WxBlue Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm really surprised no one here is commenting on short range models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm really surprised no one here is commenting on short range models... They don't look so promising anymore lol I was rooting for the RAP all day until recently. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm really surprised no one here is commenting on short range models... Still kind of far out, really. Precip is still 18+ hours of range for most of us, so the short-range models do not cover it. In addition, they are usually pretty flawed out in the 10+ hours range, it seems. I'm sure we'll be focusing more on them tomorrow morning. Anyways, eyes now turn towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The Euro is a little south of last night. Decent ice storm for many. Heaviest precip is still up in C VA, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The Euro is a little south of last night. Big 'ole ice storm for many. It's really a carbon copy of 12z at first glance. Maybe a touch slower and farther south but really nothing of any significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's really a carbon copy of 12z at first glance. Maybe a touch slower and farther south but really nothing of any significance. Correct. I edited the post. Maybe a little lighter on precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Correct. I edited the post. Maybe a little lighter on precip. Yeah it's maybe a .10 lighter on precip. Snow map seems to have the snow a little farther south but need to check on temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeah it's maybe a .10 lighter on precip. Snow map seems to have the snow a little farther south but need to check on temps. CLT and RDU are icy on this run. Looks like we get a thump of snow to start, though it is impossible to say how much with the 6-hr panels. Looks like we're at about 1/2" QPF compared to 0.6" last run, IIRC. The Euro is definitely a low outlier on precip, it seems. We'll see what happens. Looks like the Euro lightened up some in C VA, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Correct. I edited the post. Maybe a little lighter on precip. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like a nice little hit of snow (2-4 inches) in the mountains before the warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like a nice little hit of snow (2-4 inches) in the mountains before the warm up. You know it's bad when the mountains can't even get over 4 inches of snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 CLT and RDU are icy on this run. Looks like we get a thump of snow to start, though it is impossible to say how much with the 6-hr panels. Looks like we're at about 1/2" QPF compared to 0.6" last run, IIRC. The Euro is definitely a low outlier on precip, it seems. We'll see what happens. 2-3" maybe? The 850s line is in VA on the 6z Tuesday panel so I'm assuming we probably only hold on a couple hours after 0z. It seems a little lighter on the precip everywhere but really for anyone who doesn't have access to maps just look at what was posted for 12z. It's not meaningfully different in any way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 2-3" maybe? The 850s line is in VA on the 6z Tuesday panel so I'm assuming we probably only hold on a couple hours after 0z. It seems a little lighter on the precip everywhere but really for anyone who doesn't have access to maps just look at what was posted for 12z. It's not meaningfully different in any way. Yeah, I would speculate that. Looks like we warm up to +2C at the highest at 850 mb, so we probably stay sleet rather than freezing rain. Who knows what will happen? Some large differences in QPF exist across the modeling with the Euro showing ~.5" while some models show ~1". I'd probably say that ~0.8" is most likely, as the SREF mean had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 What is the Euro showing for GSP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 What is the Euro showing for GSP? Looks like it has you guys at 30-32 with 0.7" QPF. No snow. All freezing rain, probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hope this is not right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hope this is not right. I really wouldn't worry about the LR RAP. The 04z run has us getting to 38 tomorrow, which is laughable. I've always gotten a sense that it's really only useful within 6-10 hours or so. I don't think it was made to look three-quarters of a day away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I really wouldn't worry about the LR RAP. It has us getting to 38 tomorrow, which is laughable. yup, just scary to look at. models took a 180 before. like the south trends tonight though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 06z RAP looks to follow up on the 05z right up the apps. If that happened, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The 03z SREF MSLP track looks about the same. Maybe a little less spread among the members. The plumes should be out soon. Looks like its less willing to take the storm up the coast, though. Could Boston actually miss out on a storm??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 06z RAP looks to follow up on the 05z right up the apps. If that happened, wow. This thing better not turn out to be a apps cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 06z RAP looks to follow up on the 05z right up the apps. If that happened, wow. The 06z NAM is about to come out to calm those fears. It really can't Apps Run, anyways. It would be a Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NICE looking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NICE looking! SPOILER: It's a app runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 SREF plumes similar to the last run - a lot of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The 00z Euro looks about the same here as 12z with qpf .62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Will we get robbed of moisture by storms to the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 the 06z NAM looks about the same to me. A little bit colder though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 the 06z NAM looks about the same to me. A little bit colder though. It's definitely not Apps Running, so put that fantasy to rest. It's basically identical at hr 21. Maybe a hair colder... as in by like 5 miles, so not really. The NAM continues to mostly spare NW SC from icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's definitely not Apps Running, so put that fantasy to rest. good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's definitely not Apps Running, so put that fantasy to rest. It's basically identical at hr 21. Maybe a hair colder... as in by like 5 miles, so not really. not to say the RAP and HRRR correct, but conceptually it makes sense. I hope all the other models are right though. not leaning on RAP and HRRR till tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.