metwannabe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The NAM does indeed look better. Colder than I've seen it for this storm in the mid-levels. 850s are still straddling I-40 in NC at hr 15. The precip moves in quicker, which, helps all our snow chances on the front-end. It is also very wet. Looks like it has increased QPF towards the GFS. Really looks like a raging ip storm here..... if this could just trend a touch colder I think you and I both would be in really good shape with more sn before any change over. Gonna be fun to watch as the day progresses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 precip shield has now cross the GA state line: wunderground regional radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwisephotog Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KHKYLooks like hickory stays mostly snow throughout the event.... or am i completly reading this wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks at the 850's warm at hour 21. Therefore, not a total snow event. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KHKYLooks like hickory stays mostly snow throughout the event.... or am i completly reading this wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwisephotog Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks at the 850's warm at hour 21. Therefore, not a total snow event. its at -8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KHKY Looks like hickory stays mostly snow throughout the event.... or am i completly reading this wrong? Looks like .64 of QPF falls as snow, and .36 as sleet. Rough estimates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Current wet-bulb conditions: And current 850 temperatures: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KHKY Looks like hickory stays mostly snow throughout the event.... or am i completly reading this wrong? 0.71" of sleet...so you're reading it wrong but it's ok...it's borderline. 0.35" of snow at onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 meant hour 24..where it warms. its at -8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Currently 23 with a DP of -8 with a solid overcast sky, I mean I cant think of any other time I have seen it this cold with DP that low and not have severe clear sky conditions much less overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Main precip axis definitely trending south on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM has about an inch of snow in CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I haven't seen this discussed, but at what point are our winds projected to shift? Winds are still NE right now, and with cold air, and extremely low DP, that wedge should really mean business, in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 12Z NAM snowfall map. I'm sure it's including sleet totals too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 12Z NAM snowfall map. I'm sure it's including sleet totals too: It has to be. Just looking at the maps(which is probably bad), I would say RDU goes from snow, to sleet, maybe freezing rain (850s get above 3c), back to sleet and then back to light snow. That would be crazy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwisephotog Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 12Z NAM snowfall map. I'm sure it's including sleet totals too: thats also with a 10:1 ratio.... could be a higher ratio if we get some of these heavier bands of precip falling....looks like the radar is lighting up across alabama on the HRRR with some storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I haven't seen this discussed, but at what point are our winds projected to shift? Winds are still NE right now, and with cold air, and extremely low DP, that wedge should really mean business, in my opinion. At least here, this afternoon. However wins here are already east at about 10mph. interesting to note that temps have dropped to 32 just northeast of birmingham when the nam says they should have warmed to 40 or 41 by now. In fact dewpoints are such they could drop another degree or two. Going to be real interesting to see how temps..especially since precip is well ahead of where the nam says it will be and maybe even the gfs. Incredible differences between the gfs and nam over north ga btw. nam and gfs are 10 degrees apart on surface temps in some areas, in particular between gainesville and atlanta/athens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The northern Upstate close the the mountians and Far northeastern GA might be a degree or two colder than progged because we are benefiting form a Northeast breeze blowing down the backside of the mountains. This area is coming from northcentral NC where the coldest/driest air is located right now. The Hi-res nam is picking this up well and punches subfreezing air down through this zone while looking fairly warm back towards Laurens county to the Rockhill area.... Notice the sharp change in direction of winds south of athens to greenwood... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Great pick up. I can attest to the NE flow as I was outside with Kids here at my school an hour ago. The northern Upstate close the the mountians and Far northeastern GA might be a degree or two colder than progged because we are benefiting form a Northeast breeze blowing down the backside of the mountains. This area is coming from northcentral NC where the coldest/driest air is located right now. The Hi-res nam is picking this up well and punches subfreezing air down through this zone while looking fairly warm back towards Laurens county to the Rockhill area.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 precip shield has now cross the GA state line: wunderground regional radar If you look at the current radar, the precip sheild definintely has a counter clockwise rotation to it. The rain is rotating northward and westward. By the time it gets to the carolinas, the snow and ice looks to be rotated away from us. While the rain can certainly run into colder air and transition, the rain that comes will bring that dratted WAA big time. If only it could have tracked due East instead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Again, it's clear that GSP/others are not buying the GFS/NAM totals (or really any other model totals). Having a hard time determining why much of the CLT metro (and surrounding areas), are below .4 total QPF in their maps. As I type, I realize that perhaps they are accounting for only around 50% ice accretion. This would make a bit more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The NAM is 8 degrees higher on the dew point at CLT at 15z than reported conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 If you look at the current radar, the precip sheild definintely has a counter clockwise rotation to it. The rain is rotating northward and westward. By the time it gets to the carolinas, the snow and ice looks to be rotated away from us. While the rain can certainly run into colder air and transition, the rain that comes will bring that dratted WAA big time. If only it could have tracked due East instead... I think that radar will fill in as the system pushes over the cold air in the carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks like the 12z RGEM may be coming in a tick south. Less precip up in WV thus run. It could just be noise, though. Looks like there's a little more early precip here on it compared to past runs. Might squeek out 2-4" of snow on it. 2M Temps look about the same. Looks like it might up precip totals, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The NAM is 8 degrees higher on the dew point at CLT at 15z than reported conditions. I am comparing the 6z run, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windrunner Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RGEM through 36hrs. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015021612/rgem_asnow_neus_12.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 rgem much better for rdu, nice coating of snow before switching to sleet/frz rain. much more snow for all of nc really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 rgem much better for rdu, nice coating of snow before switching to sleet/frz rain. much more snow for all of nc really. Yep, looks like this area is up to 3" snow on it now. It's been getting better on every successive run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Does anyone have a good formula/calculator for evaporational cooling? It's going to take a while for the column to become saturated, and I'm wondering how much that may affect temps. DPs aren't going to be below zero when the precip arrives, but let's say they sit around 10, with air temps of around 30. I'm assuming DPs would rise much more than temp drops, but am unsure of the ratio. Can't find any calculations for this around, so I figured I'd ask. Apologies if this is not the time in Storm Mode, but it seemed relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM and HRRR really having trouble with the surface temps...they are TOO WARM, rather significantly, this also includes dewpts, which in turn will affect the wet bulbs. I haven't looked at the upper levels, yet, though. We'll just have to see how all of this plays out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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