JQPublic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Haven't seen this question posed. Once sleet begins, does that indicate the warm nose has arrived (and in this case is here to stay)? Or can heavier precip rates/saturation of the column cause the precip to go back to snow? Not comparing this to the blizzard of 2000, but that's what happened here during that storm. Started off as rain and then a heavy wet snow and then as temps continued to drop a dry powdery snow w/ drifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 From my amateur perspective, that would be good for most NC folks correct? Limit the WWA on the NW side of the LP and keep the CAD locked in? Yep and limit or completely prevent the warm nose from producing a melting layer above the surface, allowing more precipitation to fall in the form of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 HRRR cut totals drastically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 FWIW, the 19z HRRR changes the Triad over at around 11 PM (2-3" SN) and still has IP going until the end of its run (5 AM). 0.5-0.6" QPF. More importantly, snow should move in over the next hour or two. Not really trusting the RAP overall yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Lastest HRRR has upped my location to .84 (up from around.6) HRRR cut totals drastically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 HRRR cut totals drastically Looks like it precip mins the 85 corridor. Still .4-.5" QPF, about what we talked about. NAM's cut back too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 does anyone think GSP may need to issue an ice storming warning for parts of the Upstate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 HRRR cut totals drastically For where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM/RAP continue to show an enhanced band from Raleigh NE to Roanoke Rapids. Will be interesting to see if that is sleet or freezing rain later tonight. Both models are right around 1 inch for Raleigh. should be a fun night of snow/ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeah, the HRRR has a precip minimum from CLT to Durham. Widremann screwzone in full effect. The RAP looks similar. I would have expected the precip minimum to be further west in the foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks like it precip mins the 85 corridor. Still .4-.5" QPF, about what we talked about. NAM's cut back too. Are y'all looking at 18z? Looks about the same for the upstate to me, maybe a little less. GSP did cut back ice totals quite a bit and moved the cut off further north, which seems a bit surprising given current temp trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 For where? Charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Are y'all looking at 18z? Looks about the same for the upstate to me, maybe a little less. GSP did cut back ice totals quite a bit and moved the cut off further north, which seems a bit surprising given current temp trends. 19z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 HRRR cut totals drastically Hickory to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This is in line with the update GSP put off around 3pm Are y'all looking at 18z? Looks about the same for the upstate to me, maybe a little less. GSP did cut back ice totals quite a bit and moved the cut off further north, which seems a bit surprising given current temp trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeah, the HRRR has a precip minimum from CLT to Durham. Widremann screwzone in full effect. The RAP looks similar. I would have expected the precip minimum to be further west in the foothills. There's already a hole forming on the radar to the southeast of here..... EDIT: Spoke too soon, looks like the returns are continuing to advance. I hate seeing the words "precip minimum" and "Durham" in the same sentence though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeah, the HRRR has a precip minimum from CLT to Durham. Widremann screwzone in full effect. The RAP looks similar. I would have expected the precip minimum to be further west in the foothills. It should be. It probably will, even the rap and hrrr's scales are too small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hickory to? not as much, but yes. my gut says the models are wrong because they cant see the mtns like we can. the lee of the apps will have <.35". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Just looking at the National Radar.. I would start to be getting concerned in Central NC right now. it looks like the lead wave of precip is going to be the main show and that axis of precip is already passing by to your south. I mean, obviously yall are going to get a great winter storm, but it might be more like .4 or .5 of total liquid instead of .75 to 1.00 of liquid. Just my opinion, fwiw http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php It almost looks like the convective line exending from LA to Northwestern GA could act to cut off the feed of moisture from the gulf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Geez, I dont know what the GSP office is smoking right now. They have zero ice in southern Oconee and basically all of Anderson County. My weather station is in the far southern tip of Oconee county and it's reading 30.0/25 right now with moderate rain falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marino13882 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Just looking at the National Radar.. I would start to be getting concerned in Central NC right now. it looks like the lead wave of precip is going to be the main show and that axis of precip is already passing by to your south. I mean, obviously yall are going to get a great winter storm, but it might be more like .4 or .5 of total liquid instead of .75 to 1.00 of liquid. Just my opinion, fwiw If it is going to be freezing rain, than I am okay with the drop in liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY......POTENTIAL FOR CRIPPLING ICE STORM INCREASING TONIGHT......WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT...OVERVIEW: SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN ENE ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT.PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS: INCREASING FROM WEST/SW THIS AFTERNOON... INCREASING TO NEAR 100% EVERYWHERE BETWEEN SUNSET AND MIDNIGHT... REMAINING ~100% OVERNIGHT...THEN ENDING FROM WEST-EAST 09-15Z TUE MORNING. STORM TOTAL LIQUID EQUIV PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.50-1.00".PRECIP TYPE/ACCUM: AN ATYPICALLY COLD/DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH /ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE/ TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING ICE STORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT EVAP COOLING POTENTIAL AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL MINIMIZE THE DURATION OF WARM ADVECTION /RETURN FLOW/ FROM THE ATLANTIC (ESP IN THE LOWEST LEVELS). ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS PRIOR TO 00Z THIS EVENING WILL BE SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FROM SOUTH/SE TO NORTH/NW BETWEEN SUNSET AND MIDNIGHT AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION PUSHES A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE INTO CENTRAL NC. THOUGH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR N/NW PIEDMONT...SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...WITH POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING ICE ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRIANGLE... COASTAL PLAIN...SANDHILLS...AND SW PIEDMONT WHERE SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AS MUCH AS 0.50-1.00" OF ICE. ALTHOUGH REALITY IS LIKELY TO BE MUCH LOWER DUE TO VARIABLE PTYPES (SLEET VERSUS FZRA) AND DURATIONS...SUFFICIENT EVIDENCE IS PRESENT TO WARRANT AN INCREASE IN ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS TO 0.25-0.50" SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE HWY 64 CORRIDOR. A SHARP GRADIENT IN ICE ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY NEAR THE SC BORDER WHERE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING AS THE SFC LOW PROGRESSES THROUGH SC TOWARD THE NC COAST...WHICH SUPPORTS KEEPING THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS SHOULD STABILIZE IN THE LOWER/MID 20S ACROSS THE N/NW PIEDMONT TONIGHT AND MID/UPPER 20S ALONG THE HWY 64 CORRIDOR. IMPACT: SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION ALONG/SOUTH OF THE HWY 64 CORRIDOR (INCLUDING TRIANGLE) WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE SEVERE/PROLONGED IMPACTS ON LOCAL INFRASTRUCTURE INCLUDING DOWNED TREES/POWER LINES...POWER OUTAGES...PROPERTY DAMAGE...IMPASSABLE ROADS...ETC. -VINCENT&& When they put it like that, it's really starting to concern me a great deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Just looking at the National Radar.. I would start to be getting concerned in Central NC right now. it looks like the lead wave of precip is going to be the main show and that axis of precip is already passing by to your south. I mean, obviously yall are going to get a great winter storm, but it might be more like .4 or .5 of total liquid instead of .75 to 1.00 of liquid. Just my opinion, fwiw http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php It almost looks like the convective line exending from LA to Northwestern GA could act to cut off the feed of moisture from the gulf... Have been thinking the same thing. Unless this storm pivots more due east, CLT to RDU is going to get less QPF. The main precip shield is just too far North and West. Is that modeled to happen during a transfer to the coast? Perhaps this is the reasoning for lower HRRR totals in recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I wonder if the storms to the south and west will rob moisture further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I wonder if the storms to the south and west will rob moisture further north. Something will knock down totals. You can bet on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Geez, I dont know what the GSP office is smoking right now. They have zero ice in southern Oconee and basically all of Anderson County. My weather station is in the far southern tip of Oconee county and it's reading 30.0/25 right now with moderate rain falling. Do you think an Ice Storm Warning are warranted for parts of the Upstate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I wonder if the storms to the south and west will rob moisture further north. And that is why HRRR is cutting the totals. Storms south of the Apps are robbing all the downstream moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Work is going to remain open unless DOT says stay off road. My shift is from 7pm till 7am and they will meet again at 7pm to decide if they want to close the plant. All the WSW wording talks about major impacts on the roads with the precip sticking quickly. Now I gotta decide if I say screw it and call out for tonight. Forecast has been upped to .25 to .50 ice with an inch of snow sleet mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Something will knock down totals. You can bet on it. If it's to be an ice storm, that's fine with me. If it's going to stay snow and sleet then I'll be upset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 And that is why HRRR is cutting the totals. Storms south of the Apps are robbing all the downstream moisture. I'm not sure if that convection is deep enough to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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