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Valentine's Day weekend storm discussion part 2


Sickman

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12 NAM does a good job of defying the laws of physics by not allowing hardly any rising air or generating any precipitation through Hour 18.

 

Its ok for a thin strip of land.  For areas SW of Staten Island and NE of Danbury, it is not very good...if under 0.25 LE is bad in your book. 

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People saying difficult forecast here---but I would much rather be forecasting for our area, versus SNE. NAM has been remarkably consistent on lack of qpf for them - too far northeast for the Norlun and too far southwest for the deformation band. NAM does have other support, namely the RGEM. Significant model spread, considering how close in we are...

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Question....Are we looking at convective feedback here? 

 

Could be. We're in the timeframe where the GFS is as good as any other model when it comes to storm tracks and qpf. The NAM seems suspect, especially with the other globals moving into somewhat better agreement with the GFS. Suffolk County still looks like it should get 4"-8" with some localized higher amounts and Boston should also do very well with perhaps 8"-14" (NAM notwithstanding). It will be interesting to see what happens and this could be another big success for the GFS if that model has another strong performance.

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People saying difficult forecast here---but I would much rather be forecasting for our area, versus SNE. NAM has been remarkably consistent on lack of qpf for them - too far northeast for the Norlun and too far southwest for the deformation band. NAM does have other support, namely the RGEM. Significant model spread, considering how close in we are...

Considering the forecast, the NAM is toaster bath worthy for a lot of SNE. The other mesoscale models seem to be trending in that direction too.

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Could be. We're in the timeframe where the GFS is as good as any other model when it comes to storm tracks and qpf. The NAM seems suspect, especially with the other globals moving into somewhat better agreement with the GFS. Suffolk County still looks like it should get 4"-8" with some localized higher amounts and Boston should also do very well with perhaps 8"-14" (NAM notwithstanding). It will be interesting to see what happens and this could be another big success for the GFS if that model has another strong performance.

If the GFS scores a coup here, it will be extremely hard to call it an outlier when it insists on a specific outcome run after run even if the other models don't show it
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