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Valentine's Day weekend storm discussion part 2


Sickman

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the point people are trying to hammer home is that you cannot effectively nowcast a norlun a full day plus before the event. modeling is the best tool to use.

Late tomorrow morning the hrrr and rap will be in range and that is what I will look at. I'm done looking at the models, global or mesoscale until then because imo, any model showing a norlun over us is really suspect, again, just imo, based off history. Either way, tomorrow will be very interesting
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RGEM is pretty close to the NAM idea, I now think there will be a norlun in our area. This make predicting snowfall amounts very problematic. I am thinking aroun 4" for NYC but subject to change.

 

Its also doing what models often do with norluns, not extending them far enough inland, the convergence with land often causes the snow band to extend more inland than what the model shows.

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It's looks decent for a good chunk of NJ, NYC, and a solid event for LI. The Boston weenies better hope the RGEM doesn't verify.

 

In a similar tricky setup with the blizzard the RGEM was too far east with the CCB by 20-40 miles or so, if thats the case again with this Boston may be fine, the RGEM may be too far east with things out their way.

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I've said all along that I thought this was a 1-3" to 2-4" for northern 1/2 of NJ and immediate NYC area.

UNLESS norlun was an influence. No norlun influence I still think 2-3" is a good average in the area I mentioned.

fair enough hopefully we get that norlun sitting right over the area where the precipitation shield is bigger than modeled and everyone on here will be happy!
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