nyblizz44 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 now there's something you don't see often...where does it set up? GFS has been turbulent to say the least. Warm front, Norlun, where the H5 sets up & where the SLP exists the coast are all complex factors, not 2 mention possible conmvective nature to the storm...best bet, IMO. Sit back, enjoy 2-4 and if the Norlun sots over you enjoy Christmas early because it will pour unexpected accumilatins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS has been turbulent to say the least. Warm front, Norlun, where the H5 sets up & where the SLP exists the coast are all complex factors, not 2 mention possible conmvective nature to the storm...best bet, IMO. Sit back, enjoy 2-4 and if the Norlun sots over you enjoy Christmas early because it will pour unexpected accumilatins In spite of the DT-like spelling errors, this is spot on excellent analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 100 miles is not major? lol. In this synoptic that can have large consequences. I said not a major shift from the 12z. Look at the data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looking at 18Z GFS it looks way to north with precip in lakes area. GFS had it snowing in Central Michigan, but atm, its snowing in Central Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looking at 18Z GFS it looks way to north with precip in lakes area. GFS had it snowing in Central Michigan, but atm, its snowing in Central Indiana. I noticed that this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z GFS snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z GFS snowfall Snowhole over NENJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Snowhole over NENJ. It kind of carves out NJ as a whole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looking at 18Z GFS it looks way to north with precip in lakes area. GFS had it snowing in Central Michigan, but atm, its snowing in Central Indiana. I see nothing falling in central Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I see nothing falling in central Indiana Very light precip.....I don't see anything wildly different. Obviously now is the time when we start checking to see if the models are "way off" and overanalyzing the radar and model comparisons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-424 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHTTHROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...* LOCATIONS...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...NEW YORK CITY...WESTERN AND CENTRAL LONG ISLAND...ANDSOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.* HAZARDS...STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.* WINDS...NORTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAYAFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...THE STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWERLINES...AND MAKE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES. BLOWING SNOW MAYMAKE TRAVEL AND SNOW REMOVAL EFFORTS DIFFICULT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 In spite of the DT-like spelling errors, this is spot on excellent analysis!lol I'm afraid you are right. Big fingers , small phone. Luckily brain functional after long, arduous work week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hopefully the models will come to a full concensus at 00z tonight...Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Any news on SREF'S? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hopefully the models will come to a full concensus at 00z tonight...Lol Highly doubtful. And I think this is going to be a banding storm where some do very well and others jump out the window!!! Especially if any sort of nurlun develops. On thing I'm pretty certain of is there will be a mega band over eastern Suffolk and it's gonna puke 3" hour rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Any news on SREF'S? went from 3.8 to 3.5 for LGA but most are below the mean, one or two members skewing it too high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The 21z SREFs have come down a bit. NYC area basically 2-4". Very sharp cutoff west of NYC again this time (1-3" NE NJ), however N and W of the city probably does quite well with that band that probably comes through LI, CT, and SNY. 4-8" though for C LI into ELI where there might even be closer to 10" (most members 7-10" Block Island). Boston area 10-15". Portions of northern coastal Maine into New Brunswick most members hold strong in the 25-50" range (realistically someone might get 3 feet of snow I would think) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The surface low on the 0z NAM at 24 hours is very close to where the 18z GFS had it at 30 hours and south of the 18z NAM's 30 hour position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Nam brings the norlun into nyc metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Nam brings the norlun into nyc metro Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Nam brings the norlun into nyc metro Dry slot into Sne....nam is persistent with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Nam brings the norlun into nyc metro usually decent at a possible area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 usually decent at a possible area. Yes! Stuff like that the nam can do well with. Did very well with the one in phl back in 09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 00z NAM a very nice hit actually for the NYC area and LI as well as NE NJ and the lower Hudson Valley as it brings the Norlun right through the area this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 city is prob close to .4 this run...also long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Do we still think the ratios are greater than 10:1 with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 city is prob close to .4 this run...also long island Yeah I'm sure at least that. If you're in and around NYC, this is exactly the run that you would want to verify with no changes at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 00z NAM a very nice hit actually for the NYC area and LI as well as NE NJ and the lower Hudson Valley as it brings the Norlun right through the area this run Now is the time to watch for where this wants to set itself up. NAM on next 2 runs and RAP and HRRR starting early tomorrow should have a good handle on this. Of course nothing beats good old fashioned nowcasting. If anyone in NNJ and SE NYC want more than 1-3" it will have to come from the norlun. This has been the case for the last 3 days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth.P Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 "It's the NAM...." So many debbie-downers in this thread. Its unbelievable. You are ignoring a model because it is the NAM under 72 hours? Bad, horrible post. No, I ignore the NAM because its an outdated model and typically over-amplifies the situation, which subsequently makes it wrong most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 2/14 (00z) Guidance Summary for Sat (2/14) - Sun (2/15) QPF NYC (CNJ-NYC-E) SREF: 0.15 - 0.20 (2 - 4 inches) NAM: 0.25 - 0.45 (3 - 6 inches) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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