UpStateCAD Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GFS and NAM both show the same +6° warm nose during the height of the event overnight for RDU. Where did you pull these graphs from? Very good visual for looking at the air column temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 See Allen's map post# 2459 at 6:59 this morning. Ah thank you. Well crap I went from snow to sleet to freezing rain to cold cold rain. Oh well...such is life. Good luck everyone else! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Where did you pull these graphs from? Very good visual for looking at the air column temps. Use the dropdowns in the left column... http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KRDU&model=gfs&time=current&field=tempa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 BIG FROSTY Biggest thing I see is how quick a storm 8-10 hours maybe? couple days ago it looked like 24-30 hour storm? Why can't we ever get a long duration storm anymore? I seem to recall 3 straight days of snow 1 yr ago. This HRRR map (sometimes doesn't load but today it is functional) agrees... http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~slincoln/model/display_hrrr_t6.php it does seem to be a somewhat longer duration than 8-10... 7-8 hours after the onset of precipitation there is still half of the storm if not more remaining to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 6z 4km NAM where it thinks the precip breakdown will be...only thing saving this from being a crippling ice storm is the quick nature and the due east movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Use the dropdowns in the left column... http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KRDU&model=gfs&time=current&field=tempa Thanks.....now I remember....nothing availble for GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looking at the new SREF for RDU QPF is concentrated pretty well around .7-.8" Still shows a LOT of sleet and freezing rain... and the temperature forecast for the rest of the week is insane... high on Thursday of near 20!?!? Anything that glazes over tonight is gonna have a really hard time melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looking at the new SREF for RDU QPF is concentrated pretty well around .7-.8" Still shows a LOT of sleet and freezing rain... and the temperature forecast for the rest of the week is insane... high on Thursday of near 20!?!? Anything that glazes over tonight is gonna have a really hard time melting. Really hope that freezing rain stays more south of here. I still have nightmares about the 2002 ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The system is a strung out mess without much organization. I know its overrunning. But still I wonder what's going to happen to the upper level low remnants of the baja low as it continues its eastward progression. Heading for Texas now, then maybe acquire some surface level support along the gom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Brad Panovich quick update: .25 plus ice in Charlotte. Some sleet and snow. https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=828263807246077 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Latest RAP has a better thump of snow for my area (southern foothills) as show in the 12Z RAP raw text. 850 does not warm until hour 14. Until then, looks like greater than.25 has fallen.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 6z 4km NAM where it thinks the precip breakdown will be...only thing saving this from being a crippling ice storm is the quick nature and the due east movement. I'll take the sleet. Looks like .5 liquid which would be ~ 1.5" of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Latest HRRR at 6pm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 ^ Be nice if it would snow just a few flakes in the daytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 12z NAM coming in a bit faster and a good bit colder. EDIT: Well, that may not be right -- 2ms actually warmer in N.C. -- looks like colder 850s just a matter of timing -- coming in behind the low in Tenn. faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 sref plumes are a bit of an improvement over previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 9z SREF plumes coming in much wetter. Almost .25 more versus 3z run. Over 1.00 QPF at KAVL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 SREF plumes continue to suggest another burst of snow tuesday night. Just something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Latest HRRR at 6pm... Yeah it's continued to get a little more bullish on the FZRA threat for along/north of 85 in SC. Watching closely for a friend in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The NAM does indeed look better. Colder than I've seen it for this storm in the mid-levels. 850s are still straddling I-40 in NC at hr 15. The precip moves in quicker, which, helps all our snow chances on the front-end. It is also very wet. Looks like it has increased QPF towards the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Wow -- NAM much jucier over N.C. -- but 2m line in retreat (Shelby actually right at 0C at 15 hours per sounding, then up to -.5). Maybe heavier precip causing warming from all the latent heat from freezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Latest NAM-12km just amped up precip again around RDU, over 1 inch this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Thanks.....now I remember....nothing availble for GSP. You can use this for the GFS --- just change the airport code at the end of the URL. This one is set for KJNX http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KJNX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The SREF seems way to warm at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECUPiratewx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Latest NAM-12km just amped up precip again around RDU, over 1 inch this run If temps are largely the same, that's an awful, awful ice storm from FAY to RWI I'd think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The air behind the front is running about 3-5 degrees colder than expected across Central Texas this morning FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Strong warm nose from Columbus GA to Greenville SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Strong warm nose from Columbus GA to Greenville SC DW, would this result is mainly ZR for the immediate Greenville, SC area? (my current wet bulb temp is 22) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 DW, would this result is mainly ZR for the immediate Greenville, SC area? (my current wet bulb temp is 22) Almost certainly. That warm nose is advancing that way, it's just a matter of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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