QC_Halo Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Good morning Alan. Do you have any changes to what you posted yesterday based on the latest modeling? I'm hoping that the local schools are letting out early enough today in the Triad. The school I teach at is getting out at 1:45, with buses on the road for a couple of hours after that. Keeping my fingers crossed that no renegade moisture gets in here until after 4:00 when the wsw officially begins. You're not already out for Presidents day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think 1-2 inches of snow/sleet is pretty generous for Wake County... I think my reasoning is experience more than anything... Seen this scenario many times. Definitely see it being more of a freezing rain event than anything... Strong gradient over Wake Co. probably. Been through these many times too, counting on the near surface cold layer being a little deeper than model show, they often times underestimate this at the onset. WIll certainly changeover though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 6z GFS was just a smidge cooler for CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 6z GFS was just a smidge cooler for CLThello it's pretty close to game time, but it was also cooler here to your west.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Biggest thing I see is how quick a storm 8-10 hours maybe? couple days ago it looked like 24-30 hour storm? Why can't we ever get a long duration storm anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I am just wondering if sleet may be a large factor for everyone given how cold the sfc will be. Euro is still showing the trianle near 20 degrees in the early morning hours tomorrow. That's really really cold for a zr storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 hello it's pretty close to game time, but it was also cooler here to your west. However, like normal and the situations my county will be split in half north getting more than the south in terms of snow Sent from my iPhone Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Biggest thing I see is how quick a storm 8-10 hours maybe? couple days ago it looked like 24-30 hour storm? Why can't we ever get a long duration storm anymore?Hell naw man check out the radar! Juiced up back into the Arklatex region. This is gonna be going for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Biggest thing I see is how quick a storm 8-10 hours maybe? couple days ago it looked like 24-30 hour storm? Why can't we ever get a long duration storm anymore?The lack of blocking has fouled up our chances the whole winter. Can't sustain the cold during the precip and allowing lows to track north. Hopefully you get to see some flakes today and enough to plow a little! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hell naw man check out the radar! Juiced up back into the Arklatex region. This is gonna be going for awhile. Yes for you, you got a few hours head start on us! Skipped NC went straight to you.... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yes for you, you got a few hours head start on us! Skipped NC went straight to you.... lolI'm telling you man this whole setup looks good. I feel like overrunning events tend to overperform. I'm sure you'll be happy later on when it's pouring the snow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 One thing that's got me wondering, is even here in the upstate it looks like the height of the storm is going to be at night. Wouldn't that make it more so to be a frozen event due to it being colder during those hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 We're right in the thick of things... WRAL Weather 28 mins · Our winter storm is likely to start as snow in most of the viewing area. However, in the Triangle and surrounding counties we will likely see a change over to sleet and then freezing rain by 8-9pm. This map is a computer model image of how much ice may accumulate. At 1/4" we begin to see power outages. The darker color is 1/2". Widespread power outages are certainly possible with this scenario. -EG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Biggest thing I see is how quick a storm 8-10 hours maybe? couple days ago it looked like 24-30 hour storm? Why can't we ever get a long duration storm anymore? I seem to recall 3 straight days of snow 1 yr ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm telling you man this whole setup looks good. I feel like overrunning events tend to overperform. I'm sure you'll be happy later on when it's pouring the snow down. Yeah I'm not complaining, I suppose to get 4-8 so I'll be tickled with that. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I seem to recall 3 straight days of snow 1 yr ago. I got a short memory I guess? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Biggest thing I see is how quick a storm 8-10 hours maybe? couple days ago it looked like 24-30 hour storm? Why can't we ever get a long duration storm anymore? That's what happens with everything gets focused in the lead wave and there is no second round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I am just wondering if sleet may be a large factor for everyone given how cold the sfc will be. Euro is still showing the trianle near 20 degrees in the early morning hours tomorrow. That's really really cold for a zr storm. I think that's what a lot of TV mets are banking on, no one is sounding the ZR alarm maybe because of this... edit: Except Elizabeth G. of WRAL apparently...haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GFS is also wetter for CLT from 18Z-0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That's what happens with everything gets focused in the lead wave and there is no second round. Yep, I'll be happy with whatever I get, haven't had nothing but flurries all winter!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 South of 85 won't be, per NWS I live north of I-85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NWS backed off totals in Central NC to no one's surprise. I forgot who said NWS would give Wake 3" "only to back off of them last minute as usual"....on point. Widre maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GFS and NAM both show the same +6° warm nose during the height of the event overnight for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Sure looks like that area of over running precip out front of the main system is further south than what models were depicting, this could be really good for the NC/Va border area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Rapid influx of 850mb warming To show the force of the warmer air starting to flood in at the 850mb level, as of 7:45am this morning Mount Mitchell has rising to 30.6 degrees whereas just to the NE, Grandfather Mountain is still at 8.5 degrees and Beech is at 10.3 degrees. Winds at Mitchell are West at 21 and at Grandfather they are on the edge of turning from the SE to the West These observation points provide a real time method to track what is going on at the 850mb level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I just can't get over how cold is, but still a sleet sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looking at the 6z GFS low resolution p-types, it looks like Raleigh north and west might receive more sleet and escape a lot of the freezing rain. We can only hope. Again I would love 3" of sleet. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_030_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=030&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=area&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150216+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 BNA reporting FZRAGS...LOL...I doubt its really hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 In all serious does anyone know what it will look like around PGV? My concern is will it be a cold rain or freezing rain in this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 In all serious does anyone know what it will look like around PGV? My concern is will it be a cold rain or freezing rain in this area? See Allen's map post# 2459 at 6:59 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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