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Valentine's Day weekend storm discussion part 2


Sickman

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I dont know why you imply that this an bad run...it is no different than 12z.  In fact, both the .25 line and the .50 line have shifted slightly westward vs. 12z.  The GFS is never going to do a good job in picking up a small scale inverted trough feature. 

QPF totals increased slightly because the coastal developed quicker, but the models that gave more than a few inches to Western sections had the inverted trough hanging back to PA while the coastal cranks near Cape Cod.

 

And the wind for Western sections also got knocked down a peg. While still impressive it's not quite the same ominous look that 12z had.

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I think he's talking about the wind.

 

I dont think so........

 

"Long Island and New England hammered. No inverted trough. Completely lost. Just the main low pressure system that develops too late for NJ. Nothing more than a strong clipper"

 

"I have a big feeling that this storm is going to be awful for anyone West of NYC in NNJ"

 

"Hopefully this is just the 18z models acting up" 

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Hopefully this is just the 18z models acting up. It was a major shift towards one consolidated low pressure system which would normally be great region wide, but it develops too late for the Western half.

That's the story of the winter. Long Island is the place to be. We keep getting screwed in New Jersey. I'll be surprised if I see more than 1-2 inches here. The funny thing is this area is supposed to be better for snow than Long Island, but in recent years Long Island has been the best area.

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That's the story of the winter. Long Island is the place to be. We keep getting screwed in New Jersey. I'll be surprised if I see more than 1-2 inches here. The funny thing is this area is supposed to be better for snow than Long Island, but in recent years Long Island has been the best area.

 

Bombing clippers favor Long Island like we saw with the blizzard a few weeks ago. The rest of the snows were front end

thumps on LI before PType issues.

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Long island is the place, I can remember vaguely winners back to 91 ice storm and 95 being snowy with snow as tall as my dad in places, 6 feet,

can't recall what 97 was like though..

Was 5.9℉ out here in orient this morning, coldest that I could see on weather underground.

Love winters

But 1.0 qfp seriously?! That's a pretty big junk of snow if it materialized

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Since yesterday the GFS has shifted roughly 75 miles southwest with the track of the H5 low. And over 100 miles from two days ago.

Most of the models have shifted sw in the last 48 hours. I just think you made it sound like a sudden cave to other models. The .5 inch line shifted slightly west this run. 

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That's the story of the winter. Long Island is the place to be. We keep getting screwed in New Jersey. I'll be surprised if I see more than 1-2 inches here. The funny thing is this area is supposed to be better for snow than Long Island, but in recent years Long Island has been the best area.

 

Readington is south of 78

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Readington is south of 78

 

Cape May has a higher annual average than Smithtown Ed...I read it in the "North & West of the City" Book.

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