Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 And what ratio would that be?no higher than 12:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Not a good run for NYC and a terrible run for NJ. Only a tenth or two, less as you go West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 And what ratio would that be? 15 to 1 cutting down because wind cause problems with snow growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 no higher than 12:1 I asked Rossi...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Damaging wind pulse potential on the 12z NAM 12-18z Sunday with portions of LI 60+ mph gusts possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Big hit from JFK East, very little West of the East River. No Western/Southern New England screw zone.So basically the nw suburbs (Rockland and Orange) get almost nothing? Screw zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 15 to 1 cutting down because wind cause problems with snow growth. So its not 15:1... What's the ratio after wind destruction?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So basically the nw suburbs (Rockland and Orange) get almost nothing? Screw zone? A tenth or two. The SV snow maps show an inch or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 RGEM NAM EURO SREF are all S of KNYC at H5 . GFS Is still North. And is up over NYC . So it is the GFS vs ALL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The GFS has more of a clipper, as the system begins to transfer and the coastal takes over the moisture goes with it. So essentially NJ to NYC get skipped over. NYC ends up a bit better than the NW burbs but they are right on the nothing line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 RGEM NAM EURO SREF are all S of KNYC at H5 . GFS Is still North. And is up over NYC . So it is the GFS vs ALL I wouldn't get all worked up over the GFS here since everything is against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 More than 7" of snow? That's what I got for the "blizzard." Or are you referring to the combo of snow, cold and high winds leading to poor visibility, especially when it's snowing? The combo....blizzard conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I asked Rossi...LOLwell this is a forum so if you ask a question in this forum expect answers from multiple people if you have a question for just Rossi PM him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So its not 15:1... What's the ratio after wind destruction?? I answered 12 to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Here ya go. GFS totals. 1-3. Nice way to pad the yearly snow totals for the area. Congrats Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 the .25" LE line goes through Western LI then up through the LHV on the 12z GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The combo....blizzard conditions The convective nature of this will be interesting to watch as the locations under the best banding can really beat expectations. There will be some fun nowcasting going on with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS snowmap for fun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS has .75 very close to (or over) the eastern tip of LI, it also look better for CT, it's more of a uniform QPF distribution with a sharp cutoff to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS completely different solution still. much more consolidated/mature low developing quicker, but just too far north/east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 QPF field on GFS much more smooth vs the ratty presentation on the NAM and RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 well this is a forum so if you ask a question in this forum expect answers from multiple people if you have a question for just Rossi PM him I know what this place is. I quoted Rossi. It wasn't a general question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The higher resolution models will be able to pick up the nuances of this system. The gfs looks way too dry I'd favor models like Nam/Rgem in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 QPF field on GFS much more smooth vs the ratty presentation on the NAM and RGEM It's smoothing out a little too much as this will be a short term Hi Res meso model forecast starting on Saturday. The nurlun convective band will have a sharper snowfall gradient in the JP zones. The Euro should also do better than GFS in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 All the other models are showing the inv trof so I don't think the gfs is handling this correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 All the other models are showing the inv trof so I don't think the gfs is handling this correctly. Well it tries to show it, definitely can see it a bit but it's resolution cannot pick it up correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The higher resolution models will be able to pick up the nuances of this system. The gfs looks way too dry I'd favor models like Nam/Rgem in this case. Don't ever favor the nam. I would argue quite the opposite. They are too honed in on micro features which is resulting in them struggling with the overall QPF shield. I think the GFS has a much more realistic handle on the QPF field as high-res models struggle with large dynamic systems, especially miller Bs. I'm not buying into the SNE shafting as advertised on the nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 funny that we toss the GFS and think the NAM is better. New England crowd, tosses the NAM and rides the GFS. Still looks like a general 1-4 inches of snow. More going east or if you crank out the norlun. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS Precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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