UnionWeatherWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Take it to the bank. Lock it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Blizzard warning? Edit: n/m Did you know all of Suffolk is under one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The RGEM had it very south on some runs It had it over eastern MD at its end range a day or so ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Rpm puts the trough in NE jersey, NYC, LHV, sw CT, and LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It had it over eastern MD at its end range a day or so ago. That's where the greatest 3 hour pressure drop is now centered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Friendly reminder to everyone,they when talking about locations, long island,NYC,Jersey,etc. Try hard to be as specific to what area you may be referring/ talking to!! Less confusing and easier for all. Also, EASTERN LONG ISLAND logs to be in or extremely close to 0.75 amounts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 At least this will not be a sleet storm like we saw 8 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Latest 3 hour pressure change map continues to indicate the low tracking much further south. Note quite Va/NC border but I was onto something, three days ago, that's for sure... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45647-presidents-day-weekend-2015-storm-potential-214-215/?p=3365942 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro has inverted trough through central NJ (Monmouth & Ocean) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Note quite Va/NC border but I was onto something, three days ago, that's for sure... I certainly remember that I'm quite honestly I didn't think it was possible then. Extremely well done, and now the question is do you think that means the totals will have to be up? Clearly the models did not believe the local church if that far south. Are projected 3-6 or 4-8 depending on who you ask are largely based on the IV T so do me now see higher totals from SLP itself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The Euro shifted the inverted trough towards central NJ and now has a "screw" zone over western CT and the Hudson valley, along with lower amounts than previously in Long Island. About 0.2-0.3" for most of the region, more towards central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Everyone .15 - .20 East of an arc from Sandy Hook to just east of TTN to down near ACY - .30 .40 line just on-shore over SE Monmouth and coastal northern half of Ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The Euro shifted the inverted trough towards central NJ and now has a "screw" zone over western CT and the Hudson valley, along with lower amounts than previously in Long Island. About 0.2-0.3" for most of the region, more towards central NJ. Seems to even fall in line with the latest RAP.....really surprising if this ends up a S/CNJ hit.....C/ELI obviously still take it home though here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 LI doesn't exist on the RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 wow the rap looks great for li Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 LI doesn't exist on the RAPYeah sorry.....meant to say that the ocean south of CT takes home the best accumulations lol.....but yeah, the RAP is 8-10"+ for ELI and still snowing ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Reminds me of a summer convective event where each model has a different idea of where to place the heaviest convection. The last time we saw a big convective spread before an event ISP got 13.57 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=rap_jet:&runtime=2015021416&plot_type=acsnw_t3sfc&fcst=18&time_inc=60&num_times=19&model=rr&ptitle=RAP%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=18&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t3&adtfn=1 Latest Rap on 10:10 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Reminds me of a summer convective event where each model has a different idea of where to place the heaviest convection. The last time we saw a big convective spread before an event ISP got 13.57 inches of rain. Yup expecting something similar to the 13.57" liquid ...which translates to what snowfall-wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Two bad posts that don't help the discussion at all. Move to banter. I'll spell it out. Do you notice anything geographically off about the rap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 COD MET pressure falls http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/reg/index.php?type=northeast-ir-meso# click on the meso--from the product menu tab Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Note quite Va/NC border but I was onto something, three days ago, that's for sure... I certainly remember that I'm quite honestly I didn't think it was possible then. Extremely well done, and now the question is do you think that means the totals will have to be up? Clearly the models did not believe the local church if that far south. Are projected 3-6 or 4-8 depending on who you ask are largely based on the IV T so do me now see higher totals from SLP itself? With the development of a secondary further south and west, it would give us the opportunity to see it intensify faster, and closer to the coast, which would allow some of the heavier banding to make it on shore. I am reluctant to begin greatly increasing totals at this point, but I would say that I strongly favor the high end of the already-predicted ranges for the region. However the real surprises should come from the inverted trough--as indicated in the latest euro run, which could give much higher amounts to parts of central NJ where forecasts are for only a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'll spell it out. Do you notice anything geographically off about the rap? Yes I got your point. I just saw the image. Looks nice. How much is that using 1:10? I'm colorblind and those maps are not colorbind friendly lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yup expecting something similar to the 13.57" liquid ...which translates to what snowfall-wise? The convective parameters are so high with this it's no surprise each model has it's own idea where the heaviest banding will set up. Would loved to have read a NWS nowcast if the laws of physics were a little different and that August event in Islip was snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 With the development of a secondary further south and west, it would give us the opportunity to see it intensify faster, and closer to the coast, which would allow some of the heavier banding to make it on shore. I am reluctant to begin greatly increasing totals at this point, but I would say that I strongly favor the high end of the already-predicted ranges for the region. However the real surprises should come from the inverted trough--as indicated in the latest euro run, which could give much higher amounts to parts of central NJ where forecasts are for only a few inches. fully understand the reasoning but we both know that with the models seemingly evenly down the middle (high res) ,in terms of the IVT, that the trough may set up from Long Island to New York City to HPN or further south as predicted by some. Moreover , IVT are fickle animals it could be here for an hour two three four or five at one or two or three and rates per hour. Fair enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Flurries here in freehold..Latest hrrr looks pretty sweet for monmouth.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Huge bust potential either way. I could see this ending up with a lot of snow or a little snow. What looked like a big snowstorm for SNE is not turning out like that anymore. The focus for the trough has been now around NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Huge bust potential either way. I could see this ending up with a lot of snow or a little snow. What looked like a big snowstorm for SNE is not turning out like that anymore. The focus for the trough has been now around NYC. Bout time, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Huge bust potential either way. I could see this ending up with a lot of snow or a little snow. What looked like a big snowstorm for SNE is not turning out like that anymore. The focus for the trough has been now around NYC.I can't believe that even at this hour we still have no clue where the norlun trough will set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This Euro run did some strange stuff, not just up here but with the system down south in 2 days, it shifted 100 miles north from its 00Z run...I don't buy the INV trof that far south with a lot of short range models showing it still over LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.