GreensboroWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Calm down everyone.... I REALLY didn't see a lot of differences in the latest run....NC and many other areas are going to get a WINTER STORM. Lots of snow and sleet....I don't think the NAM is handling the temps correctly, though. Don't get sucked in to what some other posters are saying...I'm not sure what they're seeing, but it's always half empty for many of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Why do I end up being right? It's plain as day that the deformation zone is set up across Kentucky into VA. It's also plain as day that we have, at best, in situ CAD, and no other cold air source. It's also plain as day that the low will be travelling across NC. That's never a track that supports prolonged wintry precip. Tell me which of those things is wrong before you tell me I'm going full retard. Yeh, except none of those things are clear as day. None. Hasn't even formed yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Not to really "agree" with anyone, but the timing is looking less than ideal as we'll have most of the day to warm with precip hitting around dusk. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeh, except none of those things are clear as day. None. Hasn't even formed yet....You've got the argumentation all wrong. You can't assume that unlikely weather will occur unless proven otherwise. You have to assume that likely weather (rain, warm, nothing) will occur unless proven otherwise. So don't assume a favorable track or a cold air source. The models show neither. Why would you assume they are just going to show up? That's not how this works. That's how wishcasting and weenieism works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Why do I end up being right? It's plain as day that the deformation zone is set up across Kentucky into VA. It's also plain as day that we have, at best, in situ CAD, and no other cold air source. It's also plain as day that the low will be travelling across NC. That's never a track that supports prolonged wintry precip. Tell me which of those things is wrong before you tell me I'm going full retard. It's not going to travel across NC, it's a miller b. It will redevelop off of the coastaline b/f ever tracking near NC/SC. Even this run is showing mid 20's for most of the storm w/ .8 fall at rdu. I think the idea of a snowstorm has been off the table for a while now in the triangle. Enjoy your ice bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's not going to travel across NC, it's a miller b. It will redevelop off of the coastaline b/f ever tracking near NC/SC. Even this run is showing mid 20's for most of the storm w/ .8 fall at rdu. I think the idea of a snowstorm has been off the table for a while now in the triangle. Enjoy your ice bro.We won't get significant ice accumulations without a cold air source. I've never seen it happen. Temps rise quickly with freezing rain. We'll hit 32 overnight pretty quickly and accretion will level off. I've seen it happen time and time again. If we're not getting sleet, we're basically not going to get much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 21Z SREF mean for Asheville. I have no word... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Not to really "agree" with anyone, but the timing is looking less than ideal as we'll have most of the day to warm with precip hitting around dusk. TW It's ususally not a great time for the precip to come in but I think in this case, with the unusually cold temps and dry dewpoints we have, and if it clouds up early morning the warming should be kept to a minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Why do I end up being right? It's plain as day that the deformation zone is set up across Kentucky into VA. It's also plain as day that we have, at best, in situ CAD, and no other cold air source. It's also plain as day that the low will be travelling across NC. That's never a track that supports prolonged wintry precip. Tell me which of those things is wrong before you tell me I'm going full retard. Let's just watch the event unfold.... It's basically a now-cast storm at this point. I will be paying more attention to the short range models and radar trends from here on in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 We won't have massive power outages with 0.25" of ice. Sorry.It's winter storm warning criteria! I guess they just pick random coating thicknesses to annoy people? I think .25 inch coating of freezing rain can bring down limbs and knockout power, and with below 0 temps a few days later, would kind of suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Let's just watch the event unfold.... It's basically a now-cast storm at this point. I will be paying more attention to the short range models and radar trends from here on in. latest hrrr has majority of the initial precip well above the nc/va state line. seems to keep trending firther north as we go. rap has the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's ususally not a great time for the precip to come in but I think in this case, with the unusually cold temps and dry dewpoints we have, and if it clouds up early morning the warming should be kept to a minimum. Yeah, the timing has been predicted as sometime around late afternoon/evening this whole time, so I doubt that timing will be much of a concern since any significant snow is already off the table in most places. I think it goes without saying that everyone needs to take a chill pill; besides taking the necessary precautions for possible hazards like power outages, all we can do at this point is wait and see, rather than get our collective panties into a massive wad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Let's just watch the event unfold.... It's basically a now-cast storm at this point. I will be paying more attention to the short range models and radar trends from here on in. Agree, Robert said watch RAP tomorrow... NAM out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 We won't get significant ice accumulations without a cold air source. I've never seen it happen. Temps rise quickly with freezing rain. We'll hit 32 overnight pretty quickly and accretion will level off. I've seen it happen time and time again. If we're not getting sleet, we're basically not going to get much of anything. lol, ok. I would suggest pitching a tent in a pine forrest tomorrow night. Just make sure you bring your helmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Let's just watch the event unfold.... It's basically a now-cast storm at this point. I will be paying more attention to the short range models and radar trends from here on in.I never knew temps could possibly be an issue, but I've been at 32 degrees for 3+ hours, cloudcover came in quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Pretty much lock in step with GFS here. .75-1.00 Same here. The 850 line dances just to our NW for the majority of the storm after starting out as snow. Kind of frustrating. Precip hammers from hr 24-30. Looking at skew-Ts over that period, it looks like we're snow up to hr 24, then over to heavy sleet with a warm layer from 750 to 850 mb. Temps below 850 are below freezing, so I think sleet rather than freezing rain would be the dominant P-type in this area. Correct me if I'm wrong, but this is a sleet sounding, right? Deep sub-freezing BL layer and it's cold. Probably 1-2" of snow and 2-3" of pingers this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 lol, ok. I would suggest pitching a tent in a pine forrest tomorrow night. Just make sure you bring your helmet. The way the models have been trending epically towards ICE for RDU I'm not sure how someone can say we won't get much of anything. That's hilarious. I think we may be a day away from a devastating ice storm. I hate the trends for that reason. The 21z SREF just showed 0.80" ZR...come on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Let's just watch the event unfold.... It's basically a now-cast storm at this point. I will be paying more attention to the short range models and radar trends from here on in. This is an interesting debate for you NC folks (since we're all pretty much out of it down here unless a miracle happens). Even though Widre may be glass half empty, Larry's (GaWx) statistics about historical low tracks do back up his point. Hard to get a decent winter storm up there with this type of track.....it just doesn't happen. That being said, this system has thrown everyone for a loop, so a surprise could occur, but there has been quite a bit of wishcasting and "gut feelings" on the positive side that will make no difference in how this plays out. The way winter usually goes in the SE. - Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwupstatewx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Latest 21z SREF plumes showing a better chance of plain rain for Greenville SC area, FYI. Even for northern Upstate SC, the trends have not been our friend. Will look to RAP to fight the warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Update from GSP: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Look, not trying to be a debbie downer, but If the main precip shield is along or north of the NC/VA boarder, it's been my experience that the precipitation south of that is light and non-uniform. That's how it usually looks in situations like this. So we're going to have to wait until the main north/south oriented band comes through. That will be good for what, about 2-4 hours of solid precip? I'm not even discussing warmer temp possibilities of a later onset or of light/spotty precip raising dewpoints or latent heat release via zr. Why are those concerns not warranted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The way the models have been trending epically towards ICE for RDU I'm not sure how someone can say we won't get much of anything. That's hilarious. I think we may be a day away from a devastating ice storm. I hate the trends for that reason. The 21z SREF just showed 0.80" ZR...come on... Is there any way to find out the mean freezing rain or are you just looking at the plumes, the mean QPF output, and the P-type pops? The SREF plumes here indicate mostly snow at the start, then predominantly sleet until close to the end, by which time most of the 0.83" QPF has already fallen. I still think NWS RAH's 3-5" call looks good here. QPF looks to be in the 0.75-1" range and I think we can manage 1-3" of snow before the changeover. The predominant P-type should be sleet, which falls at a 3:1 ratio, which means we can probably manage a few inches of pingers. Add those together and 3-5" seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Iam about on hour NE of GSP and to the 21 Plume continues to over .7" of total QPF manily sleet and Freezing rain with an initial Snow bump. This has been constant during the SREF plumes today. Latest 21z SREF plumes showing a better chance of plain rain for Greenville SC area, FYI. Even for northern Upstate SC, the trends have not been our friend. Will look to RAP to fight the warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Correct me if I'm wrong, but this is a sleet sounding, right? Deep sub-freezing BL layer and it's cold. Yeah, that looks like sleet to me James Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Look, not trying to be a debbie downer, but If the main precip shield is along or north of the NC/VA boarder, it's been my experience that the precipitation south of that is light and non-uniform. That's how it usually looks in situations like this. So we're going to have to wait until the main north/south oriented band comes through. That will be good for what, about 2-4 hours of solid precip? I'm not even discussing warmer temp possibilities of a later onset or of light/spotty precip raising dewpoints or latent heat release via zr. Why are those concerns not warranted? Were we at 60 today and 50 tomorrow with temps forecast to be 32/33 I wouldn't be worried. However we have big time cold now and temps forecast for NC at the warmest 32 but more like 28 for most. Even if you have spotty heavy rain all you need is .25 - .50 of liquid to turn this into power outages and car wrecks. This is going to be what falls freezes and sticks. I don't know why GSP is getting worked up...they should have just called Widre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeah, that looks like sleet to me James Thank you. I think that's the warmest it gets here. 1000-850 looks good for the entire storm, so it looks like we may very well escape ice here, except lingering freezing drizzle at the end. The NAM thus far has been the warmest of all modeling, so if it isn't showing much freezing rain, we might get off without it. NWS RAH seemed to think we wouldn't get any freezing rain aside from some lingering freezing drizzle on Tuesday morning. Asheboro, NC has the freezing level more down towards 900 mb, which seems a little more dubious. Might go to ZR there for a much longer period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Update from GSP: that is a lot of ice for sw NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Is there any way to find out the mean freezing rain or are you just looking at the plumes, the mean QPF output, and the P-type pops? The SREF plumes here indicate mostly snow at the start, then predominantly sleet until close to the end, by which time most of the 0.83" QPF has already fallen. I still think NWS RAH's 3-5" call looks good here. QPF looks to be in the 0.75-1" range and I think we can manage 1-3" of snow before the changeover. The predominant P-type should be sleet, which falls at a 3:1 ratio, which means we can probably manage a few inches of pingers. Add those together and 3-5" seems reasonable. One thing to remember is the pingers will do quite a compression job on the snow. Actually I really like this type of storm - inch of snow, couple inches of sleet, and then about .10" of freezing rain to tie everything together. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Were we at 60 today and 50 tomorrow with temps forecast to be 32/33 I wouldn't be worried. However we have big time cold now and temps forecast for NC at the warmest 32 but more like 28 for most. Even if you have spotty heavy rain all you need is .25 - .50 of liquid to turn this into power outages and car wrecks. This is going to be what falls freezes and sticks. I don't know why GSP is getting worked up...they should have just called Widre. I hear ya. Just that I have seen these systems under perform on QPF moreso than going the other way. I guess if it's only zr now, that would be a good thing if it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 SREF 24 hour qpf looked drier but the mean on the plumes was the same so not sure what is up with that? NAM looked a little wetter. Warm nose above 850 MB could become an issue for sleet but have not seen soundings. I looked at the sounding for GSO earlier and the warm nose was above 850 so don't trust the blue line. It was getting close here to so curious to see 00z. For anyone looking at ZR, hope you do not lose power. With the cold modeled for late week, no power would be really bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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