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Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx


burgertime

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12z UKMET was definitely further north than 0z...it led with the superbowl winter storm...let's see if it's a trend the other models follow everntually.

 

I agree, it looked a little north and when you look at the 5h map you can see that this doesn't lead to a suppressed solution.  No solution is off the table, the UK has been fairly good this winter.

 

Edit:  I should note, it's north of the other models, but it's definitely south of it's 0z run and a little slower.

 

QQ_GZ_UU_VV_072_0500.gif

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I know we have been worried about suppression of the system at times. Even though its a cold look now, I'd be more worried about the high pressure to the north moving off shore too soon (i.e. 12Z GFS), allowing heights to increase out ahead of the storm, allowing it to turn the corner sooner and have to rely on insitu cold air damning to maintain snow for the Piedmont of North and South Carolina. Even with an arctic air mass in place ahead of the storm, a stronger storm without high pressure support at our latitude could move us toward a trend of more ice and rain into the piedmont.

 

Yes, agree, rule #1 in this area is to always, always question temperatures

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One take away is still much spread in the globals so far at 12z.

 

12z GFS less on 1st wave, more on the 2nd wave.

12z CMC most on the 1st wave (moderate event) not much on the 2nd wave

12z UKMET, seems to make one bigger system.

 

Means we arent much closer to a consensus yet unfortunately.

Yep.....typically the case in the SE.  We usually don't get a consensus until the day before with a few exceptions like Jan. 88, March 93, Jan 96, Jan 11 to name a few.  Tough on forecasters as well as those of us in emergency mgt tasked with making sure we're prepared.  Haven't looked at analogs but sure seems similar to Feb 14. 

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CMC is great for N.GA/AL

 

It's ok but I'd much prefer last night's solution since it was wetter.

NAVGEM is grazing blow. 

it's a big hit for alabama, georgia and sc though. best of all of them in fact. too bad it's the navgem

 

hpcs take this morning

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1152 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2015VALID FEB 13/1200 UTC THRU FEB 17/0000 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST...12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION...INCLUDING PRELIMINARY PREFERENCESUPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHTDOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION INTO THE PLAINS BY SUN-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWFCONFIDENCE: AVERAGEDIFFERENCES HERE ARE RELATIVELY SMALL BUT THE 12Z NAM IS FASTESTOF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...WHILE THE 00Z UKMET IS MOREAMPLIFIED. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF/CMC ARE SLOWER...WITH THE 12Z GFSSITTING IN THE MIDDLE REGARDING TIMING. A BLEND OF THE SIMILARGFS/ECMWF SHOULD HELP TO RESOLVE TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 00ZCMC OFFERING UP A SECOND OPTION...AS IT IS SIMILAR TO THE 00ZECMWF...JUST A BIT FLATTER. THE ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE GFS/ECMWF ASWELL...MORE SO THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH/VORTEX CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTINTENSE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF NEW ENGLAND ON SUN~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: 12Z NAM...12Z GFS...00Z ECMWFCONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGETHERE HAS BEEN CONVERGING OF SOLUTIONS SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THECURRENT MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF APOWERFUL CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.CURRENTLY...THE 12Z NAM/12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENTON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE RESULTING SURFACE LOW...BUTTHE 00Z ECMWF COULD BE A LITTLE SLOW TO DEPART THE WAVE FROM NEWENGLAND SUN EVENING. THEREFORE A 3-WAY BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWFAPPEARS BEST AS EACH MODEL HAS SMALL DIFFERENCES FROM ONEANOTHER...BUT TOGETHER REPRESENT A GOOD COMPROMISE. THE 00ZUKMET/CMC ARE A BIT FARTHER OUT TO SEA OR WEAKER...AND THEREFOREWILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE COMPROMISE.CLOSED UPPER LOW MEANDERING OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH MON~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: NON 00Z UKMET COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGETHE GUIDANCE HAS BROAD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT BY SUNNIGHT...THE UKMET SHOWS A MORE STRONGLY DIGGING UPPER TROUGHTHROUGH THE WEST COMPARED TO THE REMAINING MODEL CONSENSUS. THISENDS UP INTERACTING WITH THE CLOSED LOW OFF NEAR THE BAJAPENINSULA...KICKING IT OUT TOWARD THE EAST FASTER WITH THE UKMETMODEL. THEREFORE...GIVEN A LACK OF SUPPORT FOR THE UKMET AT THISTIME...A NON 00Z UKMET COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED.SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE INTERIOR WEST ON MONDOWNSTREAM SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWFCONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGETHE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE TOPOF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...WITH THE ENERGYTHEN DIGGING DOWN THROUGH SOUTHWEST CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHWESTBY EARLY MON. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 00Z UKMET...DETERMINISTICAND ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI HEIGHT TRENDS HAVE BEEN FLATTER OVER THEPAST THREE OR FOUR 12/00Z CYCLES. THE 00Z UKMET HAS ACTUALLY BEENTRENDING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE.HOWEVER...RATHER LARGE SPREAD REMAINS...WITH THE 12Z NAM...12ZGFS...AND EVEN THE 12Z CMC TO SOME EXTENT...SHOWING TOWARD THEFLATTER SIDE OF THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE DISTRIBUTION. DOWNSTREAM...AWEAK SURFACE LOW IS BEGINNING TO GET PICKED UP BY THE ENSEMBLEMEMBERS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MON EVENING. THE 00Z UKMET...WHICHIS ON THE DEEP EDGE OF THE LATEST ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI HEIGHTS...ISOUTSIDE OF THE LATEST SPREAD WHEN IT COMES TO A SURFACE LOW IT HASDEPICTED OVER CNTRL TENNESSEE BY 00Z/17. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THECLOSEST TO THE GREATEST ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING AT THIS POINT...BUT ITIS UNKNOWN IF THE FLATTENING TREND WILL CONTINUE...REVERSE OR END....MODEL TREND GRAPHICS ATwww.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml......500 MB FORECASTS ATwww.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...
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It's ok but I'd much prefer last night's solution since it was wetter.

it's a big hit for alabama, georgia and sc though. best of all of them in fact. too bad it's the navgem

 

hpcs take this morning

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1152 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2015VALID FEB 13/1200 UTC THRU FEB 17/0000 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST...12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION...INCLUDING PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES{ Snip)...

 

Great post, thank you.

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Well, that's not bad, actually, Lookout. Even for NC, that's decent all the way to the mountains.

Indeed.

 

12z euro looks awfully similar to the 0z run through 84 hours. at 84 hours, snow across all of north ga and the western carolinas. very similar amounts. it might be a hair further south but not much.

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For those asking about supression, etc..remember the patterns in this region.  Things always tick NW.  I will be stunned if by kickoff we aren't seeing major ice across SC and NE GA while James and I are sweating out the 850's to keep pingermaggedon away and jack up the totals.

 

 

How it always seems to unfold in the SE

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