DopplerWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RAP ptypes out to hr 18 are closer to the gfs than the nam, with precip starting as snow in western nc and clt. where nam had a mix at the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Maybe it's just me but I feel that the orientation of the heaviest qpf in TN is more W to E versus SW to NE meaning higher qpf trending south of previous runs. If you were to take the same path and orientation then border counties are near the highest totals from this storm. Anyone else pick up on this?yeah I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 RAP ptypes out to hr 18 are closer to the gfs than the nam, with precip starting as snow in western nc and clt. where nam had a mix at the onset. I don't see any precip in CLT at 18...but I'm on the 3z RAP run. I also don't see how any would actually be falling with such dry air at the range the RAP would see in the next couple of hours since QPF is so light. The problem with 18 hours on the RAP is it's 18 hours on the RAP hehe. It'll be interesting to see what it say at around 8am tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RAP ptypes out to hr 18 are closer to the gfs than the nam, with precip starting as snow in western nc and clt. where nam had a mix at the onset. I don't get that, I always thought the NAM was good with temps. I also read where someone posted the new Op GFS is verifying to warm in the short term with temps, and RGEM isn't exactly a cold model. But, the GFS/RGEM are much colder than the NAM. Usually you take the warmest model as that's the most conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't see any precip in CLT at 18...but I'm on the 3z RAP run. I also don't see how any would actually be falling with such dry air at the range the RAP would see in the next couple of hours since QPF is so light. The problem with 18 hours on the RAP is it's 18 hours on the RAP hehe. It'll be interesting to see what it say at around 8am tomorrow morning. what im looking at, you're probably right it isnt hitting the ground though. and yea my clt geography was a little off on second look lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Gfs is much colder in the 850-700 level. More snow for the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The 13 km GFS looks to be picking up on some precip minima in the lee of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The 13 km GFS looks to be picking up on some precip minima in the lee of the Apps. If .75-1.00 is gonna be a minimum here in the lee then ill take it gladly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The 13 km GFS looks to be picking up on some precip minima in the lee of the Apps. Thanks for that, James. Kick us when we're down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Thanks for that, James. Kick us when we're down. you can have the 3 inches it's showing for me. Unless it was all snow then Well I'm gonna get greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwisephotog Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Thanks for that, James. Kick us when we're down. that puts out almost 2inches QPF for hickory.... looks like it snows a good 7 to 10 hrs here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Thanks for that, James. Kick us when we're down. I don't see it? Looks like .75-1.00qpf in the lee, right? I am colorblind hard for me to tell... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 that puts out almost 2inches QPF for hickory.... looks like it snows a good 7 to 10 hrs here. I know, but James is aware of how those of us living in the shadow of the Apps are very sensitive to relative minima. I don't see it? Looks like .75-1.00qpf in the lee, right? I am colorblind hard for me to tell... lol Yes, but that's still a relative minimum. Relative to the totals around it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I know, but James is aware of how those of us living in the shadow of the Apps are very sensitive to relative minima. Hey, man, I wasn't trying to rub salt in wounds or anything. Just an observation. Plenty wet for us all. Looks like the 00z NAVGEM is sticking to its guns. We'll see if it goes down in flames, though it's not that far off of the GFS, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 FWIW: I don't know model specifics or other frames of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 FWIW: I don't know model specifics or other frames of course. so rain for GSP instead of zr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I know, but James is aware of how those of us living in the shadow of the Apps are very sensitive to relative minima. Yes, but that's still a relative minimum. Relative to the totals around it. Ok, gotcha I thought it still looked like a lot of precip! But we still don't know if it will be right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 so rain for GSP instead of zr? Well, it's just a still frame from WLTX. Not quite sure what model it is and if it had ZR before or after of course. It's just an image showcasing that during heavy precip, it is rain at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 so rain for GSP instead of zr? The GFS has been supporting that a little bit IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The GFS has been supporting that a little bit IIRC. I asked what model and it was from the in-house RPM model. So, if someone else has access to more of that data; I'm sure many would like to see what the rest of the run looked like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Well, it's just a still frame from WLTX. Not quite sure what model it is and if it had ZR before or after of course. It's just an image showcasing that during heavy precip, it is rain at that time.we can only hope but I doubt it. Thanks for posting but I think the lp goes just a little more south and it gets ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Really looking like the Upstate of SC is going to get screwed out of any winter storm. Oh well, bring on spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I asked what model and it was from the in-house RPM model. So, if someone else has access to more of that data; I'm sure many would like to see what the rest of the run looked like. I'm pretty sure the RPM is just the WRF-ARW or NMM, I think ARW though. The 00z is updating now on WxBell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This is my forecast for CLT: Quick bust of snow, might be enough to coat the ground until saturation occurs. Sleet line rapidly moves north from SC and transitions to sleet accumulating about .1-.2" Low moves to the Carolina's and and sleet transitions to freezing rain accumulating .25-.75+" IF <.50": ice accumulates isolated power interruptions. Outage length: a few hours IF .50-.75": Ice accumulates scattered power interruptions Outage length: 12-24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The GGEM is way south fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The 00z GGEM edged a little further south and, more importantly, weaker. Looks to be the trend of the night. The main consequence is a little colder temps, but also less precip into KY, WV, and VA. Of course, the RGEM did, as well, so it is not really a surprise in a way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 If the Euro and the UKMET follow the GEM, I'll listen. Otherwise, it's probably an outlier. That would probably also explain why the RGEM is south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hey, man, I wasn't trying to rub salt in wounds or anything. Just an observation. Plenty wet for us all. Looks like the 00z NAVGEM is sticking to its guns. We'll see if it goes down in flames, though it's not that far off of the GFS, really. No worries here. I thought it was a friendly jab. It made me laugh actually. In a jaded way, of course. Ok, gotcha I thought it still looked like a lot of precip! But we still don't know if it will be right? Of course not. We never know if anything is right until it happens. But, I like our chances. Best one all winter so far. How about some current surface wet-bulbs: And, some current temperatures where a troubling nose of warm air is intruding through central GA to the upstate of SC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 If the Euro and the UKMET follow the GEM, I'll listen. Otherwise, it's probably an outlier. That would probably also explain why the RGEM is south as well. The UKMET looks like it is south and weaker, as well. Compare: 00z: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_030_0000.gif 12z: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_042_0000.gif EDIT: Might just be transferring earlier. Not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.