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Valentine's Day weekend storm discussion part 2


Sickman

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A lot of other models show them getting underwhelmed. I wouldn't bank on them doing more than a moderate accumulation.

We're now sufficiently close to the event where the GFS's verification scores are often as good as any other model. Details such as the placement of the possible Norlun trough probably won't be resolved until tomorrow, but in the larger picture a significant snowfall in at least eastern New England, including Boston, is a pretty good bet.

 

FWIW, to date, Boston's snowfall is running 6.5" ahead of 1995-96's snowfall. 1995-96 saw a record 107.6" snow fall in Boston.

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A lot of other models show them getting underwhelmed. I wouldn't bank on them doing more than a moderate accumulation.

this setup really favors SNE and especially Boston not to say that inverted trough could give us some overperforming snows through our areA. I'd say 10 inches is a lock for Boston!
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this setup really favors SNE and especially Boston not to say that inverted trough could give us some overperforming snows through our areA. I'd say 10 inches is a lock for Boston!

I'd say north of Boston. A fair amount of guidance has Boston with less qpf. They're on the dividing line so I don't know if 10 inches is a lock.

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0z GGEM has the trough over NYC

 

I don't get why the GFS does not see it, my understanding is the GGEM and Euro are also "lower" resolution models but perhaps there is a parameter they have which the GFS does not.  For the record, I don't think what people thought was the norlun in SNE on the GFS is really that, its simply an extension of the developing CCB.

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Upton
 

 


ON ADDITION TO THE SNOW...EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THIS
STORM FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT WINDS TO BE ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT...SO HAVE FOLDED THE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS INTO THE WSW PRODUCT THERE. ELSEWHERE HAVE AROUND A 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY
FOR GUSTS TO 60 MPH. HAVE CONTINUED THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AREAS
NOT UNDER THE WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING...WHERE FOLDED THE WINDS
INTO THE WSW PRODUCT. NOTE...IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN REACHING
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA...THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT
BLIZZARD WARNINGS WILL HAVE TO BE ISSUED IN THOSE AREAS. FOR NOW
THOUGH...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN AT LEAST 3 HOURS OF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO DO SO...SO HIGHLIGHTING POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.

 

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2/14 (00z) Guidance Summary for Sat (2/14) - Sun (2/15)

 

2:PM  - 5PM Sat  start /  early PM Sun ends

 

QPF NYC (CNJ-NYC-E) / 12:1 ratios

 

SREF: 0.15 - 0.20 

NAM:  0.25 - 0.45 

RGEM: 0.20 - 0.40

GFS: 0.10 - 0.25 

GGEM: 0.15 - 0.40

UKMET:  0.20 - 0.45

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Really tough call for the CT River Valley and west of 495 in New England. If the CCB and coastal development are east of them and the inverted trough south of them, they get shafted and at tops a few inches. I think Boston gets a solid 6-10" if not more. NYC/Long Island I'd say 3-6", with maybe 6-8" where the inverted trough stalls. I'd be biting my nails if I was home in Long Beach right now-some of the models look good for a period of nice snow. 

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Really tough call for the CT River Valley and west of 495 in New England. If the CCB and coastal development are east of them and the inverted trough south of them, they get shafted and at tops a few inches. I think Boston gets a solid 6-10" if not more. NYC/Long Island I'd say 3-6", with maybe 6-8" where the inverted trough stalls. I'd be biting my nails if I was home in Long Beach right now-some of the models look good for a period of nice snow.

eastern long island more I'd imagine 3-6 easily middle of island
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Really tough call for the CT River Valley and west of 495 in New England. If the CCB and coastal development are east of them and the inverted trough south of them, they get shafted and at tops a few inches. I think Boston gets a solid 6-10" if not more. NYC/Long Island I'd say 3-6", with maybe 6-8" where the inverted trough stalls. I'd be biting my nails if I was home in Long Beach right now-some of the models look good for a period of nice snow.

Hey guys/gals...pls show us jerseyans some love once in a while
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Central NJ can mean a number of places. If you mean I-195 I'd say 1-3". The location of the inverted trough and where it pivots will determine a lot, and unfortunately NYC and east really have the biggest chance at it.

I define central jersey as TTN or 195 on North. Technically part of this sub forum.

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always appreciate your summary .. 3-5 good call NYC IMO

 

Agreed, but the inverted trough will add if not double those totals for a narrow area between CNJ into LI.

 

2-5 is a safe call for NJ/NYC area with localized amounts to 6 or more pending on enhanced accums from the inverted trough.

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I define central jersey as TTN or 195 on North. Technically part of this sub forum.

 

 

Some also mean central NJ as the I-287 corridor, though I guess the best term for that area would be N/C NJ.

 

I'd usually classify CNJ as  Monmouth, Middlesex, Mercer and somerset  or 195 to exit 11/12 turnpike.

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