MANDA Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I just had to reply. Dude these only happen maybe once a year in the forecast area. it's there on the models. it will not be denied, except possibly over your house. If you want to see what occurs, check the philly eagles snow game last year. Thats one great example right there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 the point people are trying to hammer home is that you cannot effectively nowcast a norlun a full day plus before the event. modeling is the best tool to use.Late tomorrow morning the hrrr and rap will be in range and that is what I will look at. I'm done looking at the models, global or mesoscale until then because imo, any model showing a norlun over us is really suspect, again, just imo, based off history. Either way, tomorrow will be very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 And I'm assuming a guy named Norlun was the first who discovered this phenomenon. Heh. It's actually two individuals: Nogueria and Lundstedt. It should be written NORLUN, but I suppose after enough usage it becomes a word in its own right... sort of like DelMarVa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thats one great example right there! Not sure if this is sarcasm or not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Heh. It's actually two individuals: Nogueria and Lundstedt. It should be written NORLUN, but I suppose after enough usage it becomes a word in its own right... sort of like DelMarVa. Thank you for the knowledge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Nws I think was going with15:1 ratio as a compromise you the wind destroying good snow growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 given the sfc convergence axis i'd actually place the precip band a little SW of where the NAM has it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thats one great example right there!u still think nyc will get 1-2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The RGEM animation looks rather sickly (in a bad way)...though some areas see a few hours of moderate to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 also, if you look at the wind map, the strongest winds don't happen until the trough dissipates. so wind actually won't be an issue with fracturing dendrites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The RGEM animation looks rather sickly (in a bad way)...though some areas see a few hours of moderate to heavy snow. Yeah I just saw that. It's terrible NW of NYC.....barely anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 RGEM is pretty close to the NAM idea, I now think there will be a norlun in our area. This make predicting snowfall amounts very problematic. I am thinking aroun 4" for NYC but subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 u still think nyc will get 1-2? I've said all along that I thought this was a 1-3" to 2-4" for northern 1/2 of NJ and immediate NYC area. UNLESS norlun was an influence. No norlun influence I still think 2-3" is a good average in the area I mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 RGEM is pretty close to the NAM idea, I now think there will be a norlun in our area. This make predicting snowfall amounts very problematic. I am thinking aroun 4" for NYC but subject to change. Its also doing what models often do with norluns, not extending them far enough inland, the convergence with land often causes the snow band to extend more inland than what the model shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yeah I just saw that. It's terrible NW of NYC.....barely anything It's looks decent for a good chunk of NJ, NYC, and a solid event for LI. The Boston weenies better hope the RGEM doesn't verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The RGEM does sort of give a nod to the place where the 12/13/1988 one went... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's looks decent for a good chunk of NJ, NYC, and a solid event for LI. The Boston weenies better hope the RGEM doesn't verify. In a similar tricky setup with the blizzard the RGEM was too far east with the CCB by 20-40 miles or so, if thats the case again with this Boston may be fine, the RGEM may be too far east with things out their way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's looks decent for a good chunk of NJ, NYC, and a solid event for LI. The Boston weenies better hope the RGEM doesn't verify. nothing has changed. 1-4 inches. If the norlun smiles over your area, you get the 4- 7 inches the upton notes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I've said all along that I thought this was a 1-3" to 2-4" for northern 1/2 of NJ and immediate NYC area. UNLESS norlun was an influence. No norlun influence I still think 2-3" is a good average in the area I mentioned. fair enough hopefully we get that norlun sitting right over the area where the precipitation shield is bigger than modeled and everyone on here will be happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 most intersting aspect that i see, BWI get a few inches for the weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 0z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 most intersting aspect that i see, BWI get a few inches for the weenies lol this run actually has DC getting more snow than NYC. Would be funny if that happened ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Gfs has the norlun up in sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Gfs has the norlun up in sne Go with the hi res models. They are known to pinpoint these mesoscale systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS has wind gusts near 60 for the south shore of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 if anyone is wondering. 0 z gfs is 1 to max 3 inches in the metro area. cushed boston. lol truly amazing regarding boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 if anyone is wondering. 0 z gfs is 1 to max 3 inches in the metro area. cushed boston. lol truly amazing regarding boston. A lot of other models show them getting underwhelmed. I wouldn't bank on them doing more than a moderate accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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