Cold Rain Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 CR, my guess would be 6-8 hours of precip for CLT and RDU. As discussed, we aren't getting the wide precip shield like they are from KY to VA. However, this precip is still being largely driven by warm advection which is the most reliable form of precip generation IMO. It looks like frontogenesis and jet level support are contributing as well...but the point being, I wouldn't expect the precip to be spotty and scattered...just not the wide swath like to the north. Ok, thanks. That's reasonable and makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 well gfs out to 21 looks pretty dang close to the rgem. snow for rdu early on. and changeover after hr 27 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yes way and temperatures above freezing for everyone east of Charlotte in the Carolina area south. I must remind you that we are in storm-mode and trolling is frowned upon. Take it to the banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 No trolling just my input. You mad bro? Why you mad I am not wishcasting things to happen. I just call it as I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 crazy differences between nam and gfs 24 hrs out. some snow for rdu then change to sleet then t frz rain at the very end while nam tries to slam us with frz rain throughout almost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Man, I wish I could see what happens in between hrs 27 and 30 on the 00z GFS. Skew-Ts on either side of it appear to be snow for the Triad with close to a half-inch of QPF in between, but it may warm up in the intermediate between the 3-hr panels. The clown map is crazy with 8-9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 00z is .75 of QPF for most of NC and that's mainly ZR with an onset of snow/sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Here's my sounding for 4pm tomorrow after .15 inches of liquid has already fallen... Looks like the GFS is throwing me a little bone here. Do I believe it?? No... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 So, everyone else can mention what they think but the guy without the opinion of HUGE storm and it being just rain is not allowed to? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45737-regional-storm-mode-members-please-read/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 No trolling just my input. You mad bro? Why you mad I am not wishcasting things to happen. I just call it as I see it.Well lay whatever you smoking down!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 So, everyone else can mention what they think but the guy without the opinion of HUGE storm and it being just rain is not allowed to? Ok, I'll bite. Why are you calling for all rain? I haven't seen that on the models and not seeing it on the soundings. Everyone is entitled to have an opinion but you need to back it up w/ some reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 00z is .75 of QPF for most of NC and that's mainly ZR with an onset of snow/sleet. Totals through 36 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The GFS is very wet over 1.00 most of WNC...quite a bit more snow on the front end especially mountain and foothill areas compared to the NAM, looks more like the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The trends up until now have trending further and further northwest and I follow trends in the models. I think mostly rain. I think the temperature on NAM was rising and the temperature has seemed to trend warmer on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ok, I'll bite. Why are you calling for all rain? I haven't seen that on the models and not seeing it on the soundings. Everyone is entitled to have an opinion but you need to back it up w/ some reasoning. He can't answer for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Totals through 36 Sent from my iPhone Not sure about ya'll but us folks in the northern upstate are in trouble! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The trends up until now have trending further and further northwest and I follow trends in the models. I think mostly rain. I think the temperature on NAM was rising and the temperature has seemed to trend warmer on the ground. Sounds good. Imo the nam 2m temps are out to lunch and usually are. I'm going more w/ the rgem due to it's track record. Also I believe the NW trend has stopped. But this is all my opinion and you're welcome to have yours. Btw, welcome to the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 He can't answer for a few days. LOL! Ok, I was just curious on his reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 00NAM gives RDU equal shares of ip/zr. 4/10's of each this particular run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 00z GFS actually has some light snow on Wed associated with the cold. I'm guessing an arctic front snow. That would be some high ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 00NAM gives RDU equal shares of ip/zr. 4/10's of each this particular run. I don't know that I trust those p-types. The soundings are awfully warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think this at least includes snow and sleet, but here is the clown from the GFS. You can see that it's a major winter storm for much of NC/upstate SC. whether it's snow, sleet, or freezing rain, not to be taken lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Not sure about ya'll but us folks in the northern upstate are in trouble! looking at the graphics on SV, it does look that the upstate does go above freezing at the surface for alot of the precip. I'll wait until I can see the bufkit before i can get a better feel for it. Of course like many have said neither the NAM or GFS handle the surface level temps well in wedges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Main news over last 12 hours of model runs for CLT/US 74/I85 corridor is the GFS has capitulated to the NAM -- at least partially -- on the warm nose. The 12z GFS showed most of the precip as SN for KEHO (Shelby) with very little ZR. Now, the 0z shows only the first 3 hours is snow (and even then it could be a mix); then sleet, then freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Not sure about ya'll but us folks in the northern upstate are in trouble! yep, I feel for you folks in the freezing rain bull's-eye. Stay safe down there. I am hoping for a deep enough cold layer to keep us out of the zr and stay mostly sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 yep, I feel for you folks in the freezing rain bull's-eye. Stay safe down there. I am hoping for a deep enough cold layer to keep us out of the zr and stay mostly sleet.Thanks Man, yea these storms like this gets scary in a hurry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looking at skew-Ts over that period, it looks like we're [GSO] snow up to hr 24, then over to heavy sleet with a warm layer from 750 to 850 mb. Temps below 850 are below freezing, so I think sleet rather than freezing rain would be the dominant P-type in this area. Interesting to note that the GFS seems to have no such warm layer. In fact, no layer of the atmosphere appears to go above freezing on the three-hour increments. I'm not sure which model we should really be trusting more with mid-levels at this point, though the NAM seems to have support from the RGEM for those panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Accumulation maps for the RGEM courtesy of the AmWx Model Center: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think this at least includes snow and sleet, but here is the clown from the GFS. You can see that it's a major winter storm for much of NC/upstate SC. whether it's snow, sleet, or freezing rain, not to be taken lightly. Maybe it's just me but I feel that the orientation of the heaviest qpf in TN is more W to E versus SW to NE meaning higher qpf trending south of previous runs. If you were to take the same path and orientation then border counties are near the highest totals from this storm. Anyone else pick up on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The gang to our north isn't gonna take to lightly to the gfs cutting there nam totals down. That gfs lines up with the 12z ukie. Course I ain't getting 6 to 7 snow, half of that is sleet. So give me 2 to 3 and inch of sleet, less than a tenth of frzng rain on top maybe. Be a pretty scene. Someone is in a very bad spot, not sure where, but my guess is upstate to just south of charlotte. .5 to .75 frzng rain is lights out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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