superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The 00z RGEM looks to have come in colder/snowier for central NC. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Not sure on accumulations yet. Looks like it snows for longer than last run... perhaps as a result of the overrunning precip being a little further south. EDIT: Maybe not colder, but wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RGEM anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Is there any way to find out the mean freezing rain or are you just looking at the plumes, the mean QPF output, and the P-type pops? The SREF plumes here indicate mostly snow at the start, then predominantly sleet until close to the end, by which time most of the 0.83" QPF has already fallen. I still think NWS RAH's 3-5" call looks good here. QPF looks to be in the 0.75-1" range and I think we can manage 1-3" of snow before the changeover. The predominant P-type should be sleet, which falls at a 3:1 ratio, which means we can probably manage a few inches of pingers. Add those together and 3-5" seems reasonable. I'm just looking at the sounding overview on bufkit, not the SREF plumes website although you could view those in bufkit as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 SREF 24 hour qpf looked drier but the mean on the plumes was the same so not sure what is up with that? NAM looked a little wetter. Warm nose above 850 MB could become an issue for sleet but have not seen soundings. I looked at the sounding for GSO earlier and the warm nose was above 850 so don't trust the blue line. It was getting close here to so curious to see 00z. For anyone looking at ZR, hope you do not lose power. With the cold modeled for late week, no power would be really bad. Hmm that's the first i've heard that the warm nose is above 850. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Where's Pack? He loves that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Canadian RGEM looks essentially the same on the p-type loop this run. It doesn't look warmer or drier just going by this loop http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Canadian RGEM looks essentially the same on the p-type loop this run. It doesn't look warmer or drier just going by this loop http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Looks wetter over the northern Piedmont, though? The 18z run was pretty dry, IIRC, with most of the early moisture lost north of the VA border. 00z: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_024_0000.gif 18z: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_18/P1_GZ_D5_PN_030_0000.gif Precip/temps look a tick south to be at hr 24 on the Model Center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nice longer bump of Snow around here also (southern Foothills) as it starts. Also, looks to be more sleet then FR on this run.. The 00z RGEM looks to have come in colder/snowier for central NC. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Not sure on accumulations yet. Looks like it snows for longer than last run... perhaps as a result of the overrunning precip being a little further south. EDIT: Maybe not colder, but wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Where's Pack? He loves that model. Looking at the RGEM, ticked a hair weaker/south. Precip gets in here at about 5pm starts as snow then to sleet then frzn. Roughly .6" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Canadian RGEM looks essentially the same on the p-type loop this run. It doesn't look warmer or drier just going by this loop http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Yea that is one nasty Ice storm for upstate SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks heavy on the QPF also..... Yea that is one nasty Ice storm for upstate SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The 00z RGEM looks to have come in colder/snowier for central NC. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Not sure on accumulations yet. Looks like it snows for longer than last run... perhaps as a result of the overrunning precip being a little further south. EDIT: Maybe not colder, but wetter. yes it looks good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks heavy on the QPF also.....We could easily see atleast 1/2" ice out of this which would be devastating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeah james, I didn't really do a heavy compare with the RGEM loop...but just noted that it wasn't worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 not sure if it is worth anything but the rgem is a good hit here, front end snow but still a heck of a lot of frz rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeah james, I didn't really do a heavy compare with the RGEM loop...but just noted that it wasn't worse Haha, yeah, I am in over-nitpick mode right now being right on the line. It's coming out on the Model Center now, so we should have a better look shortly. The clowns for the RGEM differentiate between snow, sleet, and freezing rain, so they may be worth a post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RGEM looks to have temps in mid 20's for RDU for duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hmm that's the first i've heard that the warm nose is above 850. thanks Yea, I can't figure out those funny graphs but text soundings are pretty cool. Just use you closest airport code and model. When RAP is in range it is deadly. 40km NAM give 3 hour intervals so pretty good at close range too. http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 According to Goose, rgem has the hot hand by landslide in short range model world over the past year or 2. We shall see. Hope he's right cause I want as little to do with frzng rn as possible. I'll gladly take what the 12z ukie has and work on my sleigh riding while waiting on the weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RGEM looks to have temps in mid 20's for RDU for duration. Ugly ice storm unfolding in NE GA. Some areas are over 1" ZR by hr 27... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks good to me!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ugly ice storm unfolding in NE GA. Some areas are over 1" ZR by hr 27... Wow I really hope that doesn't happen to anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 James does rgem get heavy ice back to athens, atlanta? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RGEM looks to have temps in mid 20's for RDU for duration.Nam says above freezing for RDU. Lots of variance for being less than 24 hrs out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ugly ice storm unfolding in NE GA. Some areas are over 1" ZR by hr 27... I bet RGEM has several inches of snow for you. RDU is snow for roughly 3 hours on RGEM, about .1-.15" QPF, so 1" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 James does rgem get heavy ice back to athens, atlanta? Heavy rain for those areas. I bet RGEM has several inches of snow for you. RDU is snow for roughly 3 hours on RGEM, about .1-.15" QPF, so 1" or so. Yeah, looks like 2-3", verbatim, before going over to sleet. Very close to a little more or a little less, so there's some variance there. It's about double the snow the 18z ran had. The 18z also had zero snow for RDU, and now it looks like maybe an inch for you guys. Looks like it's onboard with the frigid surface temps, too, as we fall into the low 20s and maybe even the teens. Other modeling supports these frigid surface temps, too, so it will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nam says above freezing for RDU. Lots of variance for being less than 24 hrs out! LOL, NAM is not above freezing for RDU, never gets above 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks wetter over the northern Piedmont, though? The 18z run was pretty dry, IIRC, with most of the early moisture lost north of the VA border. 00z: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_024_0000.gif 18z: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_18/P1_GZ_D5_PN_030_0000.gif Precip/temps look a tick south to be at hr 24 on the Model Center. Nice catch. Looks like more solid precipitation in the latest run to me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Terrible ice storm for the southern mtns per rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Look, not trying to be a debbie downer, but If the main precip shield is along or north of the NC/VA boarder, it's been my experience that the precipitation south of that is light and non-uniform. That's how it usually looks in situations like this. So we're going to have to wait until the main north/south oriented band comes through. That will be good for what, about 2-4 hours of solid precip? I'm not even discussing warmer temp possibilities of a later onset or of light/spotty precip raising dewpoints or latent heat release via zr. Why are those concerns not warranted? CR, my guess would be 6-8 hours of precip for CLT and RDU. As discussed, we aren't getting the wide precip shield like they are from KY to VA. However, this precip is still being largely driven by warm advection which is the most reliable form of precip generation IMO. It looks like frontogenesis and jet level support are contributing as well...but the point being, I wouldn't expect the precip to be spotty and scattered...just not the wide swath like to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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