rogue Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It is a risky forecast, although I do not see how we are going to reach blizzard criteria. Easily. Definition is wind dependent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It strongly resembles the RGEM so far showing light WAA snows to start, by 9-10am we will know if we got GFS'd, if the Norlun isn't appearing on the end of the hrrr or rap runs we is screwed At this point, I'm just going to rely on your "the models never extend Norluns far enough" rule and hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 As usual, the RAP does its best to keep the coast dry until around sundown. Another model I can't stand. For time immemorial, the RAP always shows the same pattern...three years for precip to make it to the coast; once there, three minutes for it to exit stage right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 For time immemorial, the RAP always shows the same pattern...three years for precip to make it to the coast; once there, three minutes for it to exit stage right. The model's program must have one imperative, all-overriding, climatological algorithm built in; "water stabilizes." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Look for a BLIZZARD WARNING tomorrow night for the eastern half of Suffolk County Blizzard WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY423 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND SUFFOLK COUNTYLONG ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING......SNOW AND STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CTZ011-012-NYZ079-081-142100-/O.CAN.KOKX.WS.W.0004.150214T1800Z-150215T1800Z//O.NEW.KOKX.BZ.W.0002.150214T2300Z-150215T1800Z/SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-423 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM ESTSUNDAY......WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARDWARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM ESTSUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...HIGH WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 8 INCHES.* WINDS...WEST 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The model's program must have one imperative, all-overriding, climatological algorithm built it; "water stabilizes."Is that because marine layers are usually closer to isothermal than vertical profiles over land? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Watch for potential Norlun and wind enhancement if that second low develops inside the BM like 0z Euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Is that because marine layers are usually closer to isothermal than vertical profiles over land? I was asked why less precipitation usually falls at the immediate coast a few days ago...here's a copy n paste of my answer plus my comments on variations on this principle in tropical realms... Now as far as things like thunderstorms go...and why they tend to dissipate as they approach the immediate coast...this is tied in to the fact that the ocean, being cold relative to the land, has a strong tendency to stabilize the atmosphere. Thunderstorms are heavily fueled by the sharp contrast in temperature between the temperature at the surface (ground level) and the temperature thousands of feet up in the sky (often below freezing...even in summertime...recall my post a minute ago about air temps generally falling one degree for every three hundred feet you ascend). Now this contrast...especially when the ground is being heated on a hot summer day...leads to rising air...and when air rises...it concurrently cools and condenses...potentially creating a cloud and a shower... this is known as convection. But because the ocean is cold compared to the land, it stabilizes the atmosphere (the process of convection is a testimony to the concept of unstable, rising air). This stabilizing effect badly hampers the convective process...invariably weakening most thunderstorms that approach spots right on the water. There are a lot of factors in play down in Florida that cause it to materially differ from Long Island...Much of Florida can be classified as either tropical or sub tropical...and most of their thunderstorm activity is not generated by the approach of what we call mid latitude cyclones or even cold fronts...the temperature contrasts down there are seldom great enough...especially in South Florida...to cause many genuine cold fronts to plow through, except during the winter. Most thunderstorms in Florida are non frontal...and they are generated by daytime heating...there are several factors in play...including the complex interactions of what we call sea breeze fronts. The waters off of Florida, are, of course, much warmer than the Long Island waters...though the waters off N. Florida do get cool in the latter part of the winter...but they are usually pretty warm most of the year and consequently play a smaller role in inhibiting convective activity than the LI waters. But even still, as a general rule, places a few miles inland in Florida are usually somewhat wetter overall than the immediate beach front because water is a stabilizing force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Is that because marine layers are usually closer to isothermal than vertical profiles over land? Similar principle holds true during the cold season...New London County CT....a stones throw from Block Island....always comes up on the short end of the stick with regards to precip amounts compared to western CT or Fairfield County...now topography may come into play...but the stabilizing effect of so much water is also a major contributor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thanks so much. Will digest when I'm back at the desk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 OKX went with wind advisories and Mt Holly and LWX (DC area),went with high wind warmings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 6z GFS says it's ripping out here at 12z sun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 OKX went with wind advisories and Mt Holly and LWX (DC area),went with high wind warmings. Excellent collab. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Excellent collab. Exactly what I was going to say!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looking forward to a nice 2-4" and wind type event... enjoy all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looking forward to a nice 2-4" and wind type event... enjoy all. We'll see how much this thing can really drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 We'll see how much this thing can really drop. Indeed.. 4-8 under the trough. Question is where...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Similar principle holds true during the cold season...New London County CT....a stones throw from Block Island....always comes up on the short end of the stick with regards to precip amounts compared to western CT or Fairfield County...now topography may come into play...but the stabilizing effect of so much water is also a major contributor.Why you aren't a professional met is beyond me Pamela. Excellent knowledge base and u out lay it out clearly and without condensending as some "pros" do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Man I'll tell ya, there may be some surprise amounts in the TTN-ACY corridor this evening, the convective squall line of snow is very impressive on some short range models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Man I'll tell ya, there may be some surprise amounts in the TTN-ACY corridor this evening, the convective squall line of snow is very impressive on some short range models Yeah, Lancaster special ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Man I'll tell ya, there may be some surprise amounts in the TTN-ACY corridor this evening, the convective squall line of snow is very impressive on some short range models Yep I noticed that. Hits that area good on the RAP : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 What time should we start seeing some action? 2-4pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 FWIW the new SREF seems to be going the way of the GFS slightly, the norlun is definitely more northeast...still no evidence of the norlun forming on the RAP, the latest 11Z run perhaps the early signs of it at 05Z but the signal is marginal at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thx to all that have provided insight to us Jerseyans down here! Feel more loved now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 FWIW the new SREF seems to be going the way of the GFS slightly, the norlun is definitely more northeast...still no evidence of the norlun forming on the RAP, the latest 11Z run perhaps the early signs of it at 05Z but the signal is marginal at best.Actually, the New SREFs bumped up the snow totals significantly on the plumes. Now 4-6" for the NYC area. EWR actually went from 2.5" mean on the last run to 4.5" this run. Manhattan went from 2.9" mean on the last run to 5.2" this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Actually, the New SREFs bumped up the snow totals significantly on the plumes. Now 4-6" for the NYC area. EWR actually went from 2.5" mean on the last run to 4.5" this run Very difficult to pinpoint noluns,but the region that falls under it will pour for several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 FWIW the new SREF seems to be going the way of the GFS slightly, the norlun is definitely more northeast...still no evidence of the norlun forming on the RAP, the latest 11Z run perhaps the early signs of it at 05Z but the signal is marginal at best. I thought it was starting to develop at the end of the 12z run, looks like over the city/LI and off to the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 6z GFS says it's ripping out here at 12z sun... 06_GFS_030_40.92,-72.84_skewt_ML.gif With unstable lapse rate like that, and perpendicular isotachs and isotherms at high speeds(intense lift) look for some heavy snow for a period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12Z NAM likes the norlun from roughly HPN to ISP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12 NAM does a good job of defying the laws of physics by not allowing hardly any rising air or generating any precipitation through Hour 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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