packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This is exactly what always happens. I would agree w/ the precip hole the gfs and rgem are showing. With this being a Miller B I believe the transfer is really going to kill our overall qpf. I definitely don't trust the nam. It's a bummer, but we know we always get miller b'd. Maybe it will cut down on the freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think there will be a precip "hole" but I don't think it will be that drastic... I still think we get a decent amount of precip in the triangle.. and even so, .3 or .4 falling as IP or FZRA will cause big problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks like all the models have the big slug of precip rolling right on up I-85 now, which is nice for us. Probably heavy pingers after a good shot of snow. Seems to match up decently with the 12z RGEM, as well. The NAM was a little warmer, I think, but probably still a couple inches. That's a good look for you guys. RGEM is probably all snow for you through 3z. That's going to be a nice event, 3-4" with 1" of sleet, get the sleds ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think there will be a precip "hole" but I don't think it will be that drastic... I still think we get a decent amount of precip in the triangle.. and even so, .3 or .4 falling as IP or FZRA will cause big problems. Yeah, I'm thinking between .4 and .5 total qpf for the RDU area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 There might be a precip hole, but it's location is far from being set in stone. That swath of 0.5-0.7 could easily shift southeast, especially with some of the latest model runs taking this storm a bit further south. Very true...I'm just going by previous Miller B's for this area. The transfer seems to always cut our total qpf. But to be honest, I don't remember a Miller B taking this track. We'll have to wait and see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That's a good look for you guys. RGEM is probably all snow for you through 3z. That's going to be a nice event, 3-4" with 1" of sleet, get the sleds ready. One thing I have noticed is that the 850s have a very tight cutoff where it is way below 0C not far north of the line. I guess that could promote better ratios, and with frigid surface temps, it should stick immediately. Any thoughts on that, anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 At least here, this afternoon. However wins here are already east at about 10mph. interesting to note that temps have dropped to 32 just northeast of birmingham when the nam says they should have warmed to 40 or 41 by now. In fact dewpoints are such they could drop another degree or two. Going to be real interesting to see how temps..especially since precip is well ahead of where the nam says it will be and maybe even the gfs. Incredible differences between the gfs and nam over north ga btw. nam and gfs are 10 degrees apart on surface temps in some areas, in particular between gainesville and atlanta/athens. woke up this morning, looked out the window to see the dreaded sunshine the morning of a supposed storm. ha. temp 33 dewpoint is 10. am hopeful for something frozen today so this winter isnt a complete shut out. maybe since i used to be (saying used to be since the cads for the last 8 or 9 years havent been that great for mby) in a good cad area this time it will work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Very true...I'm just going by previous Miller B's for this area. The transfer seems to always cut our total qpf. But to be honest, I don't remember a Miller B taking this track. We'll have to wait and see how it plays out. Fair enough. It'd be nice to not have so many possible limiting factors for once. At least the temperature trends have mostly been in our favor so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Models consistantly bring 1-1.4 inches of QPF from NE Ga up to Anderson and GSP ! Moisture won't be a problem, temps questionable? Sitting at 32/2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeah, I'm thinking between .4 and .5 total qpf for the RDU area. I agree, that's about right. What the RGEM is showing. If we can squeeze out an inch of snow and an inch of sleet, that's probably going to be our best potential, with the low bar of 0.5" of snow and 1" of sleet. I don't buy the freezing rain with temps in the low 20's per RGEM/GFS. The NAM is 4-5F warmer with temps between 26-28F for the duration, still it's spitting out IP as the primary precip. If the NAM's precip is right it would be 3" of sleet, but with it's bias, cut in half and you have 1.5" of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 12z NAM came in with 1"+ of sleet for RDU. I'll take that over zr anyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Haha I don't want to make you more depressed to see the rain sounding (but seriously I can add it if there is desire!) I'll take a raincheck this time It looks like GSP (Spartanburg) is in for a nice little ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I added a few more HRRR soundings that should update hourly: KCLT KRDU KGSP FYI products update around :20 after the hour for the map plots, and :40 after the hour for the soundings. Let me know if you have any questions. The HRRR does look a bit on the warm side of CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The new GFS has done pretty well with QPF right? I know it was miles better with the Boston blizzard a couple weeks ago where it showed NY City getting very little, while the Euro and Nam showed lots of snow there. This Miller B precip min is why I was worried last night. Now the models seem to be reflecting that concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 One thing I have noticed is that the 850s have a very tight cutoff where it is way below 0C not far north of the line. I guess that could promote better ratios, and with frigid surface temps, it should stick immediately. Any thoughts on that, anyone? Good question, I don't know, I think you would need colder 850's, but initial snow until 0z you be solid but after that it may drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The new GFS has done pretty well with QPF right? I know it was miles better with the Boston blizzard a couple weeks ago where it showed NY City getting very little, while the Euro and Nam showed lots of snow there. This Miller B precip min is why I was worried last night. Now the models seem to be reflecting that concern. There may very well be a minimum; but I don't think the models will know exactly where that will occur. In years past it seems that hole has been just west of Raleigh towards Durham. But every storm is different and we'll just have to wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I know there will be a min, but that's a drastic min and it's unreasonably small. It also doesn't show up on the NCEP site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The new GFS has done pretty well with QPF right? I know it was miles better with the Boston blizzard a couple weeks ago where it showed NY City getting very little, while the Euro and Nam showed lots of snow there. This Miller B precip min is why I was worried last night. Now the models seem to be reflecting that concern. You can see the HRR by the end of it's run with a shadow of precip in central NC. By 05z we have accumulated .1-2" of precip, so another .2-3" of precip after this would be expected as the back edge is in western NC and is hauling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The 15z HRRR has precip getting in here a few hours earlier than the 14z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I know there will be a min, but that's a drastic min and it's unreasonably small. It also doesn't show up on the NCEP site. Sorry Widre didn't mean to focus on Durham but was particularly thinking of the Christmas storm from a couple of years back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That seems ridiculously low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Latest RAP is about 0.5" of precip by 9z, another couple of hours after this, get's close to 0.6" or so. All things pointing to 0.5" of QPF for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That seems ridiculously low. Looks like the 15z HRRR is going to look different. Be careful with those SR models at long leads. They're so volatile with changes every hour (every run). The precip shield is a little south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Sorry Widre didn't mean to focus on Durham but was particularly thinking of the Christmas storm from a couple of years back.I was talking about the one from the map on the last page. We do often have a min here, but that's with the coastals. With this storm, more precip west than east, so I'm less concerned for Durham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portsmouth Weather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hey southeast crew... I've updated my HRRR page so that it covers the snow/ice event in the southeast. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#flt I also have HRRR soundings for select locations. I am willing to add more locations so let me know! Good luck with the even everyone! KGSO KAVL Could you post those soundings for southeast Va/Ne NC as well. Really appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Latest RAP is about 0.5" of precip by 9z, another couple of hours after this, get's close to 0.6" or so. All things pointing to 0.5" of QPF for RDU.It's closer to 0.8" with that tongue. Not that I trust tongues of precip until I'm actually getting licked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Precip, almost moving into upstate at this time, riding I-85. And, as we'd like, it appears to be snow. We definitely want the precip shield to continue to expand up 85, and that snow line (newly created) in GA, to stay put. Unlikely, but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I added a few more HRRR soundings that should update hourly: KCLT KRDU KGSP FYI products update around :20 after the hour for the map plots, and :40 after the hour for the soundings. Let me know if you have any questions. The HRRR does look a bit on the warm side of CLT Thanks for adding the HRRR GSO floater too. Really nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Really just posting this so we can look back at how these models are doing. The latest HRR has precip reaching triangle by 9pm tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The RAP is still trying to shove the low into the Apps, LOL. Really wouldn't pay that much attention to it at this point aside from trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.