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Valentine's Day weekend storm discussion part 2


Sickman

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  On 2/13/2015 at 9:15 PM, snowman19 said:

Thats what I was thinking. 4-6 for my area (Rockland)? No way, based on all the model runs that is way too high. I'd love to say otherwise but I'm being realistic here

I agree. I'll be dancing in the streets if we get 4-6 inches here in rockland county

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  On 2/13/2015 at 9:44 PM, IsentropicLift said:

The GFS is shifting south yet again with the track of the 500mb low. Ultimately this was a total failure for the GFS which everyone was praising yesterday, at least in terms of the track at H5.

Juno was supposed to be further southwest than it ended up based on modeling, so it was reasonable to be suspicious of this.
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  On 2/13/2015 at 8:21 PM, wthrmn654 said:

Thanks,though I don't see ones I saw back when I was in high school,. They need to make that a little better to understand winter season, and then tropical season etc..but thanks!

And how can you be unsure of meeting blizzard conditions?! With 6-8+/- inches, winds possibly guessing to 70 sustained for at least 2 days 25-35 mph... That's criteria met in my opinion..

Blizzard Warning: Issued for sustained or gusty winds of 35 mph or more, and falling or blowing snow creating visibilities at or below ¼ mile; these conditions should persist for at least three hours.

This is a good page to peruse.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/winterweather.html

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  On 2/13/2015 at 9:51 PM, IsentropicLift said:

Strongest winds shifted 20 miles southeast. I have a big feeling that this storm is going to be awful for anyone West of NYC in NNJ.

I dont know why you imply that this an bad run...it is no different than 12z.  In fact, both the .25 line and the .50 line have shifted slightly westward vs. 12z.  The GFS is never going to do a good job in picking up a small scale inverted trough feature. 

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