MJO812 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Nam is a great hit for nyc and li Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12z NAM for LI. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NAM = Good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 2:07 PM, Snow88 said: Nam is a great hit for nyc and li Are you sure the word great is the correct word choice here for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 2:06 PM, Pamela said: 12 NAM does a good job of defying the laws of physics by not allowing hardly any rising air or generating any precipitation through Hour 18. Its ok for a thin strip of land. For areas SW of Staten Island and NE of Danbury, it is not very good...if under 0.25 LE is bad in your book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Out to HR 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 1:51 PM, The Plowsman said: Thx to all that have provided insight to us Jerseyans down here! Feel more loved now... Don't get too used to it, you are still from Jersey On 2/14/2015 at 2:06 PM, SnowGoose69 said: 12Z NAM likes the norlun from roughly HPN to ISP Gimme 20 maybe 25 miles north of HPN please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 2:14 PM, Pamela said: Its ok for a thin strip of land. For areas SW of Staten Island and NE of Danbury, it is not very good...if under 0.25 LE is bad in your book. It seems to have no clue on the band swinging thru early this evening which most other short range models are showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 2:08 PM, Metsfan said: 12z NAM for LI. Nice! Those are the highest TT's combined with the steepest mid-level lapse rates that I have seen here for a winter storm. Someone under that band will get into some really intense thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks like 0.25-0.4" for NENJ/NYC/LI on the NAM with a nice Norlun feature/pseudo-CCB.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 2:12 PM, Animal said: Are you sure the word great is the correct word choice here for nycGreat for Long Island. Great is probably not the word I'd use for nyc, and I'd use a word that's not allowed here to describe what it looks like for areas nw of NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Question....Are we looking at convective feedback here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That's just a BLIZZARD for Nassau and Suffolk County . Visibility and Wind criteria should be met as per the 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Nam makes southern New England the new DT snow hole Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 People saying difficult forecast here---but I would much rather be forecasting for our area, versus SNE. NAM has been remarkably consistent on lack of qpf for them - too far northeast for the Norlun and too far southwest for the deformation band. NAM does have other support, namely the RGEM. Significant model spread, considering how close in we are... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12 z NAM storm totals. decent 2-5 inch event for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 2:22 PM, EasternLI said: Question....Are we looking at convective feedback here? Could be. We're in the timeframe where the GFS is as good as any other model when it comes to storm tracks and qpf. The NAM seems suspect, especially with the other globals moving into somewhat better agreement with the GFS. Suffolk County still looks like it should get 4"-8" with some localized higher amounts and Boston should also do very well with perhaps 8"-14" (NAM notwithstanding). It will be interesting to see what happens and this could be another big success for the GFS if that model has another strong performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 2:14 PM, gravitylover said: Don't get too used to it, you are still from Jersey opcorn: Gimme 20 maybe 25 miles north of HPN please. Yeah rite where you bennies love to go in warmer months! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thanks Don, I've liked the GFS in the past with these northern stream systems, but since the upgrade I have no idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 2:40 PM, jbenedet said: People saying difficult forecast here---but I would much rather be forecasting for our area, versus SNE. NAM has been remarkably consistent on lack of qpf for them - too far northeast for the Norlun and too far southwest for the deformation band. NAM does have other support, namely the RGEM. Significant model spread, considering how close in we are... Considering the forecast, the NAM is toaster bath worthy for a lot of SNE. The other mesoscale models seem to be trending in that direction too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 2:50 PM, donsutherland1 said: Could be. We're in the timeframe where the GFS is as good as any other model when it comes to storm tracks and qpf. The NAM seems suspect, especially with the other globals moving into somewhat better agreement with the GFS. Suffolk County still looks like it should get 4"-8" with some localized higher amounts and Boston should also do very well with perhaps 8"-14" (NAM notwithstanding). It will be interesting to see what happens and this could be another big success for the GFS if that model has another strong performance.If the GFS scores a coup here, it will be extremely hard to call it an outlier when it insists on a specific outcome run after run even if the other models don't show it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 2:57 PM, snowman19 said: If the GFS scores a coup here, it will be extremely hard to call it an outlier when it insists on a specific outcome run after run even if the other models don't show it Nam has been insisting many runs that the trough sets up over NYC/LI. Interesting battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth.P Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 2:59 PM, Snow88 said: Nam has been insisting many runs that the trough sets up over NYC/LI. Interesting battle. NAM insists on many things but it is still the NAM, so I really can't believe it. I think I will take the GFS over it anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 RGEM still showing inverted trof in similar spot...it too wants no part of the convective band now over NJ this evening, much like the NAM did not...it is very disorganized with what it had down in CNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 3:12 PM, SnowGoose69 said: RGEM still showing inverted trof in similar spot...it too wants no part of the convective band now over NJ this evening, much like the NAM did not...it is very disorganized with what it had down in CNJ RGEM has trof roughly in same spot as NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 3:14 PM, Zelocita Weather said: RGEM has trof roughly in same spot as NAM? Its slight SW of the NAM, a few Mets last night said they thought the NAM was placing it too far NE based on the convergence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 3:15 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Its slight SW of the NAM, a few Mets last night said they thought the NAM was placing it too far NE based on the convergen Thx, How does the QPF look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 3:15 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Its slight SW of the NAM, a few Mets last night said they thought the NAM was placing it too far NE based on the convergenceAny changes on the RAP and HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 If I average the RGEM/NAM I would say somewhere between NYC-Freehold or Edison Area for norlun. This is just me guessing. Not an actual pinpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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