superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The model is just wrong, b/c that sounding would be snow. The NAM appears to have nailed the profile again. It's horrible on precip fields, but warm noses it does well... I attached a bufkit nam sounding from 18z for gso at 6pm below: Thank you. Makes sense. I guess I should give greater preference towards the NAM's temperatures profiles going forward. Man, it's frustrating to have it like the arctic tundra at the surface, but not even be able to get below freezing in the mid-levels. Oh, well. We should still do well with sleet, I suppose. We had somewhere between 1/4-1/2" of snow before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I know the nam had earlier been showing a warm nose above 850...at the 750 to 825mb level but i don't think it reached as far north as you guys. I'm in a great spot here in Gwinnett. Lots of icing going on. 30.7 F with a 29.x DP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's funny to see the intellicast radar blowing the snow/sleet lines. Usually that radar is actually really accurate with the snow/sleet fields. I'm not sure of the equation is uses, I'm assuming the 850mb 0 line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Still sleeting here and 18.1 degrees. I'm on the southern edge of the precip. Hopefully I can stay in it until the main band from the south comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Thank you. Makes sense. I guess I should give greater preference towards the NAM's temperatures profiles going forward. Man, it's frustrating to have it like the arctic tundra at the surface, but not even be able to get below freezing in the mid-levels. Oh, well. We should still do well with sleet, I suppose. We had somewhere between 1/4-1/2" of snow before the changeover. Yea from living up north the Nam which used to be the infamous ETA and I do miss that model a lot, has always been far superior in regards to low level resolution and damming events. Loved using it for impending snow and ice situations with shallow arctic boundaries and intrusions that would flow down from the St. Lawrence Valley into the northeast. Had some of our best ice storms that the nam would nail before any other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm sure they will be expanding warnings in their next update... quite clear most of the northern upstate is going to be stuck in FZRA for the duration of this event with possible ice accretion in the .75 to 1.0" range. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 455 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE A MOIST SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 5 PM...SFC TEMPS VERY SLOW TO RESPOND OVER THE LAKELANDS AND SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN BECAUSE OF WET BULB EFFECTS STILL KEEPING TEMPS SUPPRESSED AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS WITH FALLING PRECIP. GETTING SEVERAL REPORTS OF ICING FROM THE GREENWOOD/ABBEVILLE AREA...SO HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THINK TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY 8 PM OVER THE LAKELANDS. THE REST OF THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE UNCHANGED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 There's no hole. There wasn't supposed to be precip there. The fact that the Triangle got anything at all speaks to the south trend of the northern tongue of precip that was supposed to be in southern VA only. Thanks man. I saw your post in the other thread and didn't come back and delete this one. I'm with RDU though. If it's gonna flip to zr quickly, I'm fine with less precip. Wonder if we stay alert longer and avoid the big ice down here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm in a great spot here in Gwinnett. Lots of icing going on. 30.7 F with a 29.x DP. How is it performing on vehicles and pavement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'll just leave this here: https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201502162104-KRAH-WWUS82-SPSRAH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Thanks man. I saw your post in the other thread and didn't come back and delete this one. I'm with RDU though. If it's gonna flip to zr quickly, I'm fine with less precip. Wonder if we stay alert longer and avoid the big ice down here.... CR your going to get in the action soon. There are returns pushing in fast from the SW. I'm more afraid for your location than others for getting the most freezing rain. But as you said hopefully that will not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looking downstream from central NC there seems to be a lot of moisture aimed in this direction. Reading the recent updates from NWS RAH regarding areas "along and south of hwy 64" makes me nervous about how much of that ends up as freezing rain versus sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 CAE has got to upgrade Lancaster county to a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Thanks man. I saw your post in the other thread and didn't come back and delete this one. I'm with RDU though. If it's gonna flip to zr quickly, I'm fine with less precip. Wonder if we stay alert longer and avoid the big ice down here.... Still not buying the flip to majority of freezing rain, maybe 50/50. But if it does probably better we get precip holed. I do think the RAP has a good handle on the heaviest band will be. We are missing the one to the north now and will miss one south of overnight. That band to the south could be crippling, and will be, if it verifies. We are still on target for 0.5" or precip, not counting what has already fallen. So, maybe a 1/4" of sleet with 0.25" of freezing rain for us. Yikes...FAY to PGV could be without power for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I noticed the RGEM upticked QPF at 18z. Not sure if that was mentioned or not. Looks like the Triad area is in for a hell of a sleet storm at this point. Maybe we can rival what did last March without the freezing rain aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'll just leave this here: https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201502162104-KRAH-WWUS82-SPSRAH Yeh, I just read that a few minutes ago. They definitely didn't mince any words there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The NAM appears to change over RDU airport right around midnight. The nomogram is pretty much zr/ip mix from then till it ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeh, I just read that a few minutes ago. They definitely didn't mince any words there... It's going to be bad for Sanford/FAY/Goldsboro...turn out the lights there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 455 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 5 PM...SFC TEMPS VERY SLOW TO RESPOND OVER THE LAKELANDS AND SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN BECAUSE OF WET BULB EFFECTS STILL KEEPING TEMPS SUPPRESSED AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS WITH FALLING PRECIP. GETTING SEVERAL REPORTS OF ICING FROM THE GREENWOOD/ABBEVILLE AREA...SO HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THINK TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY 8 PM OVER THE LAKELANDS. THE REST OF THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE UNCHANGED. I'd like to see their reasoning for this statement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Still not buying the flip to majority of freezing rain, maybe 50/50. But if it does probably better we get precip holed. I do think the RAP has a good handle on the heaviest band will be. We are missing the one to the north now and will miss one south of overnight. That band to the south could be crippling, and will be, if it verifies. We are still on target for 0.5" or precip, not counting what has already fallen. So, maybe a 1/4" of sleet with 0.25" of freezing rain for us. Yikes...FAY to PGV could be without power for awhile. Pack, I wouldn't much into any model output at this time. Even if that occurred that hole is most likely at the high end of the .5 to .75 range. .75 of freezing rain is really bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Still not buying the flip to majority of freezing rain, maybe 50/50. But if it does probably better we get precip holed. I do think the RAP has a good handle on the heaviest band will be. We are missing the one to the north now and will miss one south of overnight. That band to the south could be crippling, and will be, if it verifies. We are still on target for 0.5" or precip, not counting what has already fallen. So, maybe a 1/4" of sleet with 0.25" of freezing rain for us. Yikes...FAY to PGV could be without power for awhile. We always seem to find the precip min. You stand a better chance of more sleet than me. By a mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Pack, I wouldn't much into any model output at this time. Even if that occurred that hole is most likely at the high end of the .5 to .75 range. .75 of freezing rain is really bad... Well I am thinking half and half, so let's say 0.35 is sleet, roughly 1" of sleet accumulation, then 0.3" of freezing rain. It's a bad ice storm, what they see south of us is going to be a disaster, if they see 1"+ QPF. Cold Rain is toeing the line with that banding too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'd like to see their reasoning for this statement... Yea, I have a davis station right on the shores of lake Hartwell which i would consider the middle of the "Lakelands", and it's 29.1 there right now with no signs of rising.... http://www.weatherlink.com/user/musserfarm/index.php?view=summary&headers=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The radar is impressive..I like looking at the hi-res one from NOAA... http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeh, I just read that a few minutes ago. They definitely didn't mince any words there... Whoa Nelly! When NWS issues text-talk like this it's time to to be prepared. Take it as; "'Excuse the formalities folks--this is about safety!' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It has been very impressive out to your SW here in the southern Foothills. Mod to heavy sleet since 4pm. The radar is impressive..I like looking at the hi-res one from NOAA... http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php http://www.weatherlink.com/user/musserfarm/index.php?view=summary&he Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 WRAL has .10 to .25 of freezing rain for here now. Looks like mostly sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 We always seem to find the precip min. You stand a better chance of more sleet than me. By a mile. Its already 60% rain here already temp down to 24 on my porch.........looks like we get a break though then the energy coming up firing the showers south or RDU near Fayettteville should start the real show DP is finally above 0 its made it to 3 lol....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It is now sleeting heavily in Spartanburg. Hope it at least stays 50/50 to not have any power issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Why do we look at models now for totals? Can't we look at radar and ground reports? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The radar is impressive..I like looking at the hi-res one from NOAA... http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php Looks like a firehose out of the Gulf. Looks like heavy sleet is in our future. Fun to be out in. Too bad the snow is done, but I don't see any reason we can't verify the forecast with sleet at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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