Animal Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 00z NAM a very nice hit actually for the NYC area and LI as well as NE NJ and the lower Hudson Valley as it brings the Norlun right through the area this run you can't forecast where it set's up, hense the broad 3-7 inch forecast by upton. these band typically range 30 to 60 miles wide. it may hit snj per a few runs. just sayin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I would honestly ignore the nam. It's definitely not a negative thing to see this positive outcome but CMC-RDPS model IMO is better and I would really look out for that 0z run in a half hour?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Nowcast time. Ignore the nam it changed big time yet again. Hrrr and rap late tomorrow morning to get the real outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 With the surface low exiting the Delmarva/cape may good things can happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I would honestly ignore the nam. It's definitely not a negative thing to see this positive outcome but CMC-RDPS model IMO is better and I would really look out for that 0z run in a half hour?! It basically has the Norlun trof in the same spot the RGEM did, maybe a bit north as the RGEM has had it more south of NYC or over NYC most runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 For those wondering and wanting a quick explanation of what a Norlun trough is.....http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/video-norlun-trough/1351266009001 If I had to guess right now, I'd say that it hits W and ELI into WCT and SENY north of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 00z NAM a very nice hit actually for the NYC area and LI as well as NE NJ and the lower Hudson Valley as it brings the Norlun right through the area this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I would honestly ignore the nam. It's definitely not a negative thing to see this positive outcome but CMC-RDPS model IMO is better and I would really look out for that 0z run in a half hour?! you are wrong with the norlun events. it will be right , just =/- 20-70 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Once the 0Z globals run tonight, I'm paying attention to HRRR and RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Now is the time to watch for where this wants to set itself up. NAM on next 2 runs and RAP and HRRR starting early tomorrow should have a good handle on this. Of course nothing beats good old fashioned nowcasting. If anyone in NNJ and SE NYC want more than 1-3" it will have to come from the norlun. This has been the case for the last 3 days now. Even for a clipper turning the corner, the NAM's precipitation field (just the general shape of it) does not look right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It basically has the Norlun trof in the same spot the RGEM did, maybe a bit north as the RGEM has had it more south of NYC or over NYC most runs.yeah I've been saying I love that model it's almost perfect at this range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It basically has the Norlun trof in the same spot the RGEM did, maybe a bit north as the RGEM has had it more south of NYC or over NYC most runs. Over the years, I've found that the models tend to underestimate the snow amounts associated with Norluns (The area that gets hit with it and shows 3-5" on the models could very well receive more on the order of 5-10" totals I would think). They are just pretty much impossible to predict until you can see them forming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Norluns almost never hit the nyc area, the fact that any model is showing this, makes that outcome unlikely just based on established history, let's just save the headaches and nowcast this. Could this event defy past history? Sure, absolutely. Would I bet on it? Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Norluns almost never hit the nyc area, the fact that any model is showing this, makes that outcome unlikely just based on established history, let's just save the headaches and nowcast this. Could this event defy past history? Sure, absolutely. Would I bet on it? Nope Ok, so stop posting about the models if you are nowcasting it tmrw afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Norluns almost never hit the nyc area, the fact that any model is showing this, makes that outcome unlikely just based on established history, let's just save the headaches and nowcast this. Could this event defy past history? Sure, absolutely. Would I bet on it? Nope They do when they are oriented more west-east like this one is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Ok, so stop posting about the models if you are nowcasting it tmrw afternoon.Yes sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Over the years, I've found that the models tend to underestimate the snow amounts associated with Norluns (The area that gets hit with it and shows 3-5" on the models could very well receive more in the order of 5-10" totals I would think). They are just pretty much impossible to predict until you can see it formingi noticed the same thing... Also the fact that most systems are faster than modeled, but not a norlun setup. From my experience they always lasted longer than modeled! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 there's absolutly no reason to "toss" the nam i mean,agreed,it's a pretty horrible model but it's not showing anything outlandish,it's just another place the norlun could set up this is just as a valid solution as any model has shown at this juncture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Mr. Norlun would be proud of this discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Mr. Norlun would be proud of this discussion. I'm gonna assume this is a joke... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 If this was a time when a Norlun Trough hit our area it would be now... Due to the orientation of it across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Norluns almost never hit the nyc area, the fact that any model is showing this, makes that outcome unlikely just based on established history, let's just save the headaches and nowcast this. Could this event defy past history? Sure, absolutely. Would I bet on it? Nope I'll tell you man.....I'm a bit skeptical with anything that the models spit out this season as well, but let's think back.....Over the past several years, have we endured any weather events that have defied our established weather averages? A major snow event/blizzard or two? a hurricane? flooding rains? Keep your head up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm gonna assume this is a joke... And I'm assuming a guy named Norlun was the first who discovered this phenomenon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 We had a norlun a few years ago in mid March, (someone could find the date) got 5 inches in Central Park!! A great overperformer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Norluns almost never hit the nyc area, the fact that any model is showing this, makes that outcome unlikely just based on established history, let's just save the headaches and nowcast this. Could this event defy past history? Sure, absolutely. Would I bet on it? Nope I just had to reply. Dude these only happen maybe once a year in the forecast area. it's there on the models. it will not be denied, except possibly over your house. If you want to see what occurs, check the philly eagles snow game last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 What's everyone thoughts on coastal Monmouth county? What's to expect down this way? Most talk is about NYC ct an LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I just had to reply. Dude these only happen maybe once a year in the forecast area. it's there on the models. it will not be denied, except possibly over your house. If you want to see what occurs, check the philly eagles snow game last year. We will know the outcome in less than 24 hours from now. I already stated what I think the likely outcome is, if I'm wrong, so be it. From here on out, I'm just nowcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I just had to reply. Dude these only happen maybe once a year in the forecast area. it's there on the models. it will not be denied, except possibly over your house. If you want to see what occurs, check the philly eagles snow game last year. i could be wrong about this, but i am pretty sure that was not a norlun, but rather philly got caught under an intense CCB, mets feel free to correct me if i am wrong. there was a norlurn in philly in around 08-09 which hit hard for 8-10 quick inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 We will know the outcome in less than 24 hours from now. I already stated what I think the likely outcome is, if I'm wrong, so be it. From here on out, I'm just nowcasting the point people are trying to hammer home is that you cannot effectively nowcast a norlun a full day plus before the event. modeling is the best tool to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Changing topic briefly, Upton seems to BE 50/50 on issue blizzard warnings, so well see what the night brings ON ADDITION TO THE SNOW...EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THIS STORM FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BE ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT...SO HAVE FOLDED THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS INTO THE WSW PRODUCT THERE. ELSEWHERE HAVE AROUND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY FOR GUSTS TO 60 MPH. HAVE CONTINUED THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AREAS NOT UNDER THE WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING...WHERE FOLDED THE WINDS INTO THE WSW PRODUCT. NOTE...IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA...THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT BLIZZARD WARNINGS WILL HAVE TO BE ISSUED IN THOSE AREAS. FOR NOW THOUGH...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN AT LEAST 3 HOURS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DO SO...SO HIGHLIGHTING POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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