NCSNOW Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Kinda looks like thrGGEM hits the wedge and rides, follows the southern periphery of it. Would make better sense then to come barreling through as has been presented by Larry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The UKMET looks like it is south and weaker, as well. Compare: 00z: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_030_0000.gif 12z: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_042_0000.gif Looks like almost all of the models are tracking the low near ATL to CAE, not up into E TN, that's good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Pretty big shift south the on the UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Definite shift south. Ukmet and GGEM. Ride I 20 corridor past Columbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Pretty big shift south the on the UKMET Nope, nearly identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 For those in dismay over this event in GA/SC/AL check out tonight's GFS/GGEM at 108-120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nope, nearly identical. sarcasm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The 00z GGEM edged a little further south and, more importantly, weaker. Looks to be the trend of the night. The main consequence is a little colder temps, but also less precip into KY, WV, and VA. Of course, the RGEM did, as well, so it is not really a surprise in a way. Looks like snow to IP to snow. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 sarcasm? Had to be, that's nearly an 80 mile difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Definite shift south. Ukmet and GGEM. Ride I 20 corridor past Columbia. Well that sounds good. Hopefully this will verify and keep me out of the ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yea ukie is nearly identical. The letter L is placed differently and it fools you at first glance. I'll take the 12z ukie results gladly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 sarcasm? The low jumps south because the pressure gradient is very low, so it doesn't really matter where you place the low itself. As far as precipitation, it's nearly the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yea ukie is nearly identical. The letter L is placed differently and it fools you at first glance. I'll take the 12z ukie results gladly. Even so, it is a little south with less isobar riding into the Appalachians and it is also weaker, which one would expect to bode well for us. Really, it's mostly a wash, though. EDIT: Looks like temps are the same, though, so meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The low jumps south because the pressure gradient is very low, so it doesn't really matter where you place the low itself. As far as precipitation, it's nearly the same. Oh okay. Thanks for the information! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 For those in dismay over this event in GA/SC/AL check out tonight's GFS/GGEM at 108-120 hours.Can you post them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I have beaten my brains in looking at data all day on the short range modeling & globals. The track right around the Midlands of SC (CAE) has been showing up quite a bit. It's a little bit better for you guys in NC, but it could have ice problems for the Upstate and NE GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 If I remember correctly, it's been so long ago after watching a gazillion short range models today, the 12z ukie keep us all snow and sleet. Fact front end was 3 here and like 5 just up your wsy, with pure sleet after. I'd take that in heart beat. Cause more is on the door step, espeacilly this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Did anybody just see brad p forcast for the next seven days? It's a winter weather lovers dream!!! Snow or flurries in the forcast basically the next 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 If I remember correctly, it's been so long ago after watching a gazillion short range models today, the 12z ukie keep us all snow and sleet. Fact front end was 3 here and like 5 just up your wsy, with pure sleet after. I'd take that in heart beat. Cause more is on the door step, espeacilly this weekend. I think every model has no freezing rain here, IIRC. Your area might get some more, though we should mostly escape with snow/sleet. The 00z NAVGEM is a little further south and slightly weaker, as well... not that it really matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 wow. RAP is horrible.. It's a apps cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The whole discussion about the SLP... Look at the link below(dec 2002) for a good animation of what is likely to happen. The overall evolution of the pj/stj waves are pretty similar to dec 2002. It's not as juicy as that system, but it's close. This is not going to be an amped/phasing situation, so the SLP is not as important. It will be a reflection of the upper levels and various sfc features. With the main upper low heading towards the Ohio Valley the slp will follow until the sfc features no longer support it(aka stationary CAD front), which will then cause a transfer to the coastal areas. There are a few climo positions where this generally happens, 2 being SE TN and Hatteras. There's been a lot of famous systems over the years that have given NC great winterstorms (ice or snow) that included miller b transfers from these 2 locations. This is not that rare and it's happened plenty of times before. Even in jan 96. Again, this doesn't favor all snow though. It favors snow to sleet in the foothills/nw piedmont and snow to ice over the eastern regions. dec 2002 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2002/us1205.php jan 96( this system in no ways compares to that one, but just for miller b purposes) http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1996/us0107.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yea ukie is nearly identical. The letter L is placed differently and it fools you at first glance. I'll take the 12z ukie results gladly. UKMet was virtually identical with 850mb and sfc temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 UKMet was virtually identical with 850mb and sfc temps It is interesting how it is warmer at the surface than other modeling, especially for S NC (same for the 12z run). Do you know how it usually handles CAD? Looks like it would still deliver a solid front-end thump here and in the foothills, as with the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It is interesting how it is warmer at the surface than other modeling, especially for S NC. Do you know how it usually handles CAD? Looks like it would still deliver a solid front-end thump here and in the foothills, as with the 12z run. It "has problems with shallow cold air." http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It is interesting how it is warmer at the surface than other modeling, especially for S NC. Do you know how it usually handles CAD? Looks like it would still deliver a solid front-end thump here and in the foothills, as with the 12z run. It use to have a south and cold bias...but it went through a significant upgrade within the last year. I was thinking about this earlier - a few days ago, the WPC model diagnostic outlook had indicated that it was the outlier with how it was focusing on the more northerly lead wave system, and they said their preference was the amped GFS that was keying on the second wave which sent the storm well north and warm...the opposite happened in reality - the UKMet was right all along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 MEX MOS has CLT at a high of 21 on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It "has problems with shallow cold air." http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.html Yeah, those write-ups are pretty old...I didn't realize that though about it not handling shallow cold air well (not sure if the upgrade changed anything there). That article mentions the south bias..and just from what I've seen in the past, it typically had a cold bias at 850mb (which would go with the south bias) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Accuweather posted this image at 9:45 PM. and this image: They must have their own special computers up there at Accuweather in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The core of the precip max on the 00z GFS runs from southern AR thru N MS, N AL, N GA, TN, then through NC, but with lesser amounts in NC. Curious to see what the Euro does tonight because on its 12z run, the core of the precip was in TN, then in KY thru southern West VA which is more along the lines of where I think it should be based on the setup...interested in seeing if it adjusts with tonight's run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Accuweather posted this image at 9:45 PM. They must have their own special computers up there at Accuweather in PA. Yeah it's called the NAC model....Not A Clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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