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Valentine's Day weekend storm discussion part 2


Sickman

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now there's something you don't see often...where does it set up?

GFS has been turbulent to say the least. Warm front, Norlun, where the H5 sets up & where the SLP exists the coast are all complex factors, not  2 mention possible conmvective nature to the storm...best bet, IMO. Sit back, enjoy 2-4 and if the Norlun sots over you enjoy Christmas early because it will pour unexpected accumilatins

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GFS has been turbulent to say the least. Warm front, Norlun, where the H5 sets up & where the SLP exists the coast are all complex factors, not  2 mention possible conmvective nature to the storm...best bet, IMO. Sit back, enjoy 2-4 and if the Norlun sots over you enjoy Christmas early because it will pour unexpected accumilatins

 

In spite of the DT-like spelling errors, this is spot on excellent analysis!

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SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-
SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
424 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...
NEW YORK CITY...WESTERN AND CENTRAL LONG ISLAND...AND
SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARDS...STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...THE STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES...AND MAKE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES DIFFICULT...
ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES. BLOWING SNOW MAY
MAKE TRAVEL AND SNOW REMOVAL EFFORTS DIFFICULT.


 
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Hopefully the models will come to a full concensus at 00z tonight...Lol

Highly doubtful. And I think this is going to be a banding storm where some do very well and others jump out the window!!!

Especially if any sort of nurlun develops.

On thing I'm pretty certain of is there will be a mega band over eastern Suffolk and it's gonna puke 3" hour rates.

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The 21z SREFs have come down a bit. NYC area basically 2-4". Very sharp cutoff west of NYC again this time (1-3" NE NJ), however N and W of the city probably does quite well with that band that probably comes through LI, CT, and SNY. 4-8" though for C LI into ELI where there might even be closer to 10" (most members 7-10" Block Island). Boston area 10-15". Portions of northern coastal Maine into New Brunswick most members hold strong in the 25-50" range (realistically someone might get 3 feet of snow I would think)

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00z NAM a very nice hit actually for the NYC area and LI as well as NE NJ and the lower Hudson Valley as it brings the Norlun right through the area this run

Now is the time to watch for where this wants to set itself up.  NAM on next 2 runs and RAP and HRRR starting early tomorrow should have a good handle on this.  Of course nothing beats good old fashioned nowcasting.  If anyone in NNJ and SE NYC want more than

1-3" it will have to come from the norlun.  This has been the case for the last 3 days now.

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"It's the NAM...." So many debbie-downers in this thread. Its unbelievable. You are ignoring a model because it is the NAM under 72 hours? Bad, horrible post.

No, I ignore the NAM because its an outdated model and typically over-amplifies the situation, which subsequently makes it wrong most of the time.

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