packfan98 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Brad Panovich has been putting out quite a few interesting tweets. I won't post them all here, but they are about how bad the models are busting on the dewpoints. Also, both the nam and hi-res nam are sleet fests for the Triad. Over .8" to fall as sleet! Looks like models are trending colder and wetter. Fingers crossed! #keepmypoweron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM and HRRR really having trouble with the surface temps...they are TOO WARM, rather significantly, this also includes dewpts, which in turn will affect the wet bulbs. I haven't looked at the upper levels, yet, though. We'll just have to see how all of this plays out now. Yup, down here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM and HRRR really having trouble with the surface temps...they are TOO WARM, rather significantly, this also includes dewpts, which in turn will affect the wet bulbs. I haven't looked at the upper levels, yet, though. We'll just have to see how all of this plays out now. This is interesting because our local NWS office has downgraded us to a WWA due to their belief the NAM is too cold with its temp profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The RGEM definitely got wetter that run. Much of central NC is 0.50-0.75" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwisephotog Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 anyone notice that central TN just got upgraded to an ice storm warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 http://www.srh.noaa.gov/epz/?n=wxcalc Does anyone have a good formula/calculator for evaporational cooling? It's going to take a while for the column to become saturated, and I'm wondering how much that may affect temps. DPs aren't going to be below zero when the precip arrives, but let's say they sit around 10, with air temps of around 30. I'm assuming DPs would rise much more than temp drops, but am unsure of the ratio. Can't find any calculations for this around, so I figured I'd ask. Apologies if this is not the time in Storm Mode, but it seemed relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Wow -- if you toggle between 6z GFS at 9 hours and 12z at 3 hours, you'll see a big difference with 850 temps. Pretty big shift for first frame in the run. #Colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Wow -- if you toggle between 6z GFS at 9 hours and 12z at 3 hours, you'll see a big difference with 850 temps. Pretty big shift for first frame in the run. #Colder did it initialize right that's the question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 12Z RGEM printing out decent snowfalls over NW NC. Awesome if this were to verify: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 gfs coming in colder than 06z. more snow for rdu, more in line with the recent rgem. changeover around hr 12 it looks like. snow to sleet to frz rain and looks like it may be ending as sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Huge (given time frame) surge of colder 850s into N.C. on 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The GFS still looks fairly similar. Still quite wet. Tons of precip between 00z and 03z this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The RGEM definitely got wetter that run. Much of central NC is 0.50-0.75" now. You look to be OK, but the triangle get's precip holed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM and HRRR really having trouble with the surface temps...they are TOO WARM, rather significantly, this also includes dewpts, which in turn will affect the wet bulbs. I haven't looked at the upper levels, yet, though. We'll just have to see how all of this plays out now. The models may not be that far off. Sunshine has been out all morning long here in the mountains and temps have risen into the mid and upper 30s. Still dry, but much warmer than any forecast I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The models may not be that far off. Sunshine has been out all morning long here in the mountains and temps have risen into the mid and upper 30s. Still dry, but much warmer than any forecast I saw. Crazy differences. It is only 22 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Anyone have a link to the wetbulb surface maps? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=17# EDIT: Hold your mouse cursor over "Winter Weather" and then click on "Surface Wet-Bulb Temp". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 HRRR continuing to come in considerably warmer over western NC showing a surge of warmer air at the surface around 1pm to 3pm. Will have to see how it plays out, it seems suspect, but it is indicative of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The GFS still looks fairly similar. Still quite wet. Tons of precip between 00z and 03z this evening. The GFS has been very consistent for a few runs in a row now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Sitting at 28.3 37% Been thick all morning, CAD working well in the NE flow The models may not be that far off. Sunshine has been out all morning long here in the mountains and temps have risen into the mid and upper 30s. Still dry, but much warmer than any forecast I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 LOL.. some folks saying models coming in colder. Then some folks saying warmer... Which is it? Let's just blend it all and things stay the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hey southeast crew... I've updated my HRRR page so that it covers the snow/ice event in the southeast. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#flt I also have HRRR soundings for select locations. I am willing to add more locations so let me know! Good luck with the even everyone! KGSO KAVL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The NAM is 8 degrees higher on the dew point at CLT at 15z than reported conditions. I don't recall off the top of thy head an incoming storm that had dewpoints below zero (F) here. Even the cold Jan 2011 wasn't that cold. Of course, warming aloft will win out. I think the NWS forecasts are good for this area. Up to an inch of snow/sleet, then something like 0.2-0.4 of ice. Euro/Euro Ens Mean are locked in around 0.6 of total QPF...looks like a good number to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 LOL.. some folks saying models coming in colder. Then some folks saying warmer... Which is it? Let's just blend it all and things stay the same. Looking at a profile of the atmosphere, at my specific location the GFS has been pretty steady with 850 temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Interesting the GFS is picking up the precip hole over the triangle, similar to the RGEM. The GFS is very cold, as is the RGEM, with temps in low 20's for most of precip with it bottoming at 19F for the triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 You look to be OK, but the triangle get's precip holed... Yeah the precip minimum in central NC is exactly what you'd expect to see from a Miller B. It definitely looks to me like the RGEM has the best handle on the situation. The relatively equal blanket of precipitation shown by some models just doesn't seem likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Interesting the GFS is picking up the precip hole over the triangle, similar to the RGEM. The GFS is very cold, as is the RGEM, with temps in low 20's for most of precip with it bottoming at 19F for the triangle. This is exactly what always happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 What?! No CAE? Seriously......Thanks Phil Haha I don't want to make you more depressed to see the rain sounding (but seriously I can add it if there is desire!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Interesting the GFS is picking up the precip hole over the triangle, similar to the RGEM. The GFS is very cold, as is the RGEM, with temps in low 20's for most of precip with it bottoming at 19F for the triangle. I would agree w/ the precip hole the gfs and rgem are showing. With this being a Miller B I believe the transfer is really going to kill our overall qpf. I definitely don't trust the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looking at GFS temps (850/700/925) it looks to be a lot of snow for GSO up to about 3z, per GFS. Looks to be a solid 3-4" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeah the precip minimum in central NC is exactly what you'd expect to see from a Miller B. It definitely looks to me like the RGEM has the best handle on the situation. The relatively equal blanket of precipitation shown by some models just doesn't seem likely. Looks like all the models have the big slug of precip rolling right on up I-85 now, which is nice for us. Probably heavy pingers after a good shot of snow. We rock at late-winter sleet these days. Looking at GFS temps (850/700/925) it looks to be a lot of snow for GSO up to about 3z, per GFS. Looks to be a solid 3-4" of snow. Seems to match up decently with the 12z RGEM, as well. The NAM was a little warmer, I think, but probably still a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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