based on the IV T so do me now see higher totals from SLP itself?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro shifted the inverted trough towards central NJ and now has a "screw" zone over western CT and the Hudson valley, along with lower amounts than previously in Long Island. About 0.2-0.3" for most of the region, more towards central NJ.

Seems to even fall in line with the latest RAP.....really surprising if this ends up a S/CNJ hit.....C/ELI obviously still take it home though here

a4819b68779d2078718a77ebd7e1ce64.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Reminds me of a summer convective event where each model has a different idea of

where to place the heaviest convection. The last time we saw a big convective spread

before an event ISP got 13.57 inches of rain. :D

Yup expecting something similar to the 13.57" liquid ...which translates to what snowfall-wise? ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Note quite Va/NC border but I was onto something, three days ago, that's for sure...

I certainly remember that I'm quite honestly I didn't think it was possible then. Extremely well done, and now the question is do you think that means the totals will have to be up? Clearly the models did not believe the local church if that far south. Are projected 3-6 or 4-8 depending on who you ask are largely based on the IV T so do me now see higher totals from SLP itself?

With the development of a secondary further south and west, it would give us the opportunity to see it intensify faster, and closer to the coast, which would allow some of the heavier banding to make it on shore. I am reluctant to begin greatly increasing totals at this point, but I would say that I strongly favor the high end of the already-predicted ranges for the region.

 

However the real surprises should come from the inverted trough--as indicated in the latest euro run, which could give much higher amounts to parts of central NJ where forecasts are for only a few inches.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yup expecting something similar to the 13.57" liquid ...which translates to what snowfall-wise? ;)

 

The convective parameters are so high with this it's no surprise each model has it's own idea where the heaviest

banding will set up. Would loved to have read a NWS nowcast if the laws of physics were a little different and that

August event in Islip was snow. ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With the development of a secondary further south and west, it would give us the opportunity to see it intensify faster, and closer to the coast, which would allow some of the heavier banding to make it on shore. I am reluctant to begin greatly increasing totals at this point, but I would say that I strongly favor the high end of the already-predicted ranges for the region.

However the real surprises should come from the inverted trough--as indicated in the latest euro run, which could give much higher amounts to parts of central NJ where forecasts are for only a few inches.

fully understand the reasoning but we both know that with the models seemingly evenly down the middle (high res) ,in terms of the IVT, that the trough may set up from Long Island to New York City to HPN or further south as predicted by some. Moreover , IVT are fickle animals it could be here for an hour two three four or five at one or two or three and rates per hour. Fair enough?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Huge bust potential either way. I could see this ending up with a lot of snow or a little snow. What looked like a big snowstorm for SNE is not turning out like that anymore. The focus for the trough has been now around NYC.

I can't believe that even at this hour we still have no clue where the norlun trough will set up
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...