jm1220 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The Euro sets up the inverted trough nicely in NE NJ, NYC, and LI. Solid run. Interesting-I glanced at the NE forum and saw them happy about the Euro run and assumed it was bad for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Interesting-I glanced at the NE forum and saw them happy about the Euro run and assumed it was bad for you guys.It looks to be 3-4" for NENJ/NYC, 5-7" most of Long Island and 8-10" Boston area.....24-30" SE Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It looks to be 3-4" for NENJ/NYC, 5-7" most of Long Island and 8-10" Boston area.....24-30" SE Maine If the Euro qpf verifies, those numbers are too low. I know ratios are often, if not usually, over-estimated. But in this case 18:1 is conservative and higher than that is quite plausible. Given that, would have difficulty believing snowfalls under 5" in NYC, for example (again, presuming qpf numbers verify). This is not your typical clipper event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 If the Euro qpf verifies, those numbers are too low. I know ratios are often, if not usually, over-estimated. But in this case 18:1 is conservative and higher than that is quite plausible. Given that, would have difficulty believing snowfalls under 5" in NYC, for example (again, presuming qpf numbers verify). This is not your typical clipper event. If they are too low give us your numbers then not just the ratio This will be boston by next weekend http://www.weather.com/series/uncharted/video/digging-out-over-30-feet-of-snow-at-japan-alpine-route Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The huge ratios line is overplayed most of the time. The most to hope for realistically is 15:1, and 12:1 is most likely. The 20:1 stuff is rare and for perfect lift over the dendrite growth zone. (-8 to -12C) It's more common in lake effect bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The huge ratios line is overplayed most of the time. The most to hope for realistically is 15:1, and 12:1 is most likely. The 20:1 stuff is rare and for perfect lift over the dendrite growth zone. (-8 to -12C) It's more common in lake effect bands. High ratio snow is nice when it's falling and only about another 30 minutes after it stops. Then it condenses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The huge ratios line is overplayed most of the time. The most to hope for realistically is 15:1, and 12:1 is most likely. The 20:1 stuff is rare and for perfect lift over the dendrite growth zone. (-8 to -12C) It's more common in lake effect bands. Agree ratios are usually overplayed, as I stated, but not in this case. Certainly disagree that "the most to hope for is 15:1 and 12:1 is realistic". That is anything but realistic with this synoptic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The Euro sets up the inverted trough nicely in NE NJ, NYC, and LI. Solid run. Interesting. Seems like a consensus is being made. Though for some reason I still feel like I will be screwed by this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 6z NAM continues with the IVT over NYC, LI and CT. Parts of NENJ as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 .50" line near Queens on the 6z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I would still be very surprised if NYC proper gets good snow from this storm. It just gets a late start for you guys. Hope I'm wrong. Now for Middle and eastern LI, I do see some 3-6, 2-4" totals. But for big snow, you gotta be Up near Boston. Sorry guys. I hate being the wet towel. But someone has to say it as it is. One caveat, ya never really know where the deformation band sets up, it is always west of the storm. But more than likely it will be over central Conn or Western or Mid MASS- as if they need it. ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 But someone has to say it as it is. Like the mayor of Amity Island told Quint some 40 years ago, "We'll take it under advisement." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I would still be very surprised if NYC proper gets good snow from this storm. It just gets a late start for you guys. Hope I'm wrong. Now for Middle and eastern LI, I do see some 3-6, 2-4" totals. But for big snow, you gotta be Up near Boston. Sorry guys. I hate being the wet towel. But someone has to say it as it is. One caveat, ya never really know where the deformation band sets up, it is always west of the storm. But more than likely it will be over central Conn or Western or Mid MASS- as if they need it. ugh. I don't think anyone here with any sense of reality is expecting more than 1-3, 4 at the most. Far Eastern LI is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't think anyone here with any sense of reality is expecting more than 1-3, 4 at the most. Far Eastern LI is a different story. The 6z NAM and the 0z RGEM both seem to center the axis of heaviest snow for this area over the central portion of LI; the 6z NAM was a fraction to the west with that heaviest area of the 0z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The 6z NAM and the 0z RGEM both seem to center the axis of heaviest snow for this area over the central portion of LI; the 6z NAM was a fraction to the west with that heaviest area of the 0z RGEM The 06 RGEM continues the idea of the inverted trof although it does not want to do much with it over land, the worst is out over the water. It actually is south of NYC/LI with the convective band of snow 00-03Z mostly over central and southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Blizzard warning for Suffolk county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The 06 RGEM continues the idea of the inverted trof although it does not want to do much with it over land, the worst is out over the water. It actually is south of NYC/LI with the convective band of snow 00-03Z mostly over central and southern NJ. That model always ruins things; but Iron Rule One (according to AG3) is that the RGEM is *never* wrong inside 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That model always ruins things; but Iron Rule One (according to AG3) is that the RGEM is *never* wrong inside 24. It is a risky forecast, although I do not see how we are going to reach blizzard criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The 06 RGEM continues the idea of the inverted trof although it does not want to do much with it over land, the worst is out over the water. It actually is south of NYC/LI with the convective band of snow 00-03Z mostly over central and southern NJ. This is what I've been worried about with the inverted trough. Several runs on different models have shown it ots with minimal impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It is a risky forecast, although I do not see how we are going to reach blizzard criteria. As that thing starts to rapidly deepen in the waters east of the area...you might get a few hours of S+ with gales in some local areas. Its hard to say though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It is a risky forecast, although I do not see how we are going to reach blizzard criteria. I cannot recall Upton ever issuing a blizzard warning for Suffolk County that busted for Suffolk County specifically...though there always has to be a first time lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I cannot recall Upton ever issuing a blizzard warning for Suffolk County that busted for Suffolk County specifically...though there always has to be a first time lol. Even the clueless GFS gives decent snow to Suffolk, it does it via some bastardized manner but nevertheless it's there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I cannot recall Upton ever issuing a blizzard warning for Suffolk County that busted for Suffolk County specifically...though there always has to be a first time lol. I mean there might have been occasions when the technical definition of a blizzard (low visibility and length of time low visibility) was not technically breached...but there was always plenty of heavy snow & wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Even the clueless GFS gives decent snow to Suffolk, it does it via some bastardized manner but nevertheless it's there If you just look at this thing from a purely synoptic point of view...Long Island *should* see some fairly decent snows & strong winds...sometimes these models can get a little crazy when they throw these Norluns into the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Obs thread created for this storm. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45726-february-14-15-2015-storm-observations/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 If you just look at this thing from a purely synoptic point of view...Long Island *should* see some fairly decent snows & strong winds...sometimes these models can get a little crazy when they throw these Norluns into the mix. This was the first GFS run where I thought it was trying to see the Norlun, hardly got it but there was some hint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This was the first GFS run where I thought it was trying to see the Norlun, hardly got it but there was some hint The GFS *always* does well with clippers...during the 2003-04 winter...it never seemed to miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 As usual, the RAP does its best to keep the coast dry until around sundown. Another model I can't stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 this event is going to end up having the look of Xmas night 2002 with 5-8" of snow over primarily a 6 hour period book ended by less meaningful snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 As usual, the RAP does its best to keep the coast dry until around sundown. Another model I can't stand. It strongly resembles the RGEM so far showing light WAA snows to start, by 9-10am we will know if we got GFS'd, if the Norlun isn't appearing on the end of the hrrr or rap runs we is screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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