burrel2 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 the 00z RAP lines up perfectly with 18z GFS in terms of 850mb temperature over the Upstate at 1pm Monday. The 18z NAM is an absolute torch compared to these two so it's a good sign that the RAP is following the GFS here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 00z NAM rolling.. much drier off the bat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Isn't the overrunning the HRRR shows basically in line with what all the globals and regional models showed, anyways? I think SW VA/KY/WV was supposed to get that tongue of overrunning for the last couple days. It is unfortunate, though I don't think unexpected. Yeah James, not so much unexpected, I was just sharing some thoughts regarding the fact that a north trend in the mid levels isn't just detrimental to temperatures...it's also detrimental to precip amounts. The precip shield that works across NC won't be as wide a swath as it will be to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgrego72 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 the soundings at clt are bad saying .6 of ice right now I guess concord would be similar Courtesy of Brad Panovich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think there's a shift on the 0z NAM .. already by hour 9 there some precip breaking out over LA ... I think the trough is digging farther south a tad.. Don't know if that's going to make any difference though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think there's a shift on the 0z NAM .. already by hour 9 there some precip breaking out over LA ... I think the trough is digging farther south a tad.. Don't know if that's going to make any difference though. It does look a little south out to hr 12. It's nickpicky, but at 12 hours out every little detail matters. It wouldn't take much to turn this into a bigger storm for some folks, anyways, so small details may matter. I'd also say that it is a little faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I also added the change from one run of the RAP or HRRR't total precip compared to the previous run. So think of it as if the 18z RAP showed 0.75 at your station and the 19z RAP showed 0.5 it would show up as -0.25. I attached a sample of the RAP change for the 23z run minus the 22z run. So if I'm reading this right the more southern part of the system strengthened between runs more relative to the northern part?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM looks a little colder at 2m and a little south to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't know what y'all are seeing. I see a stronger low and the precip oriented more SW to NE rather than W to E. Neither of these are good for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't know what y'all are seeing. I see a stronger low and the precip oriented more SW to NE rather than W to E. Neither of these are good for NC. I agree. Track looks nearly the same thru hr20. Slightly colder for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The RGEM has been pretty unstoppable inside 24 hours the last 1-2 years, the RAP has been better than the HRRR this winter I've found I'll keep my eye on the RGEM then. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM at the same position if not a tad north. what the low does when its in AL is key to this system. NAM weakens high therefore a trend to the north is noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 850's are way warmer than gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 850's are way warmer than gfs.And yet colder than the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 And yet colder than the 18z. You putting your money on the nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 1z rap continues the south trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 You putting your money on the nam?I'll put my money on what actually falls out of the sky tomorrow. I was simply reporting what I was seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 1z rap continues the south trend. Where do you get your RAP info from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Boy that's a lot of precip on the NAM for the piedmont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'll put my money on what actually falls out of the sky tomorrow. I was simply reporting what I was seeing. I agree!!! If you put your money on the NAM, It want take long you'll be busted!!!! JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM is a little warmer across southern NC at the sfc. 32 deg sfc temp is right at CLT at hr30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Is it just me or does this run of the NAM look a little closer to ending as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'll put my money on what actually falls out of the sky tomorrow. I was simply reporting what I was seeing. A tick north, stronger low which puts precip max further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Where do you get your RAP info from? NCEP website -> http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=rap&area=namer&cycle=20150216%2001%20UTC¶m=1000_500_thick&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Boy that's a lot of precip on the NAM for the piedmont Miller B looked to be delayed some also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 With dew points being as low as they are, I don't see temps increasing to 32 that fast... if at all. I don't think the models are handling that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 00z NAM is further north and a little stronger. Temps are strangely the same or a little colder. Either way, not a good run for NC. We're starting to trend into a position of having a lot less precip. It may be a nothing storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nam dryer than 18z run for bulk of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOD Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'll put my money on what actually falls out of the sky tomorrow. I was simply reporting what I was seeing. Good idea. The Nam simulated radar at 3 hours is pretty off from what the actual radar is showing regarding coverage and southern extent. It also does not have the northern tongue in the correct orientation or extent versus what is showing on radar in Missouri and Illinois. I think now cast and real time observations upstream are going to be as accurate as any thing else for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 With dew points being as low as they are, I don't see temps increasing to 32 that fast... if at all. I don't think the models are handling that well.The temps increase before precip arrives, so DPs won't make much of a difference. Cloud cover is going to control that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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