Mitchel Volk Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 10-14 for Boston a true disaster considerations what is on the ground and the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 A lot of other models show them getting underwhelmed. I wouldn't bank on them doing more than a moderate accumulation. We're now sufficiently close to the event where the GFS's verification scores are often as good as any other model. Details such as the placement of the possible Norlun trough probably won't be resolved until tomorrow, but in the larger picture a significant snowfall in at least eastern New England, including Boston, is a pretty good bet. FWIW, to date, Boston's snowfall is running 6.5" ahead of 1995-96's snowfall. 1995-96 saw a record 107.6" snow fall in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 A lot of other models show them getting underwhelmed. I wouldn't bank on them doing more than a moderate accumulation.this setup really favors SNE and especially Boston not to say that inverted trough could give us some overperforming snows through our areA. I'd say 10 inches is a lock for Boston! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 this setup really favors SNE and especially Boston not to say that inverted trough could give us some overperforming snows through our areA. I'd say 10 inches is a lock for Boston! I'd say north of Boston. A fair amount of guidance has Boston with less qpf. They're on the dividing line so I don't know if 10 inches is a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 10-14 for Boston a true disaster considerations what is on the ground and the wind. Plus next week. Jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Plus next week. Jeez.im still wondering if nyc could get 50 inches this year I had nyc getting 54 inches lol if we get 40 I'll be happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The model agreement on the norlun minus the GFS is amazing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The SPC WRF also agrees with the RGEM on the convective squall 00-03Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 0z GGEM has the trough over NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 0z GGEM has the trough over NYC I don't get why the GFS does not see it, my understanding is the GGEM and Euro are also "lower" resolution models but perhaps there is a parameter they have which the GFS does not. For the record, I don't think what people thought was the norlun in SNE on the GFS is really that, its simply an extension of the developing CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Upton ON ADDITION TO THE SNOW...EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THISSTORM FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.EXPECT WINDS TO BE ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THELOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT...SO HAVE FOLDED THE ADVISORY LEVELWINDS INTO THE WSW PRODUCT THERE. ELSEWHERE HAVE AROUND A 50PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA...ESPECIALLYFOR GUSTS TO 60 MPH. HAVE CONTINUED THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AREASNOT UNDER THE WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING...WHERE FOLDED THE WINDSINTO THE WSW PRODUCT. NOTE...IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN REACHINGHIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA...THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THATBLIZZARD WARNINGS WILL HAVE TO BE ISSUED IN THOSE AREAS. FOR NOWTHOUGH...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN AT LEAST 3 HOURS OF BLIZZARDCONDITIONS TO DO SO...SO HIGHLIGHTING POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARDCONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 UKMET similar to RGEM and NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 UKMET similar to RGEM and NAM looks like a few inches of snow. weenies dancing in the street Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 2/14 (00z) Guidance Summary for Sat (2/14) - Sun (2/15) 2:PM - 5PM Sat start / early PM Sun ends QPF NYC (CNJ-NYC-E) / 12:1 ratios SREF: 0.15 - 0.20 NAM: 0.25 - 0.45 RGEM: 0.20 - 0.40 GFS: 0.10 - 0.25 GGEM: 0.15 - 0.40 UKMET: 0.20 - 0.45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Really tough call for the CT River Valley and west of 495 in New England. If the CCB and coastal development are east of them and the inverted trough south of them, they get shafted and at tops a few inches. I think Boston gets a solid 6-10" if not more. NYC/Long Island I'd say 3-6", with maybe 6-8" where the inverted trough stalls. I'd be biting my nails if I was home in Long Beach right now-some of the models look good for a period of nice snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Really tough call for the CT River Valley and west of 495 in New England. If the CCB and coastal development are east of them and the inverted trough south of them, they get shafted and at tops a few inches. I think Boston gets a solid 6-10" if not more. NYC/Long Island I'd say 3-6", with maybe 6-8" where the inverted trough stalls. I'd be biting my nails if I was home in Long Beach right now-some of the models look good for a period of nice snow.eastern long island more I'd imagine 3-6 easily middle of island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 given the sfc convergence axis i'd actually place the precip band a little SW of where the NAM has it Very good point. The PVA on the NAM agrees with you. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/PVATest0030.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 also, if you look at the wind map, the strongest winds don't happen until the trough dissipates. so wind actually won't be an issue with fracturing dendrites Soundings agree with this. Winds aren't strong enough to fracture dendrites during the peak of the inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Really tough call for the CT River Valley and west of 495 in New England. If the CCB and coastal development are east of them and the inverted trough south of them, they get shafted and at tops a few inches. I think Boston gets a solid 6-10" if not more. NYC/Long Island I'd say 3-6", with maybe 6-8" where the inverted trough stalls. I'd be biting my nails if I was home in Long Beach right now-some of the models look good for a period of nice snow.Hey guys/gals...pls show us jerseyans some love once in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hey guys/gals...pls show us jerseyans some love once in a while Central NJ can mean a number of places. If you mean I-195 I'd say 1-3". The location of the inverted trough and where it pivots will determine a lot, and unfortunately NYC and east really have the biggest chance at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 2/14 (00z) Guidance Summary for Sat (2/14) - Sun (2/15) 2:PM - 5PM Sat start / early PM Sun ends QPF NYC (CNJ-NYC-E) / 12:1 ratios SREF: 0.15 - 0.20 NAM: 0.25 - 0.45 RGEM: 0.20 - 0.40 GFS: 0.10 - 0.25 GGEM: 0.15 - 0.40 UKMET: 0.20 - 0.45 always appreciate your summary .. 3-5 good call NYC IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Central NJ can mean a number of places. If you mean I-195 I'd say 1-3". The location of the inverted trough and where it pivots will determine a lot, and unfortunately NYC and east really have the biggest chance at it. I define central jersey as TTN or 195 on North. Technically part of this sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I define central jersey as TTN or 195 on North. Technically part of this sub forum. Some also mean central NJ as the I-287 corridor, though I guess the best term for that area would be N/C NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 always appreciate your summary .. 3-5 good call NYC IMO Agreed, but the inverted trough will add if not double those totals for a narrow area between CNJ into LI. 2-5 is a safe call for NJ/NYC area with localized amounts to 6 or more pending on enhanced accums from the inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Posting from bed. Final call. Central Park 2. 8 inches Nurlon sets up around Staten Island to montgomery ny area.7 to 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I define central jersey as TTN or 195 on North. Technically part of this sub forum. Some also mean central NJ as the I-287 corridor, though I guess the best term for that area would be N/C NJ. I'd usually classify CNJ as Monmouth, Middlesex, Mercer and somerset or 195 to exit 11/12 turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Posting from bed. Final call. Central Park 2. 8 inches Nurlon sets up around Staten Island to montgomery ny area.7 to 10 2.8? Or 8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'd usually classify CNJ as Monmouth, Middlesex, Mercer and somerset or 195 to exit 11/12 turnpike.I'd add Union and Hunterdon to that list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The Euro sets up the inverted trough nicely in NE NJ, NYC, and LI. Solid run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The Euro sets up the inverted trough nicely in NE NJ, NYC, and LI. Solid run.is there an accordant solid increase inQPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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