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Valentine's Day weekend storm discussion part 2


Sickman

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It looks to be 3-4" for NENJ/NYC, 5-7" most of Long Island and 8-10" Boston area.....24-30" SE Maine

 

If the Euro qpf verifies, those numbers are too low. I know ratios are often, if not usually, over-estimated. But in this case 18:1 is conservative and higher than that is quite plausible. Given that, would have difficulty believing snowfalls under 5" in NYC, for example (again, presuming qpf numbers verify). This is not your typical clipper event. 

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If the Euro qpf verifies, those numbers are too low. I know ratios are often, if not usually, over-estimated. But in this case 18:1 is conservative and higher than that is quite plausible. Given that, would have difficulty believing snowfalls under 5" in NYC, for example (again, presuming qpf numbers verify). This is not your typical clipper event. 

If they are too low give us your numbers then not just the ratio

 

 

This will be boston by next weekend

 

http://www.weather.com/series/uncharted/video/digging-out-over-30-feet-of-snow-at-japan-alpine-route

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The huge ratios line is overplayed most of the time. The most to hope for realistically is 15:1, and 12:1 is most likely. The 20:1 stuff is rare and for perfect lift over the dendrite growth zone. (-8 to -12C) It's more common in lake effect bands.

High ratio snow is nice when it's falling and only about another 30 minutes after it stops. Then it condenses.

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The huge ratios line is overplayed most of the time. The most to hope for realistically is 15:1, and 12:1 is most likely. The 20:1 stuff is rare and for perfect lift over the dendrite growth zone. (-8 to -12C) It's more common in lake effect bands.

Agree ratios are usually overplayed, as I stated, but not in this case. Certainly disagree that "the most to hope for is 15:1 and 12:1 is realistic". That is anything but realistic with this synoptic.

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I would still be very surprised if NYC proper gets good snow from this storm. It just gets a late start for you guys. Hope I'm wrong. Now for Middle and eastern LI, I do see some 3-6, 2-4" totals. But for big snow, you gotta be Up near Boston. Sorry guys. I hate being the wet towel. But someone has to say it as it is.

One caveat, ya never really know where the deformation band sets up, it is always west of the storm. But more than likely it will be over central Conn or Western or Mid MASS- as if they need it. ugh.

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 But someone has to say it as it is.

 

 

Like the mayor of Amity Island told Quint some 40 years ago, "We'll take it under advisement."

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I would still be very surprised if NYC proper gets good snow from this storm. It just gets a late start for you guys. Hope I'm wrong. Now for Middle and eastern LI, I do see some 3-6, 2-4" totals. But for big snow, you gotta be Up near Boston. Sorry guys. I hate being the wet towel. But someone has to say it as it is.

One caveat, ya never really know where the deformation band sets up, it is always west of the storm. But more than likely it will be over central Conn or Western or Mid MASS- as if they need it. ugh.

I don't think anyone here with any sense of reality is expecting more than 1-3, 4 at the most. Far Eastern LI is a different story.

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I don't think anyone here with any sense of reality is expecting more than 1-3, 4 at the most. Far Eastern LI is a different story.

 

The 6z NAM and the 0z RGEM both seem to center the axis of heaviest snow for this area over the central portion of LI; the 6z NAM was a fraction to the west with that heaviest area of the 0z RGEM

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The 6z NAM and the 0z RGEM both seem to center the axis of heaviest snow for this area over the central portion of LI; the 6z NAM was a fraction to the west with that heaviest area of the 0z RGEM

 

The 06 RGEM continues the idea of the inverted trof although it does not want to do much with it over land, the worst is out over the water.  It actually is south of NYC/LI with the convective band of snow 00-03Z mostly over central and southern NJ.

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The 06 RGEM continues the idea of the inverted trof although it does not want to do much with it over land, the worst is out over the water.  It actually is south of NYC/LI with the convective band of snow 00-03Z mostly over central and southern NJ.

 

That model always ruins things; but Iron Rule One (according to AG3)  is that the RGEM is *never* wrong inside 24. 

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The 06 RGEM continues the idea of the inverted trof although it does not want to do much with it over land, the worst is out over the water. It actually is south of NYC/LI with the convective band of snow 00-03Z mostly over central and southern NJ.

This is what I've been worried about with the inverted trough. Several runs on different models have shown it ots with minimal impacts.

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It is a risky forecast, although I do not see how we are going to reach blizzard criteria.

 

As that thing starts to rapidly deepen in the waters east of the area...you might get a few hours of S+ with gales in some local areas.  Its hard to say though. 

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It is a risky forecast, although I do not see how we are going to reach blizzard criteria.

 

I cannot recall Upton ever issuing a blizzard warning for Suffolk County that busted for Suffolk County specifically...though there always has to be a first time lol.

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I cannot recall Upton ever issuing a blizzard warning for Suffolk County that busted for Suffolk County specifically...though there always has to be a first time lol.

 

I mean there might have been occasions when the technical definition of a blizzard (low visibility and length of time low visibility) was not technically breached...but there was always plenty of heavy snow & wind. 

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Even the clueless GFS gives decent snow to Suffolk, it does it via some bastardized manner but nevertheless it's there

 

If you just look at this thing from a purely synoptic point of view...Long Island *should* see some fairly decent snows & strong winds...sometimes these models can get a little crazy when they throw these Norluns into the mix. 

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If you just look at this thing from a purely synoptic point of view...Long Island *should* see some fairly decent snows & strong winds...sometimes these models can get a little crazy when they throw these Norluns into the mix.

This was the first GFS run where I thought it was trying to see the Norlun, hardly got it but there was some hint

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This was the first GFS run where I thought it was trying to see the Norlun, hardly got it but there was some hint

 

The GFS *always* does well with clippers...during the 2003-04 winter...it never seemed to miss. 

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As usual, the RAP does its best to keep the coast dry until around sundown. Another model I can't stand.

It strongly resembles the RGEM so far showing light WAA snows to start, by 9-10am we will know if we got GFS'd, if the Norlun isn't appearing on the end of the hrrr or rap runs we is screwed

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