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Valentine's Day weekend storm discussion part 2


Sickman

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00z NAM a very nice hit actually for the NYC area and LI as well as NE NJ and the lower Hudson Valley as it brings the Norlun right through the area this run

 

you can't forecast where it set's up, hense the broad  3-7  inch forecast by upton.

these band typically range 30 to 60 miles wide.

it may hit snj per a few runs. just sayin.

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I would honestly ignore the nam. It's definitely not a negative thing to see this positive outcome but CMC-RDPS model IMO is better and I would really look out for that 0z run in a half hour?!

It basically has the Norlun trof in the same spot the RGEM did, maybe a bit north as the RGEM has had it more south of NYC or over NYC most runs.

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Now is the time to watch for where this wants to set itself up.  NAM on next 2 runs and RAP and HRRR starting early tomorrow should have a good handle on this.  Of course nothing beats good old fashioned nowcasting.  If anyone in NNJ and SE NYC want more than

1-3" it will have to come from the norlun.  This has been the case for the last 3 days now.

 

Even for a clipper turning the corner, the NAM's precipitation field (just the general shape of it) does not look right.

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It basically has the Norlun trof in the same spot the RGEM did, maybe a bit north as the RGEM has had it more south of NYC or over NYC most runs.

Over the years, I've found that the models tend to underestimate the snow amounts associated with Norluns (The area that gets hit with it and shows 3-5" on the models could very well receive more on the order of 5-10" totals I would think). They are just pretty much impossible to predict until you can see them forming

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Norluns almost never hit the nyc area, the fact that any model is showing this, makes that outcome unlikely just based on established history, let's just save the headaches and nowcast this. Could this event defy past history? Sure, absolutely. Would I bet on it? Nope

Ok, so stop posting about the models if you are nowcasting it tmrw afternoon.

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Norluns almost never hit the nyc area, the fact that any model is showing this, makes that outcome unlikely just based on established history, let's just save the headaches and nowcast this. Could this event defy past history? Sure, absolutely. Would I bet on it? Nope

They do when they are oriented more west-east like this one is

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Over the years, I've found that the models tend to underestimate the snow amounts associated with Norluns (The area that gets hit with it and shows 3-5" on the models could very well receive more in the order of 5-10" totals I would think). They are just pretty much impossible to predict until you can see it forming

i noticed the same thing... Also the fact that most systems are faster than modeled, but not a norlun setup. From my experience they always lasted longer than modeled!
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Norluns almost never hit the nyc area, the fact that any model is showing this, makes that outcome unlikely just based on established history, let's just save the headaches and nowcast this. Could this event defy past history? Sure, absolutely. Would I bet on it? Nope

I'll tell you man.....I'm a bit skeptical with anything that the models spit out this season as well, but let's think back.....Over the past several years, have we endured any weather events that have defied our established weather averages? A major snow event/blizzard or two? a hurricane? flooding rains? Keep your head up here

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Norluns almost never hit the nyc area, the fact that any model is showing this, makes that outcome unlikely just based on established history, let's just save the headaches and nowcast this. Could this event defy past history? Sure, absolutely. Would I bet on it? Nope

 

I just had to reply.

Dude these only happen maybe once a year in the forecast area.

it's there on the models. it will not be denied, except possibly over your house.

If you want to see what occurs, check the philly eagles snow game last year.

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I just had to reply.

Dude these only happen maybe once a year in the forecast area.

it's there on the models. it will not be denied, except possibly over your house.

If you want to see what occurs, check the philly eagles snow game last year.

We will know the outcome in less than 24 hours from now. I already stated what I think the likely outcome is, if I'm wrong, so be it. From here on out, I'm just nowcasting
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I just had to reply.

Dude these only happen maybe once a year in the forecast area.

it's there on the models. it will not be denied, except possibly over your house.

If you want to see what occurs, check the philly eagles snow game last year.

i could be wrong about this, but i am pretty sure that was not a norlun, but rather philly got caught under an intense CCB, mets feel free to correct me if i am wrong.  there was a norlurn in philly in around 08-09 which hit hard for 8-10 quick inches

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We will know the outcome in less than 24 hours from now. I already stated what I think the likely outcome is, if I'm wrong, so be it. From here on out, I'm just nowcasting

the point people are trying to hammer home is that you cannot effectively nowcast a norlun a full day plus before the event.   modeling is the best tool to use.

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Changing topic briefly, Upton seems to BE 50/50 on issue blizzard warnings, so well see what the night brings

ON ADDITION TO THE SNOW...EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THIS

STORM FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE

LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT...SO HAVE FOLDED THE ADVISORY LEVEL

WINDS INTO THE WSW PRODUCT THERE. ELSEWHERE HAVE AROUND A 50

PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY

FOR GUSTS TO 60 MPH. HAVE CONTINUED THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AREAS

NOT UNDER THE WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING...WHERE FOLDED THE WINDS

INTO THE WSW PRODUCT. NOTE...IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN REACHING

HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA...THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT

BLIZZARD WARNINGS WILL HAVE TO BE ISSUED IN THOSE AREAS. FOR NOW

THOUGH...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN AT LEAST 3 HOURS OF BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS TO DO SO...SO HIGHLIGHTING POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS.

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