tarheelwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 We all knew the precip on the NAM would need to be dialed back a bit. No surprise here, right? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RAP contines to have much colder 850mb temperatures in SC on Monday afternoon. In fact, it looks like it's' snowing in far Northeastern GA at 2pm per the latest RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nam dryer than 18z run for bulk of NC. Depends on your location. Iam still .75 or greater In my area of the foothills ... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM is mostly freezing rain for a lot of folks, except far W NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 2m freezing line has been retreating every so slightly through S.C. toward the N.C. border with every NAM run. Now, finally, with 0z run, it has reached CLT -- at 6z Tuesday, when the heaviest precip is falling. In fact, nowhere in S.C. is subfreezing at 2m at 6z, according to 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM is mostly freezing rain for a lot of folks, except far W NCWhich will really just end up being rain with no cold air source and the self-limited nature of ZR. Triangle is getting very close to being out of the game here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I love how some live off the models...this is not going to be a "nothing storm" for some this will be crippling.That "some" is called Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Depends on your location. Iam still .75 or greater In my area of the foothills ... Sent from my iPhone And 0.97" for KAVL...most of that falling as freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That "some" is called Virginia. Yeah go to the MA forum and the excitement is almost sickening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Which will really just end up being rain with no cold air source and the self-limited nature of ZR. Triangle is getting very close to being out of the game here. Even it we got 0.5" of QPF that was all freezing rain, not all of that accrues, so 0.25-.3" accrual. Meh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nam dryer than 18z run for bulk of NC. Pretty much lock in step with GFS here. .75-1.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Even it we got 0.5" of QPF that was all freezing rain, not all of that accrues, so 0.25-.3" accrual. Meh...Which is basically a nice glaze that melts by the afternoon. Not warning criteria, not an actual problem for this area at all. We'll have more problems with puddles refreezing Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That "some" is called Virginia. We're still getting around .75-1.00 inch in Asheville with 90% of that being ice. This is definitely not a "nothing" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Even it we got 0.5" of QPF that was all freezing rain, not all of that accrues, so 0.25-.3" accrual. Meh... Maybe not there, but here when its falling at 22 degrees, no bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Which is basically a nice glaze that melts by the afternoon. Not warning criteria, not an actual problem for this area at all. We'll have more problems with puddles refreezing Tuesday night. Umm, definitely warning criteria. 0.25 is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The NAM was a tick stronger with the low and maybe 25 miles north, why we are seeing the freezing line creep north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Umm, definitely warning criteria. 0.25 isWe won't get 0.25" of anything, I can guarantee that. Look at the trajectory of the precip. It's not headed for central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 And 0.97" for KAVL...most of that falling as freezing rain I thought western NC stayed snow a little longer, bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hasn't posted all winter but comes out now to dump on everything. He's just saying what the model is showing, it's sounds like he is dumping but it is what it is. .3-5" inch of ice accrual per NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I thought western NC stayed snow a little longer, bummer. CAD areas do.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The NAM is not more north. It's speeding up because the miller B transition is delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 So is the NAM or GFS solution the more believable solution at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I thought western NC stayed snow a little longer, bummer.sleet basically. We might get lucky and get 2-4 before going to sleet and a raging ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 He's just saying what the model is showing, it's sounds like he is dumping but it is what it is. .3-5" inch of ice accrual per NAM. Which is easily warning criteria and a major winter storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I thought western NC stayed snow a little longer, bummer. Not really for Asheville. Warm nose ended that chance and it's so strong we're getting mostly ice rather than sleet. We'll be ground zero for this ice event if things doesn't change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Why is anyone taking the NAM 2m temps at face value? It's always too warm during any type of CAD/Hybrid CAD/Wedge. Just look at what Larry posted for GA on average for today it was +2 too warm. Also you can never take QPF at face value with the NAM...best to cut it by at least 25%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 We're going to end up with a skinny line of dissipating freezing rain, ending as drizzle here in the Triangle. I really hate Miller Bs. I mean if it's a Miller B or nothing, I'll take it. But it doesn't feel good. At least the precip depiction on the Nam now feels much more realistic. But if you go by my rule and cut the Nam in half, you'll end up with another failed WSW. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Why is anyone taking the NAM 2m temps at face value? It's always too warm during any type of CAD/Hybrid CAD/Wedge. Just look at what Larry posted for GA on average for today it was +2 too warm. Also you can never take QPF at face value with the NAM...best to cut it by at least 25%. I would normally tend to agree about cutting NAM QPF, but with it being in lock step with the GFS, I'd say it's probably right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Must you go full retard mode b/f every storm?Why do I end up being right? It's plain as day that the deformation zone is set up across Kentucky into VA. It's also plain as day that we have, at best, in situ CAD, and no other cold air source. It's also plain as day that the low will be travelling across NC. That's never a track that supports prolonged wintry precip. Tell me which of those things is wrong before you tell me I'm going full retard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 We're going to end up with a skinny line of dissipating freezing rain, ending as drizzle here in the Triangle. I really hate Miller Bs. I mean if it's a Miller B or nothing, I'll take it. But it doesn't feel good. At least the precip depiction on the Nam now feels much more realistic. But if you go by my rule and cut the Nam in half, you'll end up with another failed WSW. We'll see. agree, trends are obvious. i highly doubt we see any snow in rdu. probably sleet to frz rain and it wraps up before sunrise tues. not being a downer, just being realistic. gawx stats on an event like this with a low tracking like this one will just doesnt support a major nc winter storm. climo wins everytime. and now we know the new gfs still has the nw trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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