jacobr57 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's definitely not Apps Running, so put that fantasy to rest. It's basically identical at hr 21. Maybe a hair colder... as in by like 5 miles, so not really. Definitely not. Reiteration from GFS, SREF, and NAM put that to rest. This run seems very similar to the 18z, which means a lot of ice most likely. By the way, the 00z GEM ensemble was almost all snow. Probably not particularly meaningful at this point in time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's definitely not Apps Running, so put that fantasy to rest. It's basically identical at hr 21. Maybe a hair colder... as in by like 5 miles, so not really. 00z Euro .55qpf for GSO what did it have at 12z for GSO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It is a little colder across the board, looking at skew-Ts for GSO, anyways. The surface is a degree or two Celsius colder and the warm nose is a little less prevalent, though ultimately still there. Probably an inch or two of snow, then over to heavy sleet (maybe 1-2" of that). Looks like this run has a little more precip for CLT and RDU. 00z Euro .55qpf for GSO what did it have at 12z for GSO? About the same. Maybe 0.6" at 12z. A wash, really. The Euro seems to be the low outlier on precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Just Updated: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 000 FXUS62 KGSP 160851 AFDGSP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 351 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY SPREADING WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE A MOIST SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM...IR AND W/V SATELLITE PRODUCTS INDICATED A FIELD OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND DEEPENING MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS A VERY LARGE PRECIP SHIELD ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN. IN FACT...A BAND OF IC LIGHTNING NRN TX AND OK WAS LOCATED AHEAD OF MID LEVEL VORT MAX. RECENT RADAR COMPOSITE INDICATED AREAS OF LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WELL AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING STORM. HOWEVER...6Z SOUNDING AT FFC INDICATED VERY CONDITIONS BELOW H85...EXPECTED LIGHT RETURNS ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND. NEAR TERM MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES. I WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS...WITH FAVOR GIVEN TO THE NAM FOR THERMAL PROFILE DETAILS. DURING THE MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS...THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS LA/MS...AS 1027 MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL FRONTOGENESIS AND JET DIVERGENCE ACROSS TN/KY...SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY MID DAY. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MTNS UNTIL STRONG 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE 4 KM WRF... INDICATES THAT WELL STRUCTURED BAND WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 0Z TO 6Z...YIELDING THE PEAK PRECIP RATES FOR THIS EVENT. AFTER 6Z...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES A QUICK LOSS OF FORCING AND MOISTURE...WITH CONDITIONS DRY EAST OF THE TN BORDER COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK. P-TYPE FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINED FROM A BLEND OF NAM/GFS...WITH MAJORITY CONSIDERATION GIVEN TO THE NAM. BASED ON THE SFC TEMP FORECAST AND THERMAL PROFILES...MTN PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN AS SN/IP. DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...SLEET WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE P-TYPE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MTNS...WITH SN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. PIEDMONT AREAS DURING PRECIP ONSET SHOULD SEE SN AND IP...WITH RAIN ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THE LLVL WARM NOSE WILL GAIN GROUND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RESULTING IN FZRA OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85...WITH SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST ACROSS THE UNIFOUR AREA OF NC. BY LATE EVENING...PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS EITHER FZRA OR RA DEPENDING OF SFC TEMPS. THEN CAA WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SFC LOW DEPARTS...CHANGING PRECIP TO FROZEN ACROSS THE MTNS. BASED ON WPC QPF GUIDANCE AND P-TYPE FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT WARNING CRITERIA ICE WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85...NRN MTNS WILL RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO ICE. WARNING SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO THE NRN NC MTNS AND THE UNIFOUR AREA. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST I WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS IN THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION AND TIMING. HOWEVER...I WILL UPGRADE UNION COUNTY NC TO A WARNING AND REMOVE FRANKLIN COUNTY GA FROM THE ADVISORY GROUP. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Well, the 06z GFS is sure wet. Oh, my. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Well, the 06z GFS is sure wet. Oh, my. Yeah crazy wet wonder if it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Well, the 06z GFS is sure wet. Oh, my. Over 1.00 for all of WNC and the foothills down into the upstate. Looks like 1.25 in NW sc ... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Break Down Of Ptype Totals Through Hour 30. Total QPF Through Hour 30: Total Snowfall Through Hour 30: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Also new updated maps from GSP: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Over 1.00 for all of WNC and the foothills down into the upstate. Looks like 1.25 in NW sc ... Sent from my iPhone And if that is all ZR...oh my. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RGEM keeps trending better snowfall wise for Va-NC border. It also keeps moving the heavier snow axis further South with each run. On the other hand, it keeps tightening the gradient on the southern edge especially in western and eastern areas. From model site here... EDIT: On Goose's recommendation, I am 100% invested in this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 1.5" as of 530 eastern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwupstatewx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Some of GSP area didn't even get within 5-8 degrees of our forecast low this morning (Clemson already above freezing). This will be a rain event for everyone in SC, despite the continued WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Some of GSP area didn't even get within 5-8 degrees of our forecast low this morning (Clemson already above freezing). This will be a rain event for everyone in SC, despite the continued WSW.you are correct. Chris justice just had an update on fb and said ice for northern Greenville. Only thing I am worried about is dynamic cooling with few points at -4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Some of GSP area didn't even get within 5-8 degrees of our forecast low this morning (Clemson already above freezing). This will be a rain event for everyone in SC, despite the continued WSW. I was 6 degrees too high here in Gwinnett county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Some of GSP area didn't even get within 5-8 degrees of our forecast low this morning (Clemson already above freezing). This will be a rain event for everyone in SC, despite the continued WSW. Your wet bulbs are still well down in the 20s. Evaparational cooling will help temps cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 And if that is all ZR...oh my.South of 85 won't be, per NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 yea ive got a wet bulb of 23° If you are in the northern upstate, anywhere above the 85 corridor, you are in for one nasty Ice storm! Stay safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Your wet bulbs are still well down in the 20s. Evaparational cooling will help temps cool Good morning Alan. Do you have any changes to what you posted yesterday based on the latest modeling? I'm hoping that the local schools are letting out early enough today in the Triad. The school I teach at is getting out at 1:45, with buses on the road for a couple of hours after that. Keeping my fingers crossed that no renegade moisture gets in here until after 4:00 when the wsw officially begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Rgem was a little colder at 6z. In fact I think it would be a big bust snow wise for the VA crowd with not a lot of QPF falling up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 South of 85 won't be, per NWS Hope you prepared for our big rain storm! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 South of 85 where? Very broad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 South of 85 where? Very broad in south Carolina. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwupstatewx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 South of 85 where? Very broad South Carolina. Our crew is the early riser group Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hope you prepared for our big rain storm! Lolschools will be closed for a week bc of northern Greenville. But like said above I would not be surprised if we got .25 of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Rgem was a little colder at 6z. In fact I think it would be a big bust snow wise for the VA crowd with not a lot of QPF falling up there. It's all in the ratios toward the northern half of the state. AKQ has been mentioning 15:1 - 18:1 ratios in northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Guys, waking up this morning radar looks extremely healthy. Snow started about 6 hours ahead of schedule here in ROA lol dusting on the ground already. Temp 15.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 My final call fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think 1-2 inches of snow/sleet is pretty generous for Wake County... I think my reasoning is experience more than anything... Seen this scenario many times. Definitely see it being more of a freezing rain event than anything... Strong gradient over Wake Co. probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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