SnowDeac Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 SE winds already for metro area. Not liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 1010 slp along the Louisiana/Mississippi border. Weak surface pressures with this overrunning event, Can we even call it a MIller B type with the organization of the slp that weak? Maybe the coastal will be 998 or so, we will see. Seems similar to the models, maybe a tick south and east, but hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Does we think this earlier start time is going to mean an earlier onset to sleet as well as the low is moving faster? Or this just bonus snow rolling along the border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 SE winds already for metro area. Not liking. Yes... the surface southeasterly winds are going to absolutely critical here... HRRR is depicting a very tight temperature gradient between Hickory and Charlotte primarily due to where surface low tracks. The problem is there is this initial inverted trough which has set up over the east side of the Apps and the surface riding is not optimally placed for surface (hence southeasterly and not northeasterly winds). Thats why temperatures are warming areas CLT and southward. We need the precipitation to arrive here soon so temperatures can wetbulb and allow the in situ ridge to become entrenched and revert these winds back to northeasterly. That is what the HRRR does later in the forecast. If its too slow with the progression of the precip though, it might also be too slow with the winds flipping to northeasterly again as the in situ ridge intensifies. Right now it has Charlotte on the warm side of the boundary unfortunately which means primarily rain. Greenville, SC is literally on the edge between substantial frozen precipitation and more of a nuisance variety per HRRR. Hickory is entrenched in the cold sector and will probably go Snow/Sleet for the duration of the precipitation. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_2d_flt.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yes... the surface winds are going to absolutely critical here... HRRR is depicting a very tight temperature gradient between Hickory and Charlotte primarily due to where surface low tracks. Right now it has Charlotte on the warm side of the boundary unfortunately which means primarily rain. Greenville, SC is literally on the edge between substantial frozen precipitation and more of a nuisance variety per HRRR. Hickory is entrenched in the cold sector and will probably go Snow/Sleet for the duration of the precipitation. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_2d_flt.php img] Wow sure is a tight temperature gradient. My closest airport is KFQD in Rutherford County. Your map states 31° and I'm right on the line!Thanks for posting!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but the HRRR 2-m temperatures have consistently been 5-6 degrees warmer than observations at RDU today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 looks like GSP is out of this one. Both the latest NAM and GFS have us above freezing and have no hint of anything frozen. Just Cold Rain. Good luck fellow SE posters. An hour ago our WB was still 22 so there is a chance. But if the GFS/NAM are handling thermals correctly at all......good night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 looks like GSP is out of this one. Both the latest NAM and GFS have us above freezing and have no hint of anything frozen. Just Cold Rain. Good luck fellow SE posters. An hour ago our WB was still 22 so there is a chance. But if the GFS/NAM are handling thermals correctly at all......good night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 based on radar trends i think rdu has a good shot of seeing an initial 1" of snow before changeover to sleet. snowing already in roxboro and continuing to move south. hrrr has been way off based on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 looks like GSP is out of this one. Both the latest NAM and GFS have us above freezing and have no hint of anything frozen. Just Cold Rain. Good luck fellow SE posters. An hour ago our WB was still 22 so there is a chance. But if the GFS/NAM are handling thermals correctly at all......good night. see current obs thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 If precip starts in RDU earlier than expected, a lot of people are gonna be caught off guard again. People wait too long to leave work IMO... I know there are extenuating circumstances sometime... but I remember what happened last year and cars were stranded everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Radar looks like it's starting to pop over the northern foothills and Piedmont. Seems a bit earlier than expected, albeit virga. I wonder if this will get the column wet enough to give the southwest precip a head start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 based on radar trends i think rdu has a good shot of seeing an initial 1" of snow before changeover to sleet. snowing already in roxboro and continuing to move south. hrrr has been way off based on radar. Precip increasing off the mountains. I would think that is what will eventually get us. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=gsp&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but the HRRR 2-m temperatures have consistently been 5-6 degrees warmer than observations at RDU today. This is because the HRRR has substantially less cloud cover forecasted than reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Really liking returns starting to show up upstream of the triad and triangle. Nothing is reaching the surface yet, but anything that can moisten the column would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 looks like GSP is out of this one. Both the latest NAM and GFS have us above freezing and have no hint of anything frozen. Just Cold Rain. Good luck fellow SE posters. An hour ago our WB was still 22 so there is a chance. But if the GFS/NAM are handling thermals correctly at all......good night. 34 off of Augusta road in Greenville. right now and have a few flurries. Nice to see something frozen. I believe the wet bulbs will drive the temps down to around 31-32 degrees once it starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 If precip starts in RDU earlier than expected, a lot of people are gonna be caught off guard again. People wait too long to leave work IMO... I know there are extenuating circumstances sometime... but I remember what happened last year and cars were stranded everywhere It shouldn't be too bad. The initial precip shouldn't melt because the roads are cold so you won't have that layer of ice that causes the disastrous travel situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 see current obs thread Not saying either of you are right or wrong, but the observations we are seeing go along with what we thought we would see the first little bit of it. But everyone is above freezing and temps don't seem to be dropping in the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Out of curiosity, did anyone glance at the Euro? I'm wondering if it took a little jog south and was there any change with precip amounts? Seems like all of the other modeling has done this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GFS and NAM are going to bust on temps here today. We may make it to 32 but it wont get any higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This is because the HRRR has substantially less cloud cover forecasted than reality. Ahh, thanks for passing that along. I tried looking at OLR forecast elsewhere but the frames weren't loading for whatever reason. Interested to see if the freezing/non-freezing precip boundary extends further south than progged tonight as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Not saying either of you are right or wrong, but the observations we are seeing go along with what we thought we would see the first little bit of it. But everyone is above freezing and temps don't seem to be dropping in the upstate. I was basing my comments strickly on what the latest GFS and NAM results were (which I know are MR and not a SR models). But it did show a significant bump in 2M temps from what they have been showing for the last couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelvis Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GFS and NAM are going to bust on temps here today. We may make it to 32 but it wont get any higher. How high did they say the temps would be in clt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I was basing my comments strickly on what the latest GFS and NAM results were (which I know are MR and not a SR models). But it did show a significant bump in 2M temps from what they have been showing for the last couple of days. There is a significant bump, but they don't reflect the actual temperature lol. GFS had 41, actual temp 34 for Greenville at 1PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 There is a significant bump, but they don't reflect the actual temperature lol. GFS had 41, actual temp 34 for Greenville at 1PM. good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Just marvel at this CAD signature at the surface. Wow! (Imgur is overloaded or I would post the map.) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 @NWSRaleigh: If you live in central NC are u ready for possible lengthy power outages? Models are trending up w/ ice accumulation numbers for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Radar from Brad P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Amateur question: How do wet-bulb temperatures affect what's going to happen (as I see many discussing wet-bulb temps). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Amateur question: How do wet-bulb temperatures affect what's going to happen (as I see many discussing wet-bulb temps). It really doesn't "affect" what's going to happen.....WB is simply a measurement of what the temperature would drop to after air mass saturation..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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