yhbrooklyn Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Upped QPF to almost 1.00 in Eastern Sufflok at it hits the Norlun harder this run. That's not the norlun, that's the CCB developing overhead before it moves into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I dont know why you imply that this an bad run...it is no different than 12z. In fact, both the .25 line and the .50 line have shifted slightly westward vs. 12z. The GFS is never going to do a good job in picking up a small scale inverted trough feature.I think he's talking about the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 If I lived in Eastern Sufflok, my expectations wouldn't be as high for 1.00" of liquid. But I would expect blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I dont know why you imply that this an bad run...it is no different than 12z. In fact, both the .25 line and the .50 line have shifted slightly westward vs. 12z. The GFS is never going to do a good job in picking up a small scale inverted trough feature. QPF totals increased slightly because the coastal developed quicker, but the models that gave more than a few inches to Western sections had the inverted trough hanging back to PA while the coastal cranks near Cape Cod. And the wind for Western sections also got knocked down a peg. While still impressive it's not quite the same ominous look that 12z had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 all the models except the gfs have a stronger inverted trof feature and less precip for southern new england until you get to near maine. the gfs is completely on its own at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think he's talking about the wind. I dont think so........ "Long Island and New England hammered. No inverted trough. Completely lost. Just the main low pressure system that develops too late for NJ. Nothing more than a strong clipper" "I have a big feeling that this storm is going to be awful for anyone West of NYC in NNJ" "Hopefully this is just the 18z models acting up" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hopefully this is just the 18z models acting up. It was a major shift towards one consolidated low pressure system which would normally be great region wide, but it develops too late for the Western half. That's the story of the winter. Long Island is the place to be. We keep getting screwed in New Jersey. I'll be surprised if I see more than 1-2 inches here. The funny thing is this area is supposed to be better for snow than Long Island, but in recent years Long Island has been the best area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 That's the story of the winter. Long Island is the place to be. We keep getting screwed in New Jersey. I'll be surprised if I see more than 1-2 inches here. The funny thing is this area is supposed to be better for snow than Long Island, but in recent years Long Island has been the best area. Bombing clippers favor Long Island like we saw with the blizzard a few weeks ago. The rest of the snows were front end thumps on LI before PType issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This model is really not any worse for much of the area, yet it's better for central and eastern LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I guess we now know why Nws went with higher totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The GFS is shifting south yet again with the track of the 500mb low. Ultimately this was a total failure for the GFS which everyone was praising yesterday, at least in terms of the track at H5. Really, not a major shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Really, not a major shiftSince yesterday the GFS has shifted roughly 75 miles southwest with the track of the H5 low. And over 100 miles from two days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Long island is the place, I can remember vaguely winners back to 91 ice storm and 95 being snowy with snow as tall as my dad in places, 6 feet, can't recall what 97 was like though.. Was 5.9℉ out here in orient this morning, coldest that I could see on weather underground. Love winters But 1.0 qfp seriously?! That's a pretty big junk of snow if it materialized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 TT - 58 over my head on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Since yesterday the GFS has shifted roughly 75 miles southwest with the track of the H5 low. And over 100 miles from two days ago. Most of the models have shifted sw in the last 48 hours. I just think you made it sound like a sudden cave to other models. The .5 inch line shifted slightly west this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Uptons Updated Map..Hey when you post these, could you possibly post for all of NJ? Thanx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hey when you post these, could you possibly post for all of NJ? Thanx Upton does not forcast for 90% of nj. Mt holly nws does...you need to see mt holly maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Updated map for Mt. Holly This is the map u want to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 TT - 58 over my head on the GFS 18_GFS_036_40.84,-72.62_skewt_ML.gif That's thundersnow. Very impressive lapse rates 8.1 Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Don't get the call for 3-5 in Warren County, NJ, unless they think that 4-6 zone is where the norlun sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 That's thundersnow. Very impressive lapse rates 8.1 Wow! Going to be a kick ass squall line tomorrow evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Upton does not forcast for 90% of nj. Mt holly nws does...you need to see mt holly mapsGotcha. Thx much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Just saw 1-3 for south of 78...2-4 north on channel 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 That's the story of the winter. Long Island is the place to be. We keep getting screwed in New Jersey. I'll be surprised if I see more than 1-2 inches here. The funny thing is this area is supposed to be better for snow than Long Island, but in recent years Long Island has been the best area. Readington is south of 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS shows a backdoor warm-front over the NYC area tomorrow night. This is similar to the feature we had 2/10/10. It might mean the event over-performs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Really, not a major shift 100 miles is not major? lol. In this synoptic that can have large consequences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Readington is south of 78 Cape May has a higher annual average than Smithtown Ed...I read it in the "North & West of the City" Book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS shows a backdoor warm-front over the NYC area tomorrow night. This is similar to the feature we had 2/10/10. It might mean the event over-performs. Hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS shows a backdoor warm-front over the NYC area tomorrow night. This is similar to the feature we had 2/10/10. It might mean the event over-performs. now there's something you don't see often...where does it set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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